Global recovery still uncertain

MADRID - THE global economy could start to recover at the beginning of 2010 but the degree of uncertainty remains substantial, Bank of Spain governor Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said on Tuesday.

'Today, the majority of institutions that are developing forecasts agree that the restoration of the global economy could take place early in the year ahead. But the level of uncertainty is enormous,' he told a conference in Madrid.

'There is a Chinese proverb that says we cannot say that a man was happy before the last day of his life. We should probably take the same precautions to discuss resolution of the crisis,' added Mr Fernandez Ordonez, who is also a European Central Bank Governing Council member.

In April the International Monetary Fund predicted global economic growth of 1.9 per cent in 2010, after a contraction of 1.3 per cent in 2009. In January, the IMF had predicted an economic contraction of just 1.1 per cent next year.

Mr Fernandez Ordonez added that governments and policymakers had largely avoided the mistakes of the financial crisis of 1929 when governments adopted protectionist and nationalist measures.

'One of the worst scenarios of the crisis may have been avoided: the de-globalisation of the financial system,' he said. -- AFP


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