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Friday, 8 August 2008

Confirm Singapore 2009 will has recession

Courtesy of CNA forummer: Johnlaw2012

It is now clear that all G7 economies are headed towards a recession; the US is in a recession; the UK is headed towards one with the bust of their housing; Japan - as recognized today by its government is entering a recession; Italy's economy is comatose and borderline in recession; Canada had negative growth in Q1 and its economy is tied to the US; while Germany and France (as well as Ireland and Spain and Portugal especially but also the rest of the Eurozone are headed towards a recession.

So all of the G7 economies are now in a recession or headed in the short run towards a recessionary hard landing. Add to these G7 the recession in the rest of the Eurozone (starting with Spain Ireland and Portugal but by now all of the Eurozone as industrial production, sales and business confidence are plunging in all of the Eurozone). Add also the recession in Estonia, Latvia, the risk of hard landing in South East Europe (Bulgaria Romania Hungary and Turkey) and the recession in New Zealand

These generalized recession in the advanced economies will soon lead to a sharp growth slowdown in the BRICs (Brazil Russia India and China) that is already evident in the data and a significant growth slowdown in the rest of emerging market economies.

A sharply slower global growth starting with the G7 recession, falling commodity prices, an increase in global investors' risk aversion, falling equity markets in emerging markets (EM), the weakness of the US dollar and the rise of EM currencies both in nominal and real terms, a tightening of monetary policies in emerging markets to control inflation, the effect of the global liquidity and credit crunch, the risk of a sudden stop and reversal of capital inflows in those EMs with large current account deficits) (the 20 countries in Europe from the Baltics to Turkey as well as India, South Africa and other capital importing EMs) are the factors that will lead to a sharp growth slowdown in the EMs as well as downward pressures on their equity and other financial markets

While the world will technically avoid a global recession (defined by the IMF as global growth below 2.5 percent) it will get quite close to it by mid 2009 as global growth will slow down to a near recessionary 3 percent"

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