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Wednesday, 29 July 2009

Good post by CNA Forummer Colby

Its true we have not seen the bottom. Nobody has come out with concrete evidence of bottom, only vague blind firing called green shoot is called bottom.

If the water is purposely muddy, how do you know if it is shallow or deep. Likewise, the economy is muddied with bailouts and stimulus so nobody could know the depth of abyss recession, what more to point the level of bottom.

Its almost like a replay of late economic crash of 1920s, early 1930s. The economy was crashing, but like a vortex, it attracts more victims seeking profits and greeds from the crash. This was why the Great Depression lasted a long time.... cos there was steady supply of victims for the economic failure.

Notice the eerie similarities, asset property bubbles, people addicted to high-life and overspend even with business prospects collapsing around.

The China central bank knew the cheap bank loans to help their economy recovery is funneled into the bubble stock markets. This is why the govt notify their local banks, but its too late to stop because the regulation body is not ready to control the bubble. This is China's first recession, so nothing will go according to plan.

All desperate investors in China rather take cheap bank loans and quicky punts on stocks than use it to create industries which they have seen folded by the thousands. It took years to build industries in China only to maybe see it fold in weeks and months, but stock play takes only a short time to get started.

This high octane stock bubble will burst when the stocks cannot produce return because there is no critical mass in industries to generate the profit.

Goldman Sachs and their cohorts are doing pump and run on emerging markets, and since they see the bubble burst is inevitable, they'll rather be part of it to squeeze profits from winners and losers alike. They'll rake in gains on the bull rally, and run and short on its bear run.

Since it may be the last time before the banks combust under towering debts, their bold desperation for bonuses is understandable.

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