The Second Financial Tsunami has arrived, faster & deeper

For those betting on a China leading the recovery story...beware.


第二波金融海啸已到来 比预期更快更严重

(北京综合讯）因编著《货币战争》而闻名、并提前预警金融海啸的中国学者宋鸿兵表示，各国救市政策并没有阻止金融危机蔓延，“第二波海啸比预期来的更快、更严重”。
　　据中国媒体报道，他表示，第二波金融海啸已经到来，危机可能在今年下半年或明年上半年提前深化，引爆“利率火山”。所谓“利率火山”，就是由于信贷全面紧缩导致长期贷款利率飙升，引发将近600万亿美元（918万4800亿新元）利率掉期衍生品市场崩盘，导致更大规模金融市场如骨牌一样崩溃。

　　首先，已公布的美国多项经济指标非常差。美国2008年第四季国内生产总值（GDP）较上一季下跌3.8％，创26年来最大跌幅；续领失业金人数增至478万人，12月新屋销售较上月大跌14.7％，为1963年1月开始记录以来最低。

　　其次，美国商业银行体系暴露的问题越来越严重。美国银行最近公布17年来首个业绩亏损季度报告，新收购的美林证券亏损不断加剧。花旗集团受呆账和不良资产重创，近15个月以来已亏损285亿美元（436亿2780万新元）。“未来花旗集团、美国银行或许只有国有化一条路了。”

　　第三，企业债市场恶化程度比此前预测的更快。去年11月宋鸿兵预测，“企业债和地方政府债券”将是第二波金融海啸的引爆点，尤其是企业债中的垃圾债。当时他预估，垃圾债券的违约率将在今年9月底从2.68％急速爬升至12％至15％，急升500％。

　　宋鸿兵认为，花旗银行被国有化或申请破产保护，将是第二波危机中的“标杆性事件”。“从恶化速度看，花旗在上半年就会出现大问题。”

　　他指出，全球经济在未来一段时间都前景不妙。现在美、欧、日的经济数据显示出二战结束以来最严重的经济衰退，足与1929年大萧条时代相提并论。而美国这次衰退的时间可能长达10年至15年，“至少在5年内很难真正走出衰退”。

　　他认为，“中国还不具备率先复苏、拉动全球走出衰退的能力。因为中国还不是世界经济的发动机。”

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