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Double Dip Recession? More Like Depression Says Peter Schiff

By Jeff Macke Peter Schiff, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, isn't one of those guests Nesto and I have to badger for opinions. Ask him a question and the long-time bear will tell you exactly what he thinks with vigor, even when he has an aching throat. Schiff thinks the U.S. is headed not just for a recession but rather a full-blown depression. On the upside, he believes the coming economic situation will look familiar. "The Depression [in the wake of the financial crisis] was temporarily interrupted by a bunch of stimulus which ultimately weakened the economy further," says Schiff. He adds the government's likely knee-jerk response of stimulating is, "probably going to be the fatal dose, the lethal dose" prior to "a complete economic collapse." Which is precisely why Schiff wasn't among those expecting a debt deal relief rally last Monday morning. The attention paid to the deal was a "massive victory for propaganda that would have done G...

The Global Economy Is Falling Apart

But the recovery can still recover. Here's how we got in this mess -- and how we might yet get out. The economic panic attack just went global. Stocks are collapsing across the world from London to New York to Tokyo. The Dow plunged 300 513 points* and the S&P fell even farther, as U.S. markets suffered the worst nine-day slump since March 2009. Meanwhile two-year Treasuries hit a record low. Central banks are intervening in Japan and Europe. Everything seems to be falling apart at once. Why? And can the U.S. avoid slipping back into recession? Before we continue hyperventilating, let's review how we got here. A Month of Awful News June was a very weak month for the U.S. economy, and our data from July so far isn't looking good. Some quick highlights: Hiring was nearly stagnant in May and June. Real consumer spending fell from April through June. Small business optimism has been falling four months running. Home sales continue to struggle. The manufa...

Tricky interview question: You have 10 sets of gold bars and only one is defective. How do you work out which one?

A candidate for an analyst position at a private equity firm in Hong Kong was asked the following question… The question You have 10 stacks of gold in front of you. Each stack is made up of 10 gold bars. One of these stacks contains defective bars that all weigh 10.1kg, rather than the standard 10kg You have scales, but you are only allowed to turn them on once and you can only read the weight on the scales once. How do you find out which gold stack is defective? The candidate’s reply I could not provide a definitive answer and gave a probability-based reply which did not impress the interviewers. How he would have responded in hindsight I should have taken a minute to think it through. I would place on the scales one bar from stack one, two bars from stack two, and so on. Only when the final 10 bars from stack 10 were loaded would I look at the scales. The decimal point on the scales would indicate which stack was defective – i.e. if all the gold bars weighted 10kg, then the scales wo...

Tricky interview question: Here are the CVs of your rival candidates – why should I hire you over them?

This finance techie in Singapore came up against an interviewer who didn’t mind flaunting the resumes of rival job hunters. The question The interviewer showed me CVs of other short-listed candidates and later he even placed them side by side on the table for me to compare. He asked: Why should I hire you over them? The candidate’s reply I responded that CVs are private and confidential and that I didn’t know the strengths and weakness of the other candidates. I could only perform a SWOT on myself. The interviewer didn’t care for this. He then told me I faced a “Tribal Council” situation (as per in the reality show Survivor where a participant is eliminated at the end of an episode). I simply responded with a list of my strengths and weaknesses. How he would have responded in hindsight The interviewer seemed in an interrogative and confrontational mood and I think he was probably expecting a similar aggressive response from me. How would YOU have answered? Use the comments box below to...

Some Final Words on Money and Happiness

by Laura Rowley I spent this week in Ohio at my brother-in-law's funeral. He died at 58 of a brain tumor after a long battle that he fought with diligence and patience and quiet humor. At a Catholic funeral, the priest gives a homily, or short talk, on the Bible readings. If you want a homily, the priest said, look at Bob's life. Bob was married 38 years, a father of five, an engineer, the guy who volunteered to wire his parish church when personal computers first came out. He was the runner who competed in dozens of 10K races with his whole family, but never got an individual trophy because he insisted on keeping pace with the slowest runner. With Bob, no one was left behind. He grew up one of eight children in a small town in Illinois, the son of a postman and a homemaker, where he took the American dream to heart. He was loyal, faithful, kind and positive in the extreme. We used to joke about how Bob would say hello with a bone-crushing hug and then tell you, four or five ti...

Are Retirement Calculators Reliable?

by Walter Updegrave Based on my age, investments and the amount I'm saving, an online calculator suggested that my chances of being able to retire with the money I'll need is a virtual slam dunk. How confident can I be that my investments will actually earn enough over the next 40 years for me to retire? -- D.M. I'm not a math wiz or a quant by any stretch of the imagination. But when it comes to making retirement planning decisions, I think it's important to look at the numbers. That said, whenever you rev up an online tool or calculator, you've got to remember that you're dealing with estimates (often very squishy ones) not certainties. So common sense dictates that you take the results with more than a couple grains of salt. Let's take the case of retirement calculators. Most project how large a nest egg you might accumulate -- and, in many cases, how long it might last -- based on a number of factors, including how much you've already accumulated, ho...

I’ve worked at Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs. Now I run a bar. I have no regrets

Shree Ann Mathavan Singaporean Colin Tay went from banking to beers when he left the financial industry after nine years. Formerly from Deutsche Bank, he now runs two businesses with a partner: Old Empire, a gastro bar, and TSA Wines, a beer and wine distribution company. He speaks to eFinancialCareers about his decision to give up the corporate life. My former life as a banker I studied economics and finance at the University of Sydney, so when I returned to Singapore in early 2002, I started looking for banking jobs. I saw banking as something lucrative, a safe route, especially since the sector was booming in Singapore. When I first started, I didn’t have any specific preference on which area I wanted to get into, I just wanted in. I am a people’s person though, so I thought a role where I dealt directly with clients would suit me. My first job was at OCBC. I worked in retail banking, quality assurance, and finally I assisted a private banker. Three years later, I joined Goldman Sac...