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Tuesday, 10 February 2009

Dr. Doom & Black Swan: You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet

By: Brooke Sopelsa, Writer/Producer

Nouriel Roubini and Nassim Taleb are widely credited with predicting the current financial crisis, and both told CNBC they see more rough waters ahead.

Even if we play our cards right, said Roubini, chairman of RGEMonitor.com, it will take at least 12 months to get out of this recession.

“If you don’t do everything right, and I think there’s a large probability that’s going to happen, then we may end up in a multi-year stagnation or near depression like the one that Japan had,” he added.

Roubini said there is still a 20 percent downside risk to U.S. global equities, and he advises investors to stay in cash until there is a real bottom.

“Officially the write-downs have been about $1 trillion; I see another $2.6 (trillion) coming up,” he said. “…Losses are mounting and this severe recession is going to get only bigger.”

Nassim Taleb, advisor to Universal Investments and author of The Black Swan, is not as bearish as Roubini but also sees more trouble ahead.

“If I follow my logic to the end, what I thought would happen was anything fragile…would break, namely the banks and people who have a lot of debt and private equity," he said. "This is just happening. It’s not finished yet; it hasn’t probably started."

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