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Monday, 9 March 2009

There's a Long Way to Go Before the Bottom, Invesco's Garnick Says

U.S. stocks moved modestly higher early Monday, overcoming big declines in Asian markets and Warren Buffett's dour comments in an extended appearance on CNBC this morning.

The early action, aided perhaps by another big merger in big pharma, is encouraging traders and pundits who believed Friday marked some sort of important short-term market low. But "there's a long way to go" before the market or the economy bottoms, says Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco, which has over $400 billion in assets under management.

After being bearish for most of 2008, Garnick adopted a more bullish stance in early 2009, telling me on Jan. 7 that bad fundamentals were "already priced into the market."

But the fundamentals have worsened significantly in the past month, says the strategist and author of the forthcoming book "I'm Smarter Than My Boss. Now What?" Today, neither economic data or prospects for corporate earnings supports a bullish stance.

Like many, Garnick sees 500 for the S&P 500 as a likely outcome before this bear market ends; the only question seems to be whether we get there in a straight line or make a detour to higher levels first.

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