Time the Market at Your Peril
by Laura Rowley Stocks have been fluctuating sharply since the Japan earthquake, tsunami and subsequent nuclear crisis. As Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners, told the Associated Press Tuesday: "It's a situation where you sell, and you ask questions later," he said. That's why it may be helpful to look at what happened to investors who bailed out during the last sharp market decline. T. Rowe Price recently did an analysis of investor returns based on the financial crisis in the fall of 2008. On Oct. 6, a well-known television commentator (unnamed in the analysis) advised viewers to take any money out of the stock market they might need in the next five years and put it into safe-haven investments. The analysis assumed investors who heeded this advice on that day shifted their money in short-term Treasury bills. T. Rowe Price then compared those returns to stocks and a diversified portfolio through Dec. 31, 2010. U.S. stocks indeed continued to f...