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Sunday, 8 March 2009

Courtesy of CNA forummer "Jobseekerer"

Normally a depression ends in a war....
that is why no one wants to admit it is a depression.

However, things are building up to a number of potential wars.

Let us look at the scenarios:


Scenario 1:

usually it starts with some innocent "nationalisation" of a plant, an oil field, a foreign asset which is viewed by the host country as sensitive, critical to their survival, or the owners of the asset are considered as working against the interests of the host country.

But underlying all these reasons are a couple of real reasons:
- to distract attention to local woes
- to get back at some foreign elements that are not supportive of the government of the day
- to use an excuse to acquire an asset, especially an exhaustible asset like oil, or commodities, without having to pay for it

When that happens, the company will enlist the help of the mother country to retrieve the assets, especially when the legal means are exhausted.

A trigger at any point along the way will create a spark.


Scenario 2

Countries lay claim to the same asset, usually an island or coastal region or past historical record
eg the Spartley islands, the Indo-China Himalayan borders, the Iranian claim to Qatar, and neighbouring states, Japan-Russian claims to islands taken during WWII, historical record showing Russia owned Atlaska etc

the main reason include the presence of submerged oil and other mineral resources, prestige of the country, history, imperialistic tendencies of the past.

A trigger may be used to distract the people of these countries from their current woes to focus on superordinated goals, raising nationalistic fervour.

when will these happen?

Soon........some hotspots are now developing, so you just have to keep alert

1 comment:

Eric said...

Hopefully, Hillary Clinton is doing her best to defuse the political time bombs during her 'whistle-stop' tour of Europe and the Middle East right now.
Thanks, Janny for your thought-provoking newsletter.

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