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Thursday, 22 January 2009

Singapore in a sling

Published: January 21 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 21 2009 02:00

In good times, governments have the luxury of fretting about an ageing population. In bad times, they start to worry about a vanishing one. Singapore, the beneficiary of a population that grew by almost a fifth during the economy's recent fairytale years of high growth and low inflation, is undergoing a sharp reversal . Almost two-thirds of 796,000 new positions since 2003 were filled by foreigners, mostly in construction and financial services. Of them, 200,000 will leave by 2010, reckons Credit Suisse, causing the population to fall 3.3 per cent to 4.68m.

As harsh as that looks, the prediction implies that the economy merely gives up the jobs it created in 2008 and a portion of the new jobs in 2007. The reality could be far worse. Many expatriates took their leave during a shallow Sars-related recession in 2003, causing population growth briefly to dip below zero. This time, companies will cut deeper. Fourth-quarter gross domestic product contracted 12.5 per cent - the worst on record. The electronics assembly sector, accounting for two-fifths of non-oil exports, has been hard hit.

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