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Sunday, 31 May 2009

Money thrown time and timeshare again

SINGAPORE: Instead of calling it quits after pouring so much money into certain questionable timeshare deals, some customers keep buying similar investments over and over again.

Retiree Wong Liang Yong, 69, is one such investor. He has spent close to S$80,000 since 1996, when he bought two timeshare investments for S$25,000.

"We did enjoy the timeshare holidays but when I retired in 2002, I found the S$1,000 in maintenance fees costly to upkeep and wanted a way out," he said.

In 2004, a timeshare company LGM approached Mr Wong to terminate his two contracts and promised him a cashback of around S$25,000 within five years. The catch: He had to pay S$10,000 upfront, which he did.

Mr Wong went on to sign two more resale timeshare contracts. In February this year, another timeshare firm Maxmega Group promised him a cashback of S$104,000 within 18 months, but he had to fork out S$35,000 first and he did.

Two weeks after signing the contracts, Maxmega told him that "they had problems with LGM as it had been suspended".

"They said Maxmega is an agent for Colco Ventures — a firm that has taken over all the timeshares all over the world, and it could not use LGM services. So it had to charge me some S$200,000 liability for subscription fees," he said.

Mr Wong became upset when the company threatened to sue him if he did not pay. He then contacted other timeshare victims. On Friday, 16 of them went to the Consumers Association of Singapore (CASE), but only six filed complaints against Maxmega.

Customer service officer Juraimi Selamat, who has invested around S$85,000, hopes CASE can help get his money back. If not, the 16 of them might consider "legal action", he said.

"I’m doing this to warn other people about terminating their timeshare. I hope the government can do more against these practices," Mr Wong said.

CASE will be sending a Voluntary Compliance Agreement to Maxmega and will investigate whether it has breached the Consumer Protection Fair Trading Act. If it has, an injunction will be filed against the company.

Since 2008, CASE has received a total of 27 complaints against timeshare companies totalling S$791,000 in value.

Saturday, 30 May 2009

Search Wars: Forget Bing, Google Has More to Worry About from Twitter

CARLSBAD, CALIF. -- Microsoft's Bing may be an improvement in search, but short of anticipating queries and "hitching up to my synapses" it's probably not enough to get people to change their habits, says Paul Kedrosky, senior research adviser at Ten Asset Management.

Microsoft and anyone else trying to unseat industry titan Google (including my employer) face a simple but daunting problem, Kedrosky says: "You're trying to replace a product people are reasonably happy with, with something where it's not clear what the quantum improvement is."

This challenge is made even tougher because it's hard to compete on price, considering search is free.

But while Kedrosky says Google doesn't have much to worry about from its big rivals, real-time search could upset the current paradigm.

"Live data pouring in on a real-time basis - a fire hose of data," is both compelling for users and a "very different thing architecturally" from how search is currently structured, he says in the accompanying video, taped Thursday at the AllThingsD conference. As a result, Google, Microsoft and Yahoo are going to have "redirect the [search] aircraft carrier to make it do things nimbler [and] faster," he says, even as smaller players can focus entirely on real-time search.

Real-time search is one of the great promises of Twitter, according to many, and a big reason why Kedrosky believes the firm isn't likely to be independent much beyond next year.

Financial Advice for Fresh College Grads

by Laura Rowley

My niece Kara just graduated from a Rhode Island university with a teaching degree; this was a bit of a shock to my system, since I first met her when she was just learning to walk. This week I wanted to offer Kara and other grads some advice on how to think about money and how to use it as a tool to achieve more happiness. Given what’s happened over the past year and a half, this isn’t an easy assignment.

Too many people are no longer reaping what they sow. They worked hard and got laid off. They saved diligently for college, and their 529 plans tanked (while tuition grew at double the rate of inflation). They contributed regularly to their retirement funds and lost 40 percent or more of their portfolios. They took out a mortgage they understood to buy a home they could afford, and it plummeted in value. They paid for health insurance but ended up bankrupt when they got sick. They followed the rules, and their dreams were derailed.

Some writers have suggested that recent experience means the death of personal-finance advice, because the conventional wisdom turned out to be so wrong under the circumstances. But this is a knee-jerk response that throws the baby out with the bathwater.

Perhaps the real problem is that the personal-finance advisers sold people on the illusion of total control. The underlying message of most personal-finance books is, "Do this and you’ll be rich like me! Guaranteed!" This ignores the fact that making big money -- and hanging onto it -- comes from a confluence of unique factors: upbringing, education, talent, a lucky break, perfectly timing a market bubble, and not bumping into Bernie Madoff at a cocktail party.

We Don't Have Control

The truth is we don’t have control. We can set goals based on what we value most, take concrete steps to achieve them, live within our means, do our best to manage risk, try to find good advisers, and sidestep the bad guys.

But that doesn’t protect us from the stupid things that government, institutions, and other people do that wreak havoc on the economy. In other words, you can eat right and exercise and still get run over by a drunk driver. That’s why we need to have common-sense regulation of financial services in the same way that we regulate drinking and driving. (How about a simple suitability requirement for the nation’s mortgage brokers so they can’t refinance an 84-year-old six times in three years? And a fiduciary duty for anyone who makes his living managing other people’s money?)

To my darling Kara and the other 2009 college graduates, here are the habits of financial peace that I have found in the past two decades, and they do work -- whether the Dow is at 14,000 or 6,000.

1. Work hard at the right things.

Continually develop your joyful skills, broaden your experience, raise your hand for new challenges, and take every free seminar your employer offers. Be as accomplished at making friends and contacts as you are at your job. Keep in mind that public companies often reward their executives in stock, and the stock prices usually go up when the cost of labor goes down (translation: you get laid off, your job moves overseas). Even if you work exceedingly hard, be aware that your competition is global and you are entirely dispensable. So invest your time developing your distinct abilities and a network that goes with you from job to job.

2. Define “rich” on your own terms.

Make a list of a dozen things you value most in life -- the qualities as well as the stuff -- whether this includes strong friendships, excellent health, independence, or a home on the beach. Set priorities and put a dollar figure on them, then work backwards -- if you want to buy a home in 10 years, what do you have to do in five years, two years, six months, or next week and even today to get there? Keep your list in your wallet, and pull it out every time you are tempted to trade what you want most in life for what you want this second.

Be creative and flexible in your definition of rich experiences. Whether you own a house on the beach or you housesit for free, you still get to feel the sand between your toes. If you barter your babysitting skills for personal training instead of paying cash, you still get abs of steel.

3. Banks should pay you interest, not the reverse.

Pay credit cards on time and in full every month. If you already carry a revolving balance, get rid of it as quickly as possible, even if it requires living at home (or with 12 roommates) for a period of time. Credit card firms pretend they exist to help you “live richly,” to borrow from an old ad campaign. But they are like drug dealers -- you’ll get a momentary high and then become wretched and dependent and kill yourself trying to kick the habit. Just say no. Do not arbitrage credit cards, rolling from one zero-interest card to another, because it can trash your credit score, and one tiny misstep can cost a fortune. Given recent legislation reining in the worst practices of credit companies, the days of ubiquitous zero-interest offers are probably over anyhow. Meanwhile, choose a credit union or local bank for your day-to-day finances, and if you do choose a megabank, don’t run afoul of their rules. Your finances will die the death of a thousand stupid fees.

4. Treat your credit score like a vintage race car.

Understand the mechanics of the thing, maintain it, buff it, shine it, and it will speed you in style to your destination. If you let it break down, it will damage your ability to get a job, rent an apartment, or borrow money to buy a car or a home -- and add tens of thousands of dollars in extra costs to everything in your life.

5. You do not need a million dollars for retirement.

The retirement industry will try to convince you that you do, because they make a lot of scratch managing your excess dough. Save 15 percent of your income from the time you start working in a tax-sheltered vehicle and you should be fine, although there are no guarantees. If you don’t have a 401(k) plan, lean toward a vehicle such as a Roth IRA, where you pay the taxes now, when you are in a lower income bracket, and take the money out tax-free later. The preposterous bailouts of this decade will come back to haunt Americans in future decades in preposterously high tax rates.

6. Learn to manage your own money.

Figure out what a stock is, what a bond is. Learn how the power of compounding works and how taxes affect your returns. Do not invest every penny in the stock market unless you have the stomach to lose every penny you put in. Find a percentage you are comfortable with, and if that’s 90 percent or 10 percent, know that there are risks on both sides. Historically, the broader stock market has never gone down to zero -- but individual stocks and funds have. So if you want to be in stocks, diversify your risk by buying very low-cost index funds or exchange-traded funds. Don’t know what an index fund is, or an ETF? There are dozens of free Web sites and classes where you can learn.

7. Understand the cost of your investments.

Know exactly how much you are being charged in fees for the privilege of investing in whatever it is you choose to invest in, and that includes your 401(k) retirement plan. You may be getting ripped off royally by your plan administrator, in which case you should only participate if you get a match, and then only up to the match.

8. Take good care of your health.

Exercise, eat your vegetables, and don’t smoke. No one knows what’s going to happen with the health care system in this country. But at the moment, illness is financially devastating. A 2005 Harvard study found that medical reasons caused half of U.S. bankruptcies -- and more than three-quarters of those households had health insurance at the onset of the illness.

9. Be giving, be grateful. Both are surefire strategies to well-being.

This advice might give you better control over your path to money and happiness. But there are no guarantees. Spend your money and time doing things with people instead of buying a bunch of stuff. Because, while you may find yourself caught in the crossfire of an embattled economy, no one can evict you from your experiences or repossess your memories.

Is Diversification A Strategy Of The Past?

Simon Maierhofer

In the early 80s, DOS was the most commonly used and recognized operating system (OS). In fact, DOS became the OS of choice and turned Microsoft into the leading software and computer technology provider. Newer Windows versions however, have proven more effective and reliable. At one point, MS DOS was the standard. Today, MS DOS is nearly obsolete.

Ever evolving products and standards are the result of a dynamic and efficient market place. The stock market dynamics of the last two years have certainly raised the bar and forced investors to rethink their strategies. Is diversification the financial equivalent of MS DOS?

For decades diversification has been the standard for many investors. The idea behind diversification is clear: exposure across multiple asset classes increases the odds of picking pockets of strength, just as placing multiple bets across the Roulette table gives you a higher chance of picking the winning number.

Pros and cons of diversification

A diversified portfolio for example, deflected the aftermath of the dot.com bust quite well. Even though the tech-laden Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) and Technology Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLK - News) lost some 40% in the year 2000, several industry sectors such as the Financial Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF) and Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (NYSEArca: VDC - News) gained 20% and more.

On the flipside of the coin, regarding diversification and asset allocation, one could argue that placing bets on all sorts of asset classes doesn't make much sense. If you don't even fully understand the U.S. stock market, why would you want to commit money to international stock, bond, or commodity markets? If you can't even drive an automatic, why would you push your luck with a stick shift?

Investment strategies work... until they stop working. And more often than not, they become popular at the wrong time. Let's take a look at some numbers.

The year 2007 entered the history books as the last year of the boom and the beginning of the bust, at least for equities. The S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY - News) and Dow Jones (NYSEArca: DIA - News) were still able to eke out single digit gains, while commodities had started their final push to all-time highs.

International developed markets and emerging markets kept their winning streak alive for a little longer compared to U.S. equities, but were in a confirmed downtrend by early 2008. Global markets - previously considered 'decoupled' from the U.S. markets - became conjoined again.

Rising commodity prices in early 2008, neutralized losses in domestic and international equities. This continued until prices for wheat, corn, soybeans, oil, copper, nickel, and many other commodities plunged up to 70% within months of reaching all-time highs in Q1 08. ETFs affected include the PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (NYSEArca: DBA - News), United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO - News), and PowerShares DB Commodity Index ETF (NYSEArca: DBC - News).

With falling commodity prices, diversification had lost its touch. The onset of the financial meltdown was the beginning of the end' for diversified portfolios.

Even before the financial meltdown, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter considered financials a 'downward spiral with no stop-loss provision' and recommended to unload all asset classes in favor of short ETFs. Those short ETFs recorded double and triple digit gains in 2008 alone.

The end of diversification?

From the 2007 highs to the March 2009 lows, the S&P 500 lost 55.19%. How did a diversified portfolio fare over the same period of time? A portfolio with equal exposure to the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEArca: VTI - News), iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSEArca: AGG - News), iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF (NYSEArca: IYR - News), iShares MSCI EAFE (NYSEArca: EFA - News), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEArca: EEM - News), and iShares S&P GSCI Commodity ETF (NYSEArca: GSG - News) would have lost 48.12%.

Admittedly, 48.12% is better than 55.19% but either way investors lost about half of their money. That is simply not acceptable.

Did the 2008 meltdown usher in a new area that will render diversification obsolete just as windows did with DOS, or is the recent rally an indication that diversification bears timeless wisdom?

The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter has become the default destination for profit minded investors. According to the newsletter, the bear market is not yet over. In fact, a deflationary environment will continue to put pressure on all asset classes.

Even the recent rally is no surprise to subscribers. The following was foretold in February: 'The best target for this low is 6,700 for the Dow and 700 for the S&P 500. Extreme pessimistic sentiment may drive the indexes even towards Dow 6,000 and S&P 600. A multi-month rally founded on this low should lift the markets by 30-40%.'

Despite the recent 30% bounce, the major indexes are still some 40% below their 2007 high watermark. At this point, it would still take an additional 75% rally and many years just to break even.

A pro-active, profit oriented approach on the other hand would put this mission on a fast track. By implication, a diversified approach always strings along weak sectors and asset classes that don't contribute to overall gains; in fact they often turn out as performance drag.

Rather than investing in a dozen asset classes (domestic and international small, mid, and large cap stocks, domestic and international bonds, commodities, real estate, etc.), many of which that are less than transparent, investors may want to consider investing in only one or two areas that offer the biggest and most likely profit potential.

While many lost 50% or more when the Dow Jones dropped from 14,000 to below 7,000, some actually used short and leveraged short ETFs to their advantage and recorded double and triple digit gains. Long-term indicators such as P/E ratios, dividend yields, the Dow measured in gold, and investor sentiment point towards new lows.

This will bring to an end (or at least put on hold) the era of diversification. Complacency will result in more losses. During the Great Depression, the Dow Jones lost more than 89% of its value. During those 34 months, there were five counter trend rallies with gains ranging from 25% to 50%. Only a pro-active, profit oriented approach protected investors from more losses.

The March and June issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter provided a detailed short, mid, and long-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, along with target levels for the ultimate market bottom. The Newsletters also included target levels for the end of this bear market rally, along with timely corresponding ETF profit strategies. Don't allow your portfolio to become extinct like MS DOS.

10 Part-Time Business Ideas

by Jeremy Quittner and John Tozzi

In any economy, a part-time business can bring in extra income, give you a fallback plan if you lose your job, or plant the seed for a larger venture. In a downturn, it's hard to argue with preparing a backup plan. Of course, starting a business is always risky, and you will almost surely spend more than you make at first. Previously, we offered advice for recently laid-off workers considering going into business for themselves. Now we're offering snapshots of part-time solo business ventures that could turn into full-fledged businesses, including tips on getting started.

Baker

Man does not live by bread alone, or so the saying goes. But if anyone checked the sales of some of the best independent bakeries around the country, they'd be astounded. In 1994, Jim Lahey started Sullivan Street Bakery after several years experimenting as a home baker. Today, his company, which has about $6 million in annual revenues and about 90 employees, is a New York City bread-baking institution. Lahey has a word of warning, though: "Knowledge of cooking is much greater than 20 years ago," he says. "The market is more competitive and if you want to develop a cottage industry, the product better exceed expectations."

And if you want to jump on one of the hottest trends nationally—cupcakes—you might even find yourself selling upwards of 2,000 a day, an amount that New York's famed Magnolia Bakery easily exceeds. At $2 a pop, you can do the math, even for your home-based business.

First steps: Break out your market. Are you going to make muffins and cupcakes or bagels and baguettes? As with most food businesses, you'll need a state license in order to sell to the public. If that seems daunting, you can start by selling to friends and relatives or at local bake sales.

You also need to decide how much space you'll need. If you outgrow your home kitchen, consider renting space in a professional kitchen.

Time needed: Baking is a time-consuming business, so expect to devote 10 to 20 hours a week on it for part-time work.

Average sales: $41,000, based on Labor Dept. data.

Blogger

It's true that few bloggers make enough to earn a living—most make nothing at all. But if you can write well about a topic you're passionate about, you may develop a following, and with enough page views you can start bringing in revenue from ads. Pick a narrow topic that you're intimately familiar with and that has a well-defined audience. For example, a site that covers the world of digital SLR cameras in minute detail has a more natural audience than a broad technology blog; likewise, a general restaurant review site may elicit yawns, while a blog chronicling the seafood shacks of New England could attract a cultish following.

First steps: Begin writing and start participating in online communities where people interested in your topic hang out. Start for free on a platform like Blogger or WordPress.

Time needed: Prepare to spend at least a few hours each day writing. Keep a regular schedule to make sure your blog doesn't get stale.

Average sales: $24,335, based on Economic Census data.

eBay Seller

Yard-sale mavens who already spend weekends trawling for hidden treasures can resell what they salvage online, on eBay or other sites. Pick a niche that interests you and that you have some expertise in and monitor what already sells online so you can set prices accurately. If you know your vinyl, buy old record collections in bulk and resell the gems individually online. From books to electronics, you may be able to find resalable items out on the street on trash night or given away for pennies at moving sales.

First steps: Set up a shop on eBay or other e-commerce sites and begin to build your seller rating. It's free to list items on many e-commerce sites, though eventually you may want to invest in your own Web site, advertising, or premium services.

Time needed: Expect to spend several hours a week finding inventory and listing it for sale.

Average sales: $22,196, based on Economic Census data.

Floral Designer

Turn your love of flowers and colors into bouquets and arrangements for occasions that vary from weddings and bar mitzvahs to confirmations and dinner parties. About one-third of the estimated 87,000 floral designers are self-employed, according to the Labor Dept.

First steps: Community colleges, vocational schools, and private floral schools all offer courses in flower design. You'll need to find a source for flowers, too. If you don't live near a flower wholesaler, a growing number now sell online. This is a supply-intensive business. You'll need a workshop space, refrigeration system, and some means of delivering your goods to clients.

Time needed: Three to 20 hours per week.

Average sales: $21,700, based on Labor Dept. data.

Jewelry Designer

It's probably easier than you think to turn your love of bling into cash on the side. About half of all jewelry makers in the U.S. are self-employed. You can sell online or to thousands of brick-and-mortar retailers.

First steps: You'll need design flair, manual dexterity, and attention to detail to get started. Technical and vocational schools offer classes on basics; community colleges also offer courses on design. A clean, well-lit workspace is necessary. Be sure to design pieces in a variety of price ranges. You'll probably spend $500 to $2,000 for materials, from beads and wire to gold and silver to cloth and wax, plus tools like a vise, pliers, and jigs.

Time needed: Evenings and weekends.

Average sales: $30,000, based on Labor Dept. data.

Pet Sitter

Love animals? Opportunities abound in the pet care industry. Consider walking dogs during the day, grooming or training pets on weekends, or boarding animals overnight. Even if you're not equipped to keep others' pets in your home, you can offer to wash and groom animals at clients' houses, or check in on their pets at their home while they're away. Owners often need someone to watch their pets on weekends and holidays, so pet care can be an easy business to start if you work during the week.

First steps: Start by caring for your friends' animals and get referrals through them, because trust is key for people placing their pets in other people's care.

Time needed: You can get started working on weekends and evenings.

Average sales: $22,183, based on Economic Census data.

Photographer

The barriers to starting a photography business virtually disappeared with the dawn of affordable digital SLR cameras and software like Photoshop. If you're skilled in taking great pictures, pick a niche and build a business around it. You might want to shoot weddings, bar mitzvahs, or corporate events. Or consider family or individual portraits. You could even set up a small studio space in your home. Consider what services you'll offer clients beyond just taking pictures—can you build a Web page to showcase the photos of their event as well?

First steps: Put together a portfolio of your existing work to show potential clients.

Time needed: For event photography, expect most gigs to be on weekends or evenings (galas, for example). You may be able to arrange portrait appointments on a more flexible schedule.

Average sales: $26,259, based on Economic Census data.

Translator or Interpreter

Those who speak more than one language have a ready skill to turn into a part-time business. You can get work translating documents or as an interpreter over the phone or in person. Focus on an area you have some deeper knowledge in. For example, if you have a legal background, angle your business around translating legal documents.

First steps: Get a certificate proving your proficiency from the American Translators Assn. and/or the American Council on the Teaching of Foreign Languages.

Time needed: Translation work can be done from home on your own schedule, but be prepared to meet client deadlines.

Average sales: $21,541, based on Economic Census data.

T-Shirt Vendor

Launching a T-shirt business is about as American as apple pie and your first paper route. Take the Life is Good guys, Bert and John Jacobs, who started out in 1989, selling their shirts door to door, at street fairs, and from the back of their van. Today, the company has about $100 million in annual revenues. T-shirt design is a hotly competitive market, however, and it should go without saying that the barriers to entry are low.

First steps: Create a catalog of design ideas, or simply one good one, like the Jacobs brothers, whose smiling stick figure captured the national mood. You need to decide if you will invest in the manufacturing materials or use a third-party designer, frequently known in the trade as a publisher: Lots of these exist, from CafePress to T-Shirt Monster. Using a publisher is cheaper, but you have less control and you'll be handing over most of your profits. On the other hand, investing in your own equipment, including a heat transfer press, can be expensive: $500 to $1,000. Again, this is an intensely crowded and competitive industry.

Time needed: Nights and weekends.

Average sales: $48,000, based on Economic Census data.

Web Designer

If you're adept at coding and have an eye for sharp design, you make be able to make a business making Web sites—especially if it's something you already do professionally. Begin by building sites for friends and contacts to accumulate a portfolio. Focus on a niche, like designing pages for bands or restaurants, where you can develop a name for yourself in the community and get referrals from your early clients. Decide whether you want to build a one-time site for clients or take on the responsibility of updating and maintaining it, and bill appropriately.

First steps: Set up your own Web site with a portfolio of your work.

Time needed: You can make your own hours as long as you meet client deadlines—which may mean pulling some all-nighters.

Average sales: $42,104, based on Economic Census data.

The New Resume: Dumb and Dumber

by Jane Porter

Kristin Konopka sent out nearly 100 copies of her résumé in January in search of receptionist work, but got only one callback. That's when Ms. Konopka, a 29-year-old New York actress and yoga teacher, took her master's degree and academic teaching experience off her résumé.

The calls started coming in. The slimmer version of her résumé landed in 30 in-boxes and earned her three callbacks and two interviews. "It definitely picked up the interest," says Ms. Konopka, who realized quickly that people don't "want to hire anyone who is overqualified."

Securing work in a tight economy means more job seekers might find themselves applying for positions below their qualifications. Many unemployed professionals are willing to take paycuts for the promise of a paycheck. But to get a foot in the door, candidates are gearing down their résumés by hiding advanced degrees, changing too-lofty titles, shortening work experience descriptions, and removing awards and accolades.

In the past eight months, Jamaica Eilbes, an information-technology recruiter for Milwaukee employment agency Manpower, has had to weed out more overqualified résumés than usual from the stacks that cross her desk each day. "I'd never feel comfortable putting a really high-level candidate into a lower level position," says Ms. Eilbes, who recruits for Manpower and other clients. "We don't want to take you on if we think you are going to jump ship."

But in recent months, Ms. Eilbes has seen more master's and doctoral degrees at the bottom of résumés instead of at the top. She's also seen candidates omitting or trimming job descriptions that showed they had substantial years of work experience. Résumés on which job descriptions taper off as they progress down the page raise Ms. Eilbes's suspicions. "How do I know I can trust them later down the road if there's something on their résumé they decided to take off so they could have a better chance at getting that job?" she says.

Still, for some professionals who find themselves constantly rejected despite decades of experience, scaling back the truth -- or at the least, some of their experiences -- can feel like the only chance at an interview.

Lenora Kaplan, 49, has 26 years of marketing experience but doesn't want her résumé to show it. When she lost her job as vice president of public relations at a small Las Vegas marketing firm in January, Ms. Kaplan searched for work with little success. At an interview for a shopping-mall marketing-director position in February, she was told that the hiring budget had only enough for a junior-level employee and that her résumé showed she was overqualified.

Many of the jobs she comes across ask for far fewer years of experience than she has. "There is nothing to apply for" at my level, Ms. Kaplan says. She quickly realized her job experience was pricing her out of too many positions. Her solution: To try not to look as senior level as she really was. So she eliminated certain jobs and removed details about speaking engagements and board positions.

In some cases, job seekers are being told by hiring agencies to tone down their résumés if they want to get hired. When Bridget Lee, 29, moved to New York from Shanghai eight months ago and put her application in at three temporary agencies, she was told to play down her work experience before they would send her résumé to potential clients. The temp-agency version of her résumé changed titles like "manager" and "freelance trend researcher" to "staff" and "office support" and omitted entirely her title as partner of a small marketing agency. "It's been a lesson for how I present myself," Ms. Lee says.

Career counselors advise against making too many drastic changes. But they also say the demand for this kind of restructuring is on the rise. In the past three months, Tammy Kabell, a Kansas City, Mo., job-search coach, says more clients are requesting her help to "dumb down" their résumés, whether by changing job titles, playing down experience, or altogether omitting some impressive achievements. One recent client, a 61-year-old former chief learning officer at a tech company, insisted on omitting her C-level job title from her résumé. She was fearful her application would be weeded out by the Web search-optimization tools companies use to manage résumés.

Some résumé writers advise reworking a résumé into a functional one stressing transferable skills instead of past job titles and accomplishments. "Instead of focusing on the big achievements that might scare an employer away, you can spell out what you can bring to an employer in the next position," Ms. Kabell says.

Of course, reducing your résumé to a skeleton of what it truly should be isn't likely to land you the job you really want. While it took Ms. Lee eight months to get a call back for a job that matched her real experience, this month she landed a position as a temporary account manager -- with potential for permanent work -- at a New York design firm. The interview and job offer weren't earned using her dumbed-down résumé, but rather with the original.

"You have to make those creative edits when it comes to short-term work, but in terms of long-term work, you have to stay true to your experience," says Ms. Lee.

Thursday, 28 May 2009

If You Think Worst Is Over, Take Benjamin Graham's Advice

by Jason Zweig

It is sometimes said that to be an intelligent investor, you must be unemotional. That isn't true; instead, you should be inversely emotional.

Even after recent turbulence, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up roughly 30% since its low in March. It is natural for you to feel happy or relieved about that. But Benjamin Graham believed, instead, that you should train yourself to feel worried about such events.

At this moment, consulting Mr. Graham's wisdom is especially fitting. Sixty years ago, on May 25, 1949, the founder of financial analysis published his book, "The Intelligent Investor," in whose honor this column is named. And today the market seems to be in just the kind of mood that would have worried Mr. Graham: a jittery optimism, an insecure and almost desperate need to believe that the worst is over.

You can't turn off your feelings, of course. But you can, and should, turn them inside out.

Stocks have suddenly become more expensive to accumulate. Since March, according to data from Robert Shiller of Yale, the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index has jumped from 13.1 to 15.5. That's the sharpest, fastest rise in almost a quarter-century. (As Graham suggested, Prof. Shiller uses a 10-year average P/E ratio, adjusted for inflation.)

Over the course of 10 weeks, stocks have moved from the edge of the bargain bin to the full-price rack. So, unless you are retired and living off your investments, you shouldn't be celebrating, you should be worrying.

Mr. Graham worked diligently to resist being swept up in the mood swings of "Mr. Market" -- his metaphor for the collective mind of investors, euphoric when stocks go up and miserable when they go down.

In an autobiographical sketch, Mr. Graham wrote that he "embraced stoicism as a gospel sent to him from heaven." Among the main components of his "internal equipment," he also said, were a "certain aloofness" and "unruffled serenity."

Mr. Graham's last wife described him as "humane, but not human." I asked his son, Benjamin Graham Jr., what that meant. "His mind was elsewhere, and he did have a little difficulty in relating to others," "Buz" Graham said of his father. "He was always internally multitasking. Maybe people who go into investing are especially well-suited for it if they have that distance or detachment."

Mr. Graham's immersion in literature, mathematics and philosophy, he once remarked, helped him view the markets "from the standpoint of eternity, rather than day-to-day."

Perhaps as a result, he almost invariably read the enthusiasm of others as a yellow caution light, and he took their misery as a sign of hope.

His knack for inverting emotions helped him see when markets had run to extremes. In late 1945, as the market was rising 36%, he warned investors to cut back on stocks; the next year, the market fell 8%. As stocks took off in 1958-59, Mr. Graham was again pessimistic; years of jagged returns followed. In late 1971, he counseled caution, just before the worst bear market in decades hit.

In the depths of that crash, near the end of 1974, Mr. Graham gave a speech in which he correctly forecast a period of "many years" in which "stock prices may languish."

Then he startled his listeners by pointing out this was good news, not bad: "The true investor would be pleased, rather than discouraged, at the prospect of investing his new savings on very satisfactory terms." Mr. Graham added a more startling note: Investors would be "enviably fortunate" to benefit from the "advantages" of a long bear market.

Today, it has become trendy to declare that "buy and hold is dead." Some critics regard dollar-cost averaging, or automatically investing a fixed amount every month, as foolish.

Asked if dollar-cost averaging could ensure long-term success, Mr. Graham wrote in 1962: "Such a policy will pay off ultimately, regardless of when it is begun, provided that it is adhered to conscientiously and courageously under all intervening conditions."

For that to be true, however, the dollar-cost averaging investor must "be a different sort of person from the rest of us ... not subject to the alternations of exhilaration and deep gloom that have accompanied the gyrations of the stock market for generations past."

"This," Mr. Graham concluded, "I greatly doubt."

He didn't mean that no one can resist being swept up in the gyrating emotions of the crowd. He meant that few people can. To be an intelligent investor, you must cultivate what Mr. Graham called "firmness of character" -- the ability to keep your own emotional counsel.

Above all, that means resisting the contagion of Mr. Market's enthusiasm when stocks are suddenly no longer cheap.

Write to Jason Zweig at intelligentinvestor@wsj.com
Copyrighted, Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, 27 May 2009

How Businesses Can Prosper, Even Now

Rick Newman

Many Americans are hunkering down, but even a grinding recession presents chances to get ahead--and maybe even earn your fortune. The very disruptions causing pain for many workers--spending cutbacks, layoffs, and corporate bankruptcies--often create openings for others. To figure out where to look, I asked William Sahlman of Harvard Business School, an expert on entrepreneurship. Some of his observations:

Creative destruction, like we're seeing now, generates opportunities, right? Do you see new opportunities forming? There's always been a yin and yang of opportunity. One person's crisis is another's opportunity. If you're a buyer of assets in distress, for example, you're able to pick up companies you may never see again at these prices. Right now there's $8 trillion or $9 trillion of cash sitting on the sidelines. People are waiting for signs so compelling that they're willing to go back in.

What are some of the best opportunities you see? Healthcare and education are growing, in terms of fields to work in. And in terms of getting education, the opportunity cost of that is going down, since jobs are harder to find. I know that applications to Harvard Business School are up, for example.

What other fields could be good growth areas? There are enormous opportunities related to energy. Insulation: Believe it or not, that's the highest return on investment related to carbon. Solar. Improving the electrical grid. Biofuels. The biggest problem with energy is that oil's at under 60 bucks a barrel. That destroys the incentive to innovate. I'd almost rather see a fixed price for oil higher than today.

Interesting. That's something a lot of auto executives would like to see as well. With prices that go up and down, we've wiped out predictability. If you're trying to make the case for investing in alternative fuels, you'd like to be able to put a floor under the price of biofuels.

But overall I'm extremely optimistic about the future of science. There's more reason than ever to think there will be technology advances. For one thing, we need them more. Things like poverty and the environment, these are things viewed best as opportunities for technology to solve problems.

I also think you're going to see a lot more kids going into social enterprises like Year Up or Teach for America, something they wouldn't otherwise have done.

Some people are able to remake themselves during times of transition, like we're in now. Can that happen in banking and finance? That seems to be one part of the economy that's under a lot of stress, and likely to change. We will need financial institutions that are effectively restarts. More community banks. The challenge is getting money. In the short run, we're not going to see the rebuilding of the financial system. People with capital are going to put it into distressed debt, not into new banks.

Yeah, you hear of the lot of big investors talking about the riches to be made in distressed debt these days. Is there any way for ordinary people to get in on that? Not really. Unfortunately, distressed debt is a complete insiders game.

If you're trying to find opportunity on an economic landscape that looks pretty barren, what are some things you need to think about? If you can lower the cost of doing things, this may be a great time for disruptive technologies. There are also opportunities to compete on price, as long as you have an acceptable level of quality.

The challenge with retail products is, we're over-retailed. But online firms like eBay should do well, because it cuts out the middleman. Amazon is another one.

People have to cut back, use less leverage, rely on lower incomes. That means renting Kate Spade bags instead of buying them. If you can be the one who rents those bags, it will make you very competitive.

Do you think the recession will get a lot worse? Or are we getting close to a bottom? We're closer to the bottom. I'm optimistic that we'll pull out of this, but not before the housing market stabilizes. The problem is uncertainty about where house prices will go, not where they end up. And all of it is related to trust and confidence in the idea that tomorrow will be a better day.

Monday, 25 May 2009

Crisis spurs prayers in Asia

WITH the Singapore government warning of a worsening economy, IT administrator Ismarini Ismail is praying the recession won't upset her wedding plans for December.
'I pray harder in times of economic downturn, although my job is not affected this time,' the 25-year-old Singaporean told Reuters as Singapore's unemployment rose to the highest in over three years in the first quarter of 2009. 'I'm praying for my fiance that his job is safe.'

Ismail is not alone. As companies shed jobs and governments inject funds to stimulate economies, recession-hit Asians from Taiwan to Thailand are flocking to temples, churches and mosques to seek solace in religion - and pray for a quick economic recovery.

Analysts say religion is a good refuge for people suffering from an economic downturn.

'People might experience depression and socio-psychological problems as they worry about jobs in a recession. It is through such worries that they turn to religion,' said Alexius Pereira, sociologist at the National University of Singapore.

While some may seek supranatural power for help, others look to relieve their stress through meditation, said Tay Sin Wee, a meditation course administrator.

'With the economy in such bad shape, people are finding an avenue to find peace and calm,' he said, adding he saw a 20 per cent rise in participants in classes at Singapore's Amitabha Buddhist Centre this year.

Others echo his views. 'The recession is a wake-up call to remind us to trust in God and not in money,' said Timothy Teo, a board member at Singapore's Bartley Christian church which has raised nearly S$16 million (US$11 million) to fund its new church facility in the midst of a recession. - REUTERS

Saturday, 23 May 2009

With Jobs Scarce, Age Becomes an Issue

by Dana Mattioli

Age discrimination in the workplace has long been a concern for the 55-and-older set. In this downturn, however, younger workers may have as much to fear as their more-mature colleagues.

Employees in their 20s and 30s are finding themselves more at risk of a layoff, according to labor lawyers, as employers look to avoid age-discrimination lawsuits by adopting a "last one in, first one out" policy and turn to tenure as a means of conducting layoffs. In some cases, young, childless professionals say they feel they're being targeted in layoffs, while employees who have families to support are given special consideration.

While no age group is exempt from layoffs, younger workers seem to be shouldering a larger percentage of the burden, according to recent Labor Department figures. The unemployment rate for those between the ages of 25 and 34 was 9.6% in April 2009, up from 4.9% a year earlier. For those ages 55 and older, the unemployment rate was 6.2% in April 2009, compared with 3.3% a year earlier.

Wary of Lawsuits

While younger workers tend to earn the lowest salaries, making them the least-expensive workers to retain, companies are becoming wary of laying off older, better-paid workers. In fact, Gerald Maatman, co-chairman of the class-action litigation practice at Seyfarth Shaw LLP, which represents employers, says he has been fielding more inquiries about laying off younger workers than in years past, especially from companies in states like New Jersey and Michigan that have laws to protect workers as young as 18. Age-discrimination lawsuits brought by older workers can cost more than the salary of the worker who was laid off and can hurt the company's reputation, according to Andria Ryan, partner at Atlanta law firm Fisher & Phillips LLP.

"Younger people, in general are a lot less of a risk [for lawsuits] when you do a reduction in force," says Ms. Ryan. While most states protect employees 40 and older from age discrimination, only a handful of jurisdictions extend this protection to employees as young as 18, she says.

"Companies don't like [layoffs by seniority], but [they're] also the easiest to defend," says Gerald Hathaway, co-chairman of the business-restructuring practice group with employment law firm Littler Mendelson. "If you have a bona fide seniority system it's a defense for any type of discrimination," according to the law, he adds.

Seniority in Education

This is particularly true in the education field, where many colleges and schools are taking measures to protect tenured teachers and professors. David Schauer, superintendent of Kyrene Elementary School District No. 28 in Tempe, Ariz., sent layoff notices to 68 teachers in anticipation of budget cuts. The cuts target only first-year continuing teachers, most of whom are in their 20s, says Mr. Schauer. "My worst fear is that really good people will leave teaching," he says.

Nicole Ryan, a 24-year-old sixth-grade math teacher for Fox Lane Middle School, in Bedford, N.Y., received such a layoff notice. The notice was sent out to teachers and staff based on their seniority. So, despite strong performance reviews, budget cuts mean she may not have a job to return to in the fall. "I knew it was coming because, based on seniority, I was lower on the totem pole," she says. "It didn't make it any easier."

The emotional impact of layoffs can affect a manager's decision when it comes to choosing who gets the ax -- and that can also disproportionately affect younger workers. "It takes a tremendous toll on managers," says Mitchell Marks, a professor of organizational change in the College of Business at San Francisco State University. Mr. Marks says when layoff decisions come to a tie breaker, personal and family situations often come into play.

"I've had plenty of managers sit me down and say 'Joe's spouse just got diagnosed with cancer but Jane's spouse is an M.D.,' " says Mr. Marks of the explanations of how a layoff has been decided. The same decision-making process can occur when choosing who gets laid off between a single 20-something employee or, say, a 50-year-old employee with two kids in college.

Svetlana Gelman, 24, worked in the marketing department of a law firm until December when she was laid off. She feels strongly that her age and the fact that she doesn't have a family to support put her at greater risk before the layoff. Ms. Gelman says she was competing head-to-head with another employee with a child, who was hired a few months after Ms. Gelman and often would use her sacrifices as a parent to tout her dedication to the firm. "The person was very tactical, she would bring the child in, spoke about him all the time and would say things like 'My child is sick but I'm still here,' " says Ms. Gelman.

And as work became more scarce and layoffs loomed, Ms. Gelman says she was let go while her colleague remained, despite the fact that Ms. Gelman earned less and often worked longer hours because of her co-worker's child-care responsibilities.

Staying Safe

Still, there are ways younger workers can go about safeguarding their jobs. High-maintenance attitudes typical of younger workers also make them more prone to the chopping block in a down economy, says Bruce Tulgan, author of "Not Everyone Gets a Trophy." Twentysomething professionals tend to demand flexibility, responsibility and high pay, he says -- all things that aren't going to be well-received in this environment.

"This is a really great time to come in early, stay late, dot your i's and cross your t's," says Mr. Tulgan. He says young employees should volunteer to do grunt work, take advantage of free certifications their companies offer and be compliant, rather than demanding.

Staying Valuable

Ms. Ryan, the attorney, says now is the time to make yourself as invaluable to a company as possible. She recommends cross-training in another department, learning as much as possible about different areas of the company and expressing a willingness to relocate to less desirable locations (something those with families often can't do).

You might also try to align yourself with someone in senior management. This could be in a mentor relationship or as a volunteer on a big project a manager is working on. Although executives are busier these days, they often view being asked to mentor as a compliment, says Mr. Marks. And if it should come to layoff decisions, "It doesn't hurt to have someone in the executive conference room on your side," he says.

Write to Dana Mattioli at dana.mattioli@wsj.com

Thursday, 21 May 2009

Outlook on UK economy downgraded to 'negative'

LONDON (AFP) - - International ratings agency Standard and Poor's on Thursday downgraded its outlook on Britain's economy to "negative" from "stable" owing to the country's "deteriorating public finances."

The change may eventually lead to S&P downgrading Britain's top-level sovereign credit ratings, the agency warned in a statement.

"The outlook revision is based on our view that, even factoring in further fiscal tightening, the UK's net general government debt burden may approach 100 percent of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and remain near that level in the medium term," S&P said in a statement.

Britain's public deficit ballooned to a record 8.5 billion pounds (9.6 billion euros, 13.22 billion dollars) in April as the Labour government was forced to bail out ailing banks and recession slashes tax revenues, according to official data published Thursday.

The data, together with S&P's downgrade, sent the British pound and stocks sliding in London, traders said.

S&P credit analyst David Beers said the agency had based its revision on its "updated projections of general government deficits in 2009-2013.

"These projections reflect our more cautious view of how quickly the erosion in the government's revenue base may be repaired, the extent to which the growth in government spending can be curtailed, and consequently the pace at which historically high fiscal deficits are likely to narrow," Beers said.

S&P on Thursday maintained its sovereign credit ratings for Britain at 'AAA' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term. Both ratings signify the highest confidence that Britain will repay its borrowings.

However, the agency warned that the ratings could be lowered following Britain's next general election that must be held by mid-2010.

"The rating could be lowered if we conclude that, following the election, the next government's fiscal consolidation plans are unlikely to put the UK debt burden on a secure downward trajectory over the medium term," Beers said.

"Conversely, the outlook could be revised back to stable if comprehensive measures are implemented to place the public finances on a sustainable footing."

A downgrade of a credit rating can have significant consequences for a country, pushing up the interest rates demanded by savers to buy new debt, increasingly being issued to help cover soaring budget deficits.

Britain's recession-battered economy is shrinking at its fastest pace in almost 30 years.

GDP contracted by 1.9 percent during the first three months of 2009 compared with a decline of 1.6 percent in the last quarter of 2008.

Google's Days are Numbered

Analysis: Sure Google's 73% share of U.S. searches is impressive, but business is a fragile ecosystem.

Kaila Colbin, Network World

Please trust me on this one: Google will die. If it hasn't happened by the time you read this post, you're just not patient enough.

Last week, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster was quoted by Wall Street Journal blogger Andrew LaVallee as saying that Google is "essentially insurmountable." And certainly Google's 73 percent share of U.S. searches is, shall we say, intimidating.

But business is a fragile ecosystem, and even redwoods meet their makers. Yes, Google's lead is massive. But Internet Explorer had an even bigger lead in the browser market. Yes, Google has more money than anybody else. But so did Circuit City in 1999, when it was the 800-pound gorilla of big-box electronics retailers. By 2001, it was an also-ran; seven months ago, Circuit City filed for bankruptcy. And brick-and-mortar time frames are glacial compared to the fruit-flyish life spans found online.

To understand why Google will die, let's take a trip back in time to look at Clayton Christensen's 1997 book, The Innovator's Dilemma . I'll review three of Christensen's five principles here:

Companies depend on customers and investors for resources. Simply put, this means that Google can't afford to alienate its existing customer base by adopting disruptive technologies until those technologies are well proven -- by somebody else, who will then be the de facto leader in that technology. All it can do is roll them out into Google Labs and hope.

Small markets don't solve the growth needs of large companies. Google's 6 percent YoY revenue growth in the first quarter was modest by its historical standards, but to maintain even that level for the second quarter, the Google team is going to have to come up with an additional $180 million in revenue. Again, this means they can't afford to make a disruptive innovation into a primary strategy -- which means, again, that by the time a disruptive innovation is big enough to matter, somebody else will own the new space.

Markets that don't exist can't be analyzed. Post-Its. Twitter. Personal computers. The telephone. History is littered with innovations whose inventors had no idea of their future ubiquity. More than perhaps any other company, Google is data-driven to its core -- but there's no data on markets that are yet to exist.

Taken in this light, things aren't looking to good for the cheeky Mountain View upstart. In Part II, I'll cover Christensen's remaining two principles, plus one massive risk Google faces all on its own. In the meantime, what are your thoughts? Does poor Google even stand a chance?

For more information about enterprise networking, go to NetworkWorld. Story copyright 2008 Network World Inc. All rights reserved.

Harvard’s masters of the apocalypse

Philip Delves Broughton

If Robespierre were to ascend from hell and seek out today’s guillotine fodder, he might start with a list of those with three incriminating initials beside their names: MBA. The Masters of Business Administration, that swollen class of jargon-spewing, value-destroying financiers and consultants have done more than any other group of people to create the economic misery we find ourselves in.

From Royal Bank of Scotland to Merrill Lynch, from HBOS to Leh-man Brothers, the Masters of Disaster have their fingerprints on every recent financial fiasco.

I write as the holder of an MBA from Harvard Business School – once regarded as a golden ticket to riches, but these days more like scarlet letters of shame. We MBAs are haunted by the thought that the tag really stands for Mediocre But Arrogant, Mighty Big Attitude, Me Before Anyone and Management By Accident. For today’s purposes, perhaps it should be Masters of the Business Apocalypse.

Harvard Business School alumni include Stan O’Neal and John Thain, the last two heads of Merrill Lynch, plus Andy Hornby, former chief executive of HBOS, who graduated top of his class. And then of course, there’s George W Bush, Hank Paul-son, the former US Treasury secretary, and Christopher Cox, the former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a remarkable trinity who more than fulfilled the mission of their alma mater: “To educate leaders who make a difference in the world.”

It just wasn’t the difference the school had hoped for.

Business schools have shown a remarkable ability to miss the economic catastrophes unfolding before their eyes.

In the late 1990s, their faculties rushed to write paeans to Enron, the firm of the future, the new economic paradigm. The admiration was mutual: Enron was stuffed with Harvard Business School alumni, from Jeff Skilling, the chief executive, down. When Enron, rotten to the core, collapsed, the old case studies were thrust in a closet and removed from the syllabus, and new ones were promptly written about the ethical and accounting issues posed by Enron’s misadventures.

Much the same appears to have happened with Royal Bank of Scotland.

When I was a student at Harvard Business School, between 2004 and 2006, I recall a distinguished professor of organisational behaviour, Joel Podolny, telling us proudly of his work with Fred Goodwin at RBS. At the time, RBS looked like a corporate supermodel and Podolny was keen to trumpet his role in its transformation. A Harvard Business School case study of the firm entitled The Royal Bank of Scotland: Masters of Integration, written in 2003, began with a quote from the man we now know as Fred the Shred or the World’s Worst Banker: “Hard work, focus, discipline and concentrating on what our customers need. It’s quite a simple formula really, but we’ve just been very, very consistent with it.”

The authors of the case, two Harvard Business School professors, described the “new architecture” formed by RBS after its acquisition of NatWest, the clusters of customer-facing units, the successful “buy-in” by employees. Goodwin came across as a management master, saying: “A leader’s job is to create the conditions that enable people to believe, in their hearts and minds, in the value of what they are doing.”

Then just last December, Harvard Business School revised and republished another homage to RBS – The Royal Bank of Scotland Group: The Human Capital Strategy.

It is tragic to read now of all the effort put in by those under Goodwin, from “pulse surveys” to track employee performance to “the big thank you”, a website where managers could recognise individual excellence in customer service.

Every trendy business school idea was being implemented, it seemed, while what really mattered – the bank’s risk assessment, cash flow and capital structure – was going to hell. To be fair, neither Podolny nor the authors of the case studies were finance professors, but it’s still pretty shocking that a school that purports to teach general management should fail to see the gaping problems at a firm they studied in such depth.

Is there a pattern here? Go back to the 1980s, and you find that Harvard MBAs played a big enough role in the insider trading scandals that washed through Wall Street for a former chairman of the SEC to consider it a good move to donate millions of dollars for the teaching of ethics at the school.

Time after time, and scandal after scandal, it seems that a school that graduates just 900 students a year finds itself in the thick of it. Yet there is remarkably little contrition.

Last October, Harvard Business School celebrated its 100th birthday with a global summit in Boston. While Wall Street and Washington descended into an economic inferno, Jay Light, the dean of the school and a board member at the Black-stone private equity group, opened the festivities by shrugging off any responsibility.

“We all failed to understand how much [the financial system] had changed in the past 15 years or so, and how fragile it might be because of increased leverage, decreased transparency and decreased liquidity: three of the crucial things in the world of financial markets,” he said.

“We all failed to understand how that fragility could evidence itself in a frozen short-term credit system, something that hadn’t really happened since 1907. We also probably overestimated the ability of the political process to deal with the realities of what could happen if real trouble developed.

“What we have witnessed is a stunning and sobering failure of financial safeguards, of financial markets, of financial institutions and mostly of leadership at many levels. We will leave the talk of fixing the blame to others. That is not very interesting. But we must be involved in fact in fixing the problem.”

You would think after failing on so many levels, the school that provides more business leaders than any other might feel some remorse. Not in the least. It’s onwards and upwards, with the very people who blew apart the world’s financial plumbing now demanding to fix the leak.

You can draw up a list of the greatest entrepreneurs of recent history, from Larry Page and Sergey Brin of Google and Bill Gates of Microsoft, to Michael Dell, Richard Branson, Lak-shmi Mittal – and there’s not an MBA between them.

Yet the MBA industry continues to grow, and business schools provide vital income to academic institutions: 500,000 people around the world now graduate each year with an MBA, 150,000 of those in the United States, creating their own management class within global business.

Given the present chaos, should-n’t we be asking if business education is not just a waste of time, but actually damaging to our economic health?

If doctors or lawyers wreaked such havoc in their own professions, we would certainly reconsider what is being taught at medical and law schools.

During my time at the school, 50 students were chosen to participate in a detailed survey of their development. Scott Snook, the professor who ran it, reported that about a third of students were inclined to define right and wrong simply in terms of what everyone else was doing.

“They can’t really step back and take a critical view,” he said. “They’re totally defined by others and by the outcomes of what they’re doing.”

A group of people unable to see their actions in the broader context of the society they inhabit have no business being self-regulating. Yet in the financial services industry this is pretty much what they demanded and to a large extent got – with catastrophic consequences.

The happiest in my cohort, which graduated into the rosy economic conditions of 2006, are now certainly those who went off to do the unfashionable jobs: a friend who spurned Wall Street to join a Mid-western industrial firm, and now finds himself running the agricultural division of an Indian conglomerate; one who joined a foundation promoting entrepreneurship; one who went into Boston city government, another who moved to Russia to run a cinema chain.

However, these were the rarities: 42% of my class went into financial services and another 21% into consulting, both wretched sectors to be in today and for the foreseeable future.

Applications to business schools in America and Europe are broadly up, as people search for a safe haven from the recession. What are they thinking? Many MBA jobs will not be coming back. Students who stump up more than £60,000 for a two-year MBA can expect a long wait to make that back.

For those about to graduate from business school, these are grim times. Financial and consulting firms, which used to soak up two-thirds of the MBAs from top schools, have all but vanished from campuses. Suddenly jobs in government and at nonprofit organisations are in hot demand from students who used to consider them laughably underpaid.

A dose of modesty among MBAs and business schools is long overdue. But it’s not going to come from Harvard. Light, told his audience in October: “The need for leadership in the world today is at least as great as it has ever been. The need for what we do is at least as great as it has ever been.”

A bold claim to which many might say: please, spare us.

Philip Delves Broughton is the author of What They Teach You at Harvard Business School, published by Viking at £12.99. Copies can be ordered for £11.69, including postage, from The Sunday Times BooksFirst on 0845 271 2135

Harvard’s masters of the apocalypse

If his fellow Harvard MBAs are all so clever, how come so many are now in disgrace?

Philip Delves Broughton

If Robespierre were to ascend from hell and seek out today’s guillotine fodder, he might start with a list of those with three incriminating initials beside their names: MBA. The Masters of Business Administration, that swollen class of jargon-spewing, value-destroying financiers and consultants have done more than any other group of people to create the economic misery we find ourselves in.

From Royal Bank of Scotland to Merrill Lynch, from HBOS to Leh-man Brothers, the Masters of Disaster have their fingerprints on every recent financial fiasco.

I write as the holder of an MBA from Harvard Business School – once regarded as a golden ticket to riches, but these days more like scarlet letters of shame. We MBAs are haunted by the thought that the tag really stands for Mediocre But Arrogant, Mighty Big Attitude, Me Before Anyone and Management By Accident. For today’s purposes, perhaps it should be Masters of the Business Apocalypse.

Harvard Business School alumni include Stan O’Neal and John Thain, the last two heads of Merrill Lynch, plus Andy Hornby, former chief executive of HBOS, who graduated top of his class. And then of course, there’s George W Bush, Hank Paul-son, the former US Treasury secretary, and Christopher Cox, the former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a remarkable trinity who more than fulfilled the mission of their alma mater: “To educate leaders who make a difference in the world.”

It just wasn’t the difference the school had hoped for.

Business schools have shown a remarkable ability to miss the economic catastrophes unfolding before their eyes.

In the late 1990s, their faculties rushed to write paeans to Enron, the firm of the future, the new economic paradigm. The admiration was mutual: Enron was stuffed with Harvard Business School alumni, from Jeff Skilling, the chief executive, down. When Enron, rotten to the core, collapsed, the old case studies were thrust in a closet and removed from the syllabus, and new ones were promptly written about the ethical and accounting issues posed by Enron’s misadventures.

Much the same appears to have happened with Royal Bank of Scotland.

When I was a student at Harvard Business School, between 2004 and 2006, I recall a distinguished professor of organisational behaviour, Joel Podolny, telling us proudly of his work with Fred Goodwin at RBS. At the time, RBS looked like a corporate supermodel and Podolny was keen to trumpet his role in its transformation. A Harvard Business School case study of the firm entitled The Royal Bank of Scotland: Masters of Integration, written in 2003, began with a quote from the man we now know as Fred the Shred or the World’s Worst Banker: “Hard work, focus, discipline and concentrating on what our customers need. It’s quite a simple formula really, but we’ve just been very, very consistent with it.”

The authors of the case, two Harvard Business School professors, described the “new architecture” formed by RBS after its acquisition of NatWest, the clusters of customer-facing units, the successful “buy-in” by employees. Goodwin came across as a management master, saying: “A leader’s job is to create the conditions that enable people to believe, in their hearts and minds, in the value of what they are doing.”

Then just last December, Harvard Business School revised and republished another homage to RBS – The Royal Bank of Scotland Group: The Human Capital Strategy.

It is tragic to read now of all the effort put in by those under Goodwin, from “pulse surveys” to track employee performance to “the big thank you”, a website where managers could recognise individual excellence in customer service.

Every trendy business school idea was being implemented, it seemed, while what really mattered – the bank’s risk assessment, cash flow and capital structure – was going to hell. To be fair, neither Podolny nor the authors of the case studies were finance professors, but it’s still pretty shocking that a school that purports to teach general management should fail to see the gaping problems at a firm they studied in such depth.

Is there a pattern here? Go back to the 1980s, and you find that Harvard MBAs played a big enough role in the insider trading scandals that washed through Wall Street for a former chairman of the SEC to consider it a good move to donate millions of dollars for the teaching of ethics at the school.

Time after time, and scandal after scandal, it seems that a school that graduates just 900 students a year finds itself in the thick of it. Yet there is remarkably little contrition.

Last October, Harvard Business School celebrated its 100th birthday with a global summit in Boston. While Wall Street and Washington descended into an economic inferno, Jay Light, the dean of the school and a board member at the Black-stone private equity group, opened the festivities by shrugging off any responsibility.

“We all failed to understand how much [the financial system] had changed in the past 15 years or so, and how fragile it might be because of increased leverage, decreased transparency and decreased liquidity: three of the crucial things in the world of financial markets,” he said.

“We all failed to understand how that fragility could evidence itself in a frozen short-term credit system, something that hadn’t really happened since 1907. We also probably overestimated the ability of the political process to deal with the realities of what could happen if real trouble developed.

“What we have witnessed is a stunning and sobering failure of financial safeguards, of financial markets, of financial institutions and mostly of leadership at many levels. We will leave the talk of fixing the blame to others. That is not very interesting. But we must be involved in fact in fixing the problem.”

You would think after failing on so many levels, the school that provides more business leaders than any other might feel some remorse. Not in the least. It’s onwards and upwards, with the very people who blew apart the world’s financial plumbing now demanding to fix the leak.

You can draw up a list of the greatest entrepreneurs of recent history, from Larry Page and Sergey Brin of Google and Bill Gates of Microsoft, to Michael Dell, Richard Branson, Lak-shmi Mittal – and there’s not an MBA between them.

Yet the MBA industry continues to grow, and business schools provide vital income to academic institutions: 500,000 people around the world now graduate each year with an MBA, 150,000 of those in the United States, creating their own management class within global business.

Given the present chaos, should-n’t we be asking if business education is not just a waste of time, but actually damaging to our economic health?

If doctors or lawyers wreaked such havoc in their own professions, we would certainly reconsider what is being taught at medical and law schools.

During my time at the school, 50 students were chosen to participate in a detailed survey of their development. Scott Snook, the professor who ran it, reported that about a third of students were inclined to define right and wrong simply in terms of what everyone else was doing.

“They can’t really step back and take a critical view,” he said. “They’re totally defined by others and by the outcomes of what they’re doing.”

A group of people unable to see their actions in the broader context of the society they inhabit have no business being self-regulating. Yet in the financial services industry this is pretty much what they demanded and to a large extent got – with catastrophic consequences.

The happiest in my cohort, which graduated into the rosy economic conditions of 2006, are now certainly those who went off to do the unfashionable jobs: a friend who spurned Wall Street to join a Mid-western industrial firm, and now finds himself running the agricultural division of an Indian conglomerate; one who joined a foundation promoting entrepreneurship; one who went into Boston city government, another who moved to Russia to run a cinema chain.

However, these were the rarities: 42% of my class went into financial services and another 21% into consulting, both wretched sectors to be in today and for the foreseeable future.

Applications to business schools in America and Europe are broadly up, as people search for a safe haven from the recession. What are they thinking? Many MBA jobs will not be coming back. Students who stump up more than £60,000 for a two-year MBA can expect a long wait to make that back.

For those about to graduate from business school, these are grim times. Financial and consulting firms, which used to soak up two-thirds of the MBAs from top schools, have all but vanished from campuses. Suddenly jobs in government and at nonprofit organisations are in hot demand from students who used to consider them laughably underpaid.

A dose of modesty among MBAs and business schools is long overdue. But it’s not going to come from Harvard. Light, told his audience in October: “The need for leadership in the world today is at least as great as it has ever been. The need for what we do is at least as great as it has ever been.”

A bold claim to which many might say: please, spare us.

Philip Delves Broughton is the author of What They Teach You at Harvard Business School, published by Viking at £12.99. Copies can be ordered for £11.69, including postage, from The Sunday Times BooksFirst on 0845 271 2135

Banking crisis is ending

WASHINGTON - RENEWED signs of health among big US banks is sparking hope that the credit crisis is over, with the risks diminishing for a new financial meltdown.

Despite a still-fragile situation, some analysts point to easing interest rates, rising stock prices for major banks and the renewed ability of banking firms to raise new capital in the private sector.

This could lead to many banks repaying the US government by repurchasing the shares from capital injections.

'America's banking crisis is over,' said Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC World Markets, in a recent note to clients.

Mr Shenfeld said one major factor is the drop in the key Libor interest rate for lending between banks 'to the point that indicates that the fear of failure has been shaken out of the system.'

The conclusion of the 'stress tests' of the system along with requirements that major banks raise modest amounts of new capital - which they have been doing - indicates the United States will not allow a failure that could lead to a major shock to the system, said Mr Shenfeld.

'The US will not be left with an empty shell of a banking system, the way Japan was in the 1990s after its equity and real estate crash,' he said.

Numerous banks have been able to raise fresh capital, including Bank of America, which issued some shares to reap roughly US$13.47 billion (S$19.6 billion).

Citigroup, meanwhile, raised US$2 billion in bonds without a guarantee that had been offered by US authorities.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday that he sees 'important indications that our financial system is starting to heal.' -- AFP

Wednesday, 20 May 2009

Commentary by Brad Gareiss: Trading Psychology- Dealing with a Drawdown

Trading psychology is the most important aspect of a trader's success. This may surprise some readers, specifically those that are new to trading. However, the psychological makeup of a trader is more important than market knowledge, market analysis, and even money management. The reason psychology is so important is that even the best information can be distorted by a poor mindset.

Most new traders think the key to profiting in trading is knowing more about the market. For instance, most new traders clog their screens with every indicator they can find, read up European GDP trends, and feel that pro traders have some sort of secret knowledge. However, this inevitably does not provide the lofty results the novice trader hopes to achieve.

After realizing that excessive market information doesn't help (and may hurt) results, the next moment of truth most traders have is money management. Instead to trading 1 lot every time, or even trading the maximum lots their account will allow, these traders realize losses will happen no matter what. When you realize that everyone loses on occassion, it is easy to see why money management is necessary. This is a big step, but does not ensure success.

Now, don't get me wrong, you need to have a form of analysis and a form of money management to profit in the long term. In other words, you need an edge that when applied with proper money management leads to positive returns over the course of many trades. Great money management with no edge will only mean you lose your money more slowly. A great strategy without money management will lead to an inevitable blow up. However, without the proper mindset, it is nearly impossible to continue to get good results in the long run.

The bottom line is that a poor mindset can sabotage even the best trading strategy or money management strategy. I could write about this at great length, but we will look at one key example for now. The biggest test in trading psychology occurs during a drawdown. This occurs when a trader gets in a "slump" and has bad results for a given period of time. Usually the most devastating drawdowns eliminate a significant amount of a hard earned profit.

Keep in mind, drawdowns are completely normal. Everyone has them on occasion. However, the key is reacting properly to drawdowns. This is why trading psychology is so important. The natural reaction during a drawdown is to change your strategy. Sometimes traders will even take trades for no reason at all except for a desperate chance at a profit. Assuming you believe your methodology is sound, there is no reason to change anything during a drawdown. In fact, that is the most important time to follow the basics. Think about a baseball hitter in a slump. Sometimes they will change their stance, but usually they keep the same basic stance and swing. Instead, they focus on the fundatmentals of keeping their head still, keeping their hands back, and so on. For some reason traders tend to panic in this situation and change everything up. This leads to a larger drawdown, which usually ends when the trader reverts back to their primary strategy.

Housing bottom in sight, but recovery will be slow

Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Single-family home construction posted a modest rebound in April, raising hopes that the three-year slide in U.S. housing is leveling off. But a bulging supply of unsold homes, record levels of foreclosures and still-falling home prices suggest a sustained recovery isn't likely until next spring at the earliest.

The Commerce Department said construction of homes and apartments fell 12.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000 units. That's the lowest pace on records going back a half-century.

Applications for new building permits dropped 3.3 percent to an annual rate of 494,000, also a record low.

"I think we have probably reached the low point for this housing crash, but I don't expect us to come roaring back," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "I think it will take another year for a recovery in housing to get going."

All of last month's weakness came in the volatile multifamily part of construction. By contrast, single-family construction and permits both rose, which economists took as a hopeful sign that this bigger sector of home construction was stabilizing.

That would be crucial for the broader economy. The recession -- the longest since the Great Depression -- was triggered by a collapse in the housing market that led to soaring loan losses and a grave crisis for the banking system. A healthy home market is needed to feed an economic recovery.

Many economists say home construction likely will stop falling in the current quarter. But any rebound isn't expected to take hold until next spring, and even then is likely to be slow. The reasons are the huge overhang of unsold homes, a wave of mortgage foreclosures and persistent job losses.

With foreclosures and other distressed properties for sale at deep discounts, builders often can't compete. Rather than launching new developments, they are waiting for signs of a broader recovery.

"They're being really cautious," said Michelle Meyer, an economist with Barclays Capital. "It will likely be a pretty gradual recovery in construction."

Zandi said he thinks home prices will keep falling until next spring and that sales won't start to show significant gains until the summer of 2010. And Wachovia economist Adam York said prices are likely to fall 10 percent more by mid-2010. Until then, the oversupply of homes is likely to remain a drag on the housing market.

The median price of a new home sold in March was $201,400 -- down 23 percent from a peak of $262,600 two years earlier. The median price is the midpoint, which means half the homes sold for more and half for less.

The supply of unsold existing homes at the end of March fell 1.6 percent from a month earlier to 3.7 million, according to the National Association of Realtors, but still remained at elevated levels. With sales sluggish, it would take nearly 10 months to rid the market of those properties, compared with about 6.5 months in 2006, according to the Realtors data.

The government report Tuesday showed construction of single-family homes rose 2.8 percent in April to an annual rate of 368,000. That followed a 0.3 percent gain in March and no change in February.

Building permits for single-family homes rose 3.6 percent to a rate of 373,000 last month.

Multifamily construction plunged 46.1 percent to an annual rate of 90,000 units after a 23 percent fall in March. Permits for multifamily construction dropped 19.9 percent to 121,000 units.

Analysts said apartment construction is being hurt by a glut of condominiums on the market and by tightening credit conditions for commercial real estate.

While housing construction and home sales appear to be at or near a bottom, two big unknowns are the sagging job market and the effectiveness of President Barack Obama's plan to help up to 9 million borrowers obtain more affordable mortgages.

In April, housing construction fell 30.6 percent in the Northeast, the largest drop for any region. Housing starts dropped 21.4 percent in the Midwest and 21.1 percent in the South. The West was the only region showing strength, with a 42.5 percent jump in housing starts.

The National Association of Homebuilders said this week that its survey of builder confidence rose for the second straight month in May, reflecting growing optimism.

The Washington-based trade group's index rose two points to 16, the highest reading since September. Even with the rebound, the index remains near historic lows. Readings lower than 50 indicate negative sentiment about the market.

The housing slump has hurt related industries such as home remodeling. But two national chains reported better-than-expected earnings this week.

Home Depot Inc. said its first-quarter profit climbed 44 percent on fewer charges, and the largest U.S. home improvement retailer beat Wall Street's expectations despite lower sales. And its smaller rival Lowe's Cos. reported a quarterly profit that also beat analysts' expectations, and the company boosted its full-year outlook.

But the top three U.S. homebuilders reported results earlier this month that give little hope the spring selling season will be strong enough to stop the red ink.

Pulte Homes Inc. and Centex Corp., which agreed to combine this year to become the largest U.S. homebuilder, said that while their quarterly losses narrowed, they are still battered by falling prices and a glut of unsold homes.

D.R. Horton Inc., the industry's No. 1 home builder, also reported that its losses had shrunk. But the company said it still faces challenges from foreclosures, high inventory levels, tight homebuyer credit, low consumer confidence and job losses.

"The good news is that the bottom for house construction is in sight ... in this very long and painful construction cycle," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh.

AP Real Estate Writer Alan Zibel contributed to this report.

How to Earn Money as a Professional Blogger

Kimberly Palmer

It's an appealing fantasy: Start a blog. Watch it take off. Then, quit the office life, sit at home, and live off the advertising revenue.

But successful, moneymaking blogs elude most people who try to start them. The vast majority of blogs, written primarily for family and friends, attract fewer than 50 page views a day and earn pennies per month, if anything. According to a Problogger survey, most bloggers earn less than $100 per month, and 3 in 10 earn less than$10 per month. Only 16 percent of the 4,000 respondents say they make more than $2,500 a month.

Gia Lipa, 43, is one of those success stories. In 2006, she started her personal finance blog, the Digerati Life, to teach herself more about the Internet. She started networking with other personal finance blogs and soon had a growing number of online friends who linked to one another's blogs. Within six months, her blog pulled in between 800 and 1,000 visitors a day, and the audience has since grown sevenfold. In early 2008, Lipa left her full-time job as a technical engineer to put 50 hours a week into her blog. She now earns about $10,000 a month through ads, links, and guest blogging. "I'm amazed how it turned out," says Lipa. "I didn't know I could replace my [engineer] salary after a year."

Like Lipa, the most successful bloggers tend to pick a topic that they love but that also fills a niche in the blogosphere. And while building traffic is a prerequisite, learning how to monetize the content is just as essential to turning a hobby into a moneymaking operation. Here are tips from experts on how to turn your blogging habit into a lucrative job:

--Monetize in multiple ways. Paul McFedries, author of The Complete Idiot's Guide to Creating a Website, says there are three basic ways to make money. First, bloggers can run advertisements through a program like Google AdSense, which matches up ads with blog content and pays based on how often visitors see and click on the ads. A blog about dogs, for example, might feature ads for shelters and dog food. The second way is through affiliate programs such as Amazon.com, which shares book-sale profits with websites that refer customers. And third, bloggers can turn a profit by selling related products that they design, such as T-shirts or crafts.

--Begin with ads. Lynnae McCoy, a 37-year-old mother of two and the creator of the Being Frugal blog, recommends placing ads on the site from the start so readers get used to the look and don't complain when they're added later. McCoy, who earns about $1,000 a month from her blog, says advertisers started contacting her as soon as her blog began to appear as one of the top links in popular Web searches, such as "being frugal." "The first six months are the hardest because you have to work hard to get your blog noticed," says McCoy.

--Look for partnerships. When Jim Wang, 28, the Columbia, Md.-based author of the Bargaineering blog, writes about saving money on vacation, he tries to mention the site Travelzoo, which pays him $2 for every person who signs up for its newsletter after clicking on Wang's link. He didn't earn much money during the first two years of his blog. But now it gets around 850,000 page views a month, and he turns those eyeballs into $10,000 a month.

--Make extra cash offline, too. Some bloggers also use their site as a way to advertise their skills and services for additional income. After Lipa took advantage of Google AdSense and affiliate programs, which each make up about one third of her revenue, she offered her blogging services, including outreach work, to other sites and corporations. She now charges an hourly rate that makes up the rest of her revenue.

--Be patient. "It takes years to get to the point where you can earn a living off the site," says Wang, who didn't get more than 100 visitors a day for the first six months of his blog's life. From a monetary perspective, he says, it would have made more sense to stick with his day job as a software developer. That's why he warns anyone against pursuing a blog just for the moneymaking potential. "Your time is better invested elsewhere if you're doing it for the money, but if you have a passion or some other motivation, do it," says Wang.

He follows his own advice: In addition to Bargaineering, Wang writes low-earning blogs on grilling and Scotch.

Many Bought Shares High, Sold Low

by Mary Pilon

As stock markets slid in March, Judy Brady lay awake at night thinking about her portfolio.

"My retired friends who had all CDs and gold, and they were still making money, and my investments just kept going and going," she said. "I thought: I can't afford to lose all this."

So the 70-year-old retiree in Schaumburg, Ill., sold most of her stocks. Instead of the 40% of her portfolio that was in stocks, now she has just 10%. The rest is in cash, bonds and federally insured certificates of deposit.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a bottom at 6547.05 on March 9, a 12-year low and less than half its October 2007 level. Many investors like Ms. Brady cut their losses. Some $70 billion flowed out of stock mutual funds or exchange-traded funds in February and March, according to TrimTabs Research.

Since bottoming out, the Dow has surged 26%. That means investors who sold at the bottom have missed out on one of the most powerful rallies in decades. "Their timing was almost perfectly bad," said Dennis Houlihan, a Fort Wayne, Ind., financial adviser who tried unsuccessfully to steer three of his clients away from selling in early March.

Mr. Houlihan said he hasn't heard from any clients who dumped stocks. "There's a tail between the legs. You don't want to rub their nose in it," he said.

Some investors said they had no choice but to bail out when stocks were sinking. Josh Caucutt of Lakewood, Colo., cashed out his individual retirement account in early March to help pay the $1,200-a-month maintenance costs on his unsold home in Wisconsin. The IRA, valued at $3,000 a year ago, was divided evenly between a stock-index fund and funds that blended stocks, bonds and other investments. When he cashed it out, it was valued at $1,800, a 40% slide.

"I knew exactly what I was doing," said the 34-year-old father of three. "By no means am I convinced I did the right thing. But we needed this money immediately. And there wasn't much to indicate that things were going to change."

Jesse Archambeault of West Hartford, Conn., worried he would lose his children's college money if he didn't get out of the market. Mr. Archambeault got $100,000 from selling his previous Connecticut house in 2007.

But when the $100,000 turned into $60,000 late last year, Mr. Archambeault and his wife went in to see their financial adviser, Rick Shapiro. Mr. Shapiro told them about his "two-Ambien" test, referring to the sleeping pill.

"If two Ambien can allow you to sleep," Mr. Shapiro said, "then it still might make sense to stay invested."

The Archambeaults passed Mr. Shapiro's test. They sold anyway, reducing their stock holdings to 20% from 85%. They sold in November, which hasn't hurt them since the market is now roughly flat for 2009.

Still, Mr. Archambeault said it is tough to watch the rally pass him by. He is thinking of putting half the money back into the stock market in coming months.

Financial advisers said they usually discourage clients from tugging money out of the stock market during downturns. They know that buying high and selling low is a formula for awful returns. But panicked clients often want safety now.

Lucas Hail, an adviser in Cincinnati, said two of his clients sold close to the market bottom. They waited until the market recovered a bit and recently bought back in.

"They know that in hindsight, it wasn't the best thing to do," Mr. Hail said. "But it was what they had to do emotionally. Math and the mind don't always add up."

Not everybody who sold earlier this year considers it a mistake. Holly Hunter, a financial adviser in Portsmouth, N.H., advised many of her clients to sell, first in the summer of 2007, then again in February of this year.

"My folks need income," she said. "They need to know they can pay their bills....There is no waiting time for things to come back around."

Ms. Hunter estimates that two-thirds of her 80 clients are retirees. She met with clients individually to determine how much of their portfolios should be scaled back. A few years ago, it wasn't unusual for those portfolios to be 60% in stocks, she said. Now, many older clients have scaled back to 20% or less.

Only two have since questioned whether selling was the right move. "The downside would have been horrific," she said. "What if we were at 3000 now? Selling at 6500 would have been brilliant. And you don't know that at the time of the decision."

Ms. Brady, the Illinois retiree, has no regrets about selling near the bottom. The stock market is a popular topic of conversation in her art classes at the local senior center, and when she sees the market going up, she sometimes wonders about the gains she is missing out on. Her account is about half of its value at the start of 2008.

"I wasn't comfortable," Ms. Brady said. "It's not just about money."

Job Seekers: How to Negotiate a Higher Offer

by AnnaMaria Andriotis

With an average of five unemployed people now vying for each job opening, according to the nonprofit Economic Policy Institute, employers who are hiring can afford to be picky — and tight-fisted. Many companies are reducing compensation for their existing employees, which means they’re more likely to offer lower salaries to new hires, says Fred Crandall, a senior consultant at human resources consulting firm Watson Wyatt. In April, 21% of employers had reduced employee compensation, according to a Watson Wyatt survey, up from 7% in February.

And while you may feel compelled to accept any job offer, failing to negotiate a compensation package can cost you. These days, employers who engage in such “lowballing” are offering an average 10% to 15% less than what they would have offered before the recession began, says Ford Myers, president of Career Potential, a Haverford, Pa.-based career coaching and consulting firm.

Here’s how you can find out how much you’re worth in this economy — and how to get it.

Know How Much Your Peers Make

Start your research at Salary.com, which offers free salary range reports based on your job title and location. You can also purchase reports that show salary ranges based on education and experience. Entry-level position reports cost $30 each, while midlevel and executive reports cost $50 and $80, respectively. Another free resource: the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Occupational Outlook Handbook, which includes median salary statistics for hundreds of occupations.

For more personalized advice, team up with a headhunter who specializes in your industry, says Bonnie Monych, a career coach based in The Woodlands, Texas. Headhunters track average salary ranges and can tell you what skills are most sought-after by employers in your field. Public libraries and professional industry associations often keep lists of local headhunters. Your employed friends may also help with referrals.

Finally, consider broadcasting your request to your Facebook and Twitter contacts. You can’t just ask someone how much they make, but you’d be surprised how many people would be willing to share a typical salary range for their field, says Annemarie Segaric, owner of the Pelham, N.Y.-based Career Changer Company, which offers career coaching. LinkedIn users can join industry networking groups and post questions about salary trends.

Polish Up Your Skills — and Boast Them

Faced with tight budgets, few companies these days are willing to spend money on training new hires, says Joe Kilmartin, managing director of compensation consulting at Salary.com. Instead, they’re looking for applicants who can hit the ground running from the first day on the job. During your interviews, ask what the company is looking for and explain how you can fulfill those needs, says Robert Todd, head of compensation and benefits operations at Novartis Vaccines & Diagnostics, which is currently hiring.

Training or certification programs can hone your skills or acquire new ones. The good news: Many courses are offered for free. The Department of Labor’s Career Voyages program, for example, provides educational and apprenticeship information for auto workers transitioning to careers in public safety, marketing or sales. And many prestigious universities, including Harvard University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Yale University, post the materials that professors use to teach their regular classes on the web for free. States also receive funding from the federal government for one-stop career centers. Services vary by center but include interview preparation and training events.

Don’t Be Afraid to Negotiate

Many employers won’t extend their best offer unless you negotiate, says Monych. So now is the time to use all that research and come up with a desired salary range. Don’t be afraid to ask for a 10% increase from your last salary -- especially if you were underpaid. Ranges for five-figure salaries should be within $10,000 (for example, $60,000 to $70,000), while six-figure salary ranges can be wider (say, $100,000 to $140,000).

When an employer doesn’t budge from their initial offer, try negotiating other terms, like an extra week’s vacation, says Segaric. Or see if your employer will consider a raise six months after you start working — assuming that you meet their performance standards.

Copyrighted, SmartMoney.com. All Rights Reserved.

Tuesday, 19 May 2009

With stocks making triple digit gains on Monday some investors are asking, "is the action the start of the next leg higher -- or is it a su...cker's rally?"

Hedge fund manager Andy Kessler isn't riding this bull. In fact he's taking it by the horns.

In last week's Wall Street Journal he laid out a case that seems rather compelling for the bears. We found his perspectives so intriguing we asked Kessler to join us as a guest on Fast Money.

He told us in no uncertain terms, this sure smells to me like a su....ckers rally largely because there aren't sustainable, fundamental reasons for the market's continued rise.

Kessler believes it all comes back to the banks. Although they’re up something like 30% over the last few months the gains were not based on strong profits but rather the notion that “financial Armageddon was off the table.”

“I don’t think the bank problems are solved,” he says on Fast Money. “What were called toxic assets only two months ago are now called legacy assets. (And yet) the banking problems are not solved.”

And in the WSJ he adds, “you can't have a profitless recovery.

Essentially Kessler feels that government actions drove bank stocks, which in turn led the market higher. (In other words an artificial catalyst). As a result the move does not reflect fundamental hurdles still facing the market including:

- Subpart earnings
- Weak demand for Treasurys
- Big changes in health care

And that's just the beginning of Kessler's rather long long list.

Perhaps another way of saying it is this: the fundamentals don’t point to the same kind of rosy outlook as the recent moves in stocks suggest.

And “until these issues are resolved, I don't see the stock market going much higher,” Kessler says.

What’s the bottom line? “I think the whole (rally) is engineered to solve the bank problems. I don’t have a problem with that but I don’t want to be the *censored* buying into the rally.”

Monday, 18 May 2009

Zoellick sees return to growth

WARSAW - THE global economy may return to growth in late 2009 or in 2010, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said on Monday, and European banking officials also saw tentative signs the financial crisis could be easing.

In Asia, credit rating agency Moody's stripped Japan of its AAA rating on its foreign currency debt, but manufacturing and consumer sentiment edged up, keeping alive hopes the storm hitting the world's No. 2 economy might be abating.

European stock markets followed Asia higher and Wall Street was forecast to rise, too, following better-than-expected earnings from US home improvement chain Lowe's.

The standout market was India where the 30-share BSE index jumped more than 17 per cent, the biggest single-day gain in almost two decades, after the ruling coalition secured a decisive election victory.

Mr Zoellick, speaking during a trip to Warsaw, said the pace of decline in the global economy was set to slow. 'The question is when we will return to growth in the global system and that could be late 2009 or 2010. I don't think this will be 2011,' he said.

Last week, Mr Zoellick stressed the high degree of uncertainty still colouring the outlook for the global economy. Once-booming Central and eastern Europe have been particularly hard hit by investors fleeing riskier emerging markets. The crisis could have an impact on short-term foreign direct investment in the emerging world, he said.

Many economists and policymakers are cautiously optimistic that sharp interest rate cuts, fiscal packages and bank bailouts will eventually succeed and that the world has probably seen the worst of the deepest recession since World War Two.

European Central Bank policymaker Axel Weber said he believed the bank's efforts to boost the eurozone economy were sufficient. 'Unless things get noticeably worse, in my view, the package of measures decided until now is sufficient,' Weber, who also heads Germany's Bundesbank, told the Financial Times Deutschland.

The euro zone's trade balance swung into a surplus in March from deficits the previous month and a year earlier as exports dipped marginally more slowly than imports, data showed. The unadjusted external trade surplus of the 16 countries using the euro came to 400 million euros (S$790.8 million) against deficits of 1 billion euros in February and 2.3 billion in March 2008, the European Union's statistics office said.

Adjusted for seasonal swings, the euro zone still had a 2.1 billion euro trade deficit in March, but that gap was smaller than February's 2.9 billion euros and January's 6.6 billion shortfall. -- REUTERS

Equity markets seen bottom

By Michelle Tay

EQUITY markets have bottomed out and there is growing evidence to support the 'green shoots theory' that is gaining momentum, according to BlackRock's global equities head.

Mr Bob Doll, vice-chairman and chief investment officer of global equities at the investment firm that manages US$1.3 trillion worth of assets, observes that equity markets are up more than 30 per cent since the last low of Mar 6, when the S&P 500 index hit dropped to 666 points.

As such, there is only 'at most a 20 per cent chance' of the S&P falling below that level from now on, he said.

Speaking at a media briefing in the firm's local office, Mr Doll explained there were three factors suggesting the latest bear market rally was different from the four previous abortive ones.

Firstly, the current rally has been marked by strong momentum and expanding volume on the upside, as well as diminishing momentum and volume on the downside.

Secondly, more cyclical areas of the market, such as consumer spending and technology, have been outperforming - trends that tend to occur when recoveries begin.

And thirdly, earnings estimates during the other four rallies had continued to come down, whereas they are currently stabilising or moving slightly higher.

Mr Doll said it was, however, premature to call the start of a new bull market.

Over the coming months, he predicts the United States will outperform Europe and emerging markets will outperform developed ones.

Policy responses to the credit crisis have been stronger and more rapid in the US than in other markets, he noted, with US stocks tending to be less volatile than those in most other markets.

But do not expect a consumption-led recovery, he said, as the US consumer's savings rate has upped from zero to 5 per cent, and may rise further to 8 or 10 per cent.

'There is a prospect that we will witness the start of an economic recovery by the end of the year, and that could lead into subpar, but positive, growth in 2010,' added Mr Doll.

Compared to western economies, he could see 'particular pockets of strength in Asia' driven by the Chinese consumer sector, which is being fuelled by the country's massive stimulus programme.

The property market in Hong Kong is showing signs of stabilisation, thus providing opportunities there, he added.

As for green shoots, Mr Doll said: 'There is evidence for better things coming. But green shoots means the majority of what we're looking at is brown.'

Sunday, 17 May 2009

Tall people earn more

MELBOURNE - TALL people earn higher wages than their vertically-challenged counterparts while being obese does not mean a slimmed-down pay packet, according to a new study in Australia.

The researchers found a strong link between wages and height, particularly for men, with each additional 10cm of height adding three percent to hourly wages.

The 'height premium' was two per cent per 10cm for women, researchers from the University of Sydney and Canberra's Australian National University (ANU) found.

They calculated that every 5cm above the average height of 178cm boosted a male's wages by the equivalent of an extra year's experience in the labour force.

'This result holds constant across a number of other factors that also affect wages, such as age, race, family background, experience and education,' said ANU professor Andrew Leigh.

The researchers, who examined health and income data from almost 20,000 Australians, also found that being overweight did not mean a lighter pay packet - in contrast to previous studies.

'We were surprised to find that there seemed to be no wage penalty to being overweight or obese in the Australian labour market,' Prof Leigh said.

'This is in contrast with previous studies that used older data from the United States and Germany and found that people with higher (body mass index) earned lower wages.'

He said one explanation may be that because fat Australians were now in the majority, they did not face discrimination in the workplace. -- AFP

US uptick doesn't mean crisis is over: top US economist

FLORIANOPOLIS, Brazil (AFP) - - A few recent glimmers of economic hope emerging in the United States do not mean the global crisis is over, a top economist who advises US President Barack Obama said Saturday.

The crisis "is certainly the worst that I have seen in my career," Martin Feldstein, a 69-year-old Harvard economist and member of Obama's Economic Recovery Advisory Board told a world tourism conference in Brazil.

"The evidence simply doesn't support" the conclusion that the United States is on its way to a sustained recovery, said the academic, who also served as an advisor under former presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.

He added that Europe's economy is "equally bad if not worse than in the US," and "Japan has been hit even harder."

While some US observers and media in recent weeks have struck an optimistic tone on the back of a rebound in the stock market and positive results from big US banks, Feldstein said that was "temporary" because the bad news far outweighed the good.

He stressed that a "one-time rise in GDP due to the stimulus package" implemented by Obama's administration was being extrapolated across the rest of the year.

But he said that stimulus package, headlined as an 800-billion-dollar initiative spread over two or more years, in fact equated to just 300 billion dollars for this year.

That, Feldstein said, was less than half the 750 billion he estimated had been sliced out of the US economy by dramatic stock market losses, home price declines and a drop in residential construction caused by the crisis.

The package "is not strong enough, not targeted enough, to deal with these problems," he stated.

Feldstein noted that one-third of all mortgaged US homes were now worth less than the value of their loans, suggesting more owners would simply walk away and the rate of foreclosures would rise, further depressing house prices and causing a spiral.

"It is a very dangerous situation," Feldstein said.

A recovery was possible in 2010, the professor advanced, but added: "Frankly, that is just a hope."

He also warned of an impending slide in the value of the US dollar after the crisis because of the massive US trade deficit, a scenario that would drive up the trade-weighted value of the euro, making European exports more expensive.

In the past three weeks, the bad news has piled up in the United States.

Official data showed the economy shrank 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009, with unemployment climbing towards what analysts predicted would be nearly 10 percent by year's end.

Auto giants General Motors and Chrysler are in distress, and US airlines have reported a seven-percent drop in travel for the summer vacation period.

US industrial production continued to fall in April, by 0.5 percent, after a 1.7 percent decline in March. US consumer prices dipped on an annual basis at the steepest pace in nearly 54 years.

Swine flu set to spread, reported cases surge: WHO

GENEVA (AFP) - - Swine flu will spread further across the world, experts at the World Health Organisation warned Friday, as the number of confirmed cases surged by more than 1,000 and the US reported two more deaths.

Acting WHO Assistant Director-General Keiji Fukuda told reporters that studies by experts indicated a "significant number of people" had been infected, but remained undetected or unconfirmed by laboratory tests.

"Their work also suggests that the virus is transmissible enough that we will expect to see continued community level outbreaks and regional spread," he told a WHO meeting in Geneva on pandemic preparedness.

The latest WHO data showed 7,520 people in 34 countries were confirmed to have caught the influenza A(H1N1) virus, up 1,000 from Thursday.

According to the figures, most of the deaths had occurred in Mexico, where the Mexican officials said death toll rose by two on Friday to 66 with the epidemic having sickened 2,829 people there.

"We cannot know when we will have it contained," Mexican Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova admitted at his daily press briefing.

But, he said, "I expect in this month or next we can be very close ... and that most of the cases will be sporadic."

US health officials also upped the number of US deaths from three to five, reporting that one person had died in Arizona as well as a young man in Texas. Of the three previous US deaths, two were in Texas and one was in Washington state.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the number of confirmed and probable cases had reached 4,714, with only four states -- Alaska, Mississippi, West Virginia and Wyoming -- having been spared so far.

On Friday, New York City authorities were forced to close three schools, sending home 4,500 students, after an assistant principal of one of the schools was hospitalised in serious condition.

But US officials are poised to relax a travel advisory for Mexico, some three weeks after warning against non-essential travel to the country, which had been at the epicentre of the outbreak.

"Later today, the CDC will likely be posting a downgrade to the travel warning that regards Mexico," Martin Cetron, CDC head of the global migration and quarantine division.

"The warning, which is at a level four alert, will be downgraded to a travel precaution which will focus on those individuals at high risk for complications from influenza," he said.

WHO Director-General Margaret Chan noted the virus had "quickly demonstrated its capacity to spread easily from one person to another, to spread widely within an affected country and to spread rapidly to additional countries."

"We expect this pattern of international spread to continue," she said.

"This is a time of great uncertainty, and great pressure on governments, ministries of health and WHO," she added.

Fresh updates continued to come in from governments around the world, as Ecuador said it had found its first case.

The 11-year-old victim in the port city of Guayaquil arrived from Miami in the United States only days earlier, reported an official, who requested anonymity.

Meanwhile, experts warned that the fallout of the swine flu epidemic is hitting the travel industry hard, and international tourism risks sliding heavily if the swine flu spread is upgraded to a pandemic.

"The probability of a full blown pandemic is relatively low, but there might be another outbreak in full force of swine flu in the next winter in the northern hemisphere," an economist at Britain's Oxford Economics firm, John Walker, told AFP.

If that happened the number of passengers could drop "up to 60 percent," he warned.

The WHO's Fukuda said the behaviour of the virus would change depending on "whether it is winter period in one part of the world or another."

The virus had "a very different pattern" from normal, seasonal flu, warned Fukuda: half of those who had died had been young and otherwise healthy adults.

"Right now we don't know what the future will bring," he added.

Saturday, 16 May 2009

IMF chief sees global economy recovering in 2010

VIENNA (AFP) - - IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said Friday that he expected the global economy to recover in the first half of next year.

"We still see a recovery in first semester of 2010 and the beginning of the turning point in October, November or December" this year, the head of the International Monetary Fund told a news conference in the Austrian capital.

Economists See Long Road to Recovery

by Phil Izzo

Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal survey see an end to the recession by autumn, but say it will take years for the economy to fully recover.

"In general, I think it will be a subdued recovery," said Paul Kasriel of The Northern Trust Corp.

On average, the 52 economists who participated in the survey project that the recession will end in August. They expect gross domestic product to contract 1.4% at a seasonally adjusted annualized pace in the current quarter, compared with the 6.1% drop recorded in the first quarter. Slow growth is expected to return by the third quarter, with the economy expanding more than 2% in the first half of 2010.

The survey was conducted before the Commerce Department's report this week that retail sales fell 0.4% in April from the previous month, which left some economists questioning whether consumer spending is ready to rebound. Initial unemployment claims released Thursday brought more gloomy news: Seasonally adjusted claims in the week ended May 9 increased 32,000 to 637,000 from a revised 605,000 in the preceding week. Most of the losses can be chalked up to Chrysler LLC's 27,000 layoffs following its April 30 bankruptcy filing.

Separately, the April producer price index, which gauges prices at the wholesale level, rose 0.3%, driven by growth in food prices. The core price index, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.1%.

Even before the new data were released, economists were expecting a major pullback in consumption. Nearly three-quarters of survey respondents said the recent increase in the U.S. saving rate is the beginning of a major behavioral shift.

"Savings rates will remain above pre-bubble levels," said Scott Anderson of Wells Fargo & Co.

A consumer retrenchment is one factor that is likely to make any recovery a long slog. The economists on average expect the unemployment rate to climb to 9.7% by the end of the year, with two million more jobs lost over the next 12 months, even as growth returns to the economy.

The depth of the downturn means it will take years to eat up the slack created by the recession. To gain back ground lost and bring down unemployment, the economy has to grow by more than its potential rate. Nearly half of the economists said it will take three to four years to close the output gap, while more than a quarter say it will take five to six years.

"We're going through a transition in the economy back to a more normal share of consumer spending relative to GDP," said Paul Kasriel of The Northern Trust Corp. "This is a very deep and defining recession that is going to lead to a transformed U.S. economy, and these transformations don't take place overnight."

The survey respondents were more positive about the financial sector. A third of the economists said the recently completed bank stress tests were a well-done and very constructive process, while half said they were helpful even if they understated risks. Last week, the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department released the results of tests to gauge how well banks' balance sheets would withstand the recession. The tests found that even though some banks may need more capital, all the top institutions were solvent. Meanwhile, more than three-quarters said President Barack Obama's administration won't have to go back to Congress for more money to aid banks.

"The best things about the stress tests was the timing of the release," said Lou Crandall of Wrightson ICAP. "The tests kept everything in limbo for a while, getting past the hurdle of recapitalization just as the data started to suggest the approach of a floor. That makes this a good time for the banking system to start the next phase of cleaning up the balance sheet.

Half the respondents said that fiscal and monetary stimulus has provided the basis for a sustainable recovery. Twenty-seven percent said it has boosted the economy, but they had doubts about sustainability. "The Fed has the big guns and has effectively averted a depression or a much more severe recession," said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial.

The role of the Fed in stabilizing the market has boosted the outlook for Chairman Ben Bernanke. On average, the economists say there is a 72% chance that Mr. Obama will reappoint the Fed chairman in 2010. "If there's a hero to this piece, it's Ben Bernanke," Mr. Kasriel said.

The Economic Slump: What We've Learned

by Ben Stein

Are we at the bottom of the recession? The stores I see are empty, except for grocery stores. The car dealers are disaster areas. But the airports are mobbed and hotels are jammed where I travel, which is pretty much everywhere.

But more important than my anecdotes are statistical data. Inventories are shrinking rapidly, usually a good sign in a recession because they then have to be filled up again. Real estate sales are moving up sharply in some highly distressed areas, and prices have stopped falling in some of the same areas. The new unemployment numbers are still extremely distressing but nowhere near as bad as they were expected to be just a few weeks ago. They show a definite moderation in the rate of new layoffs.

There is some firmness in prices of minerals, and growth has resumed for several of our largest trading partners, including Canada and China.

Recovery Could Be Near

So while predicting the future is impossible, to put it mildly, and while false dawns abound in economic life, the era of nonstop disastrous economic news seems to be over, at least for now. That often portends a recovery.

So as we survey the wreckage -- the stock market still, even after the stunning recent rally, down close to 40 percent from its October 2007 peak; jobs nearly impossible to come by for many college and grad school graduates; entire regions of the nation laid waste; retirement plans for an entire generation simply demolished -- what have we learned in the personal-finance realm?

One, we must plan for not just a poor outcome but for the possibility of outright disaster. Whatever the Monte Carlo simulators told us about outcomes was wildly optimistic. Even when we were in stunning prosperity, as we seemed to be in the spring of 2007, events were moving toward true calamity. Very few of us were prepared. We were like the passengers on the Poseidon, partying hearty as a murderous wave was about to capsize our hopes and dreams.

We have to own enough federally insured cash, short-term Treasury instruments, and NCUA-insured credit union accounts to tide us over during truly horrific periods that can last for years. This recession has already gone on for close to 18 months. Even if we have hit bottom, we have no signs yet of a robust recovery (except for fantastic growth in the money supply, which will eventually mean either recovery or inflation or both). That means we could be in the muck and mire for years. This means we must have liquidity -- safe liquidity -- to get us through bad days.

A Winning Strategy

This, as I have said before, is the premise of my pal Raymond J. Lucia's "buckets of money" strategy. This very sensible plan has the investor "bucketized" so his or her liquidity can keep them going until growth in stocks resumes. It has been the only strategy I have seen that works in true disasters like this one. It makes sense, but you have to look into it and decide for yourself.

Second, we have to apologize to the insurance companies. For years they have been offering us spectacularly good deals on variable annuities with guaranteed floors to protect us against collapses such as the one we have had recently. They have been offering us not only floors but actual guarantees of minimum growth of the portfolio. Too many of us turned up our noses at the offers. Now the offers are not quite as good as they were, but we still know that we need -- desperately need -- guaranteed income in our declining years. The insurance companies can sell it to us. If we do not have it yet, we should get it.

Be Diversified

Third, we have to be even more diversified than we thought -- once we have enough cash to make us sleep at night. Some investments have performed far better than others, although everything but cash has basically been murdered.

Fourth, we have to live sensibly (here, as I have noted, I do not practice what I preach). "There is no calamity worse than lavish desires," as the saying goes.

Fifth, we have to know when to sell and when to buy. Real estate has gone through an agonizing correction. It cannot go on forever. The times when there is total pessimism about houses are often the best times to buy. If you are highly liquid and have a secure job, now may be the moment to do so. In every housing crash of my lifetime, those who bought when there was blood in the real estate agents' offices have come out happy years down the road. No real estate crash lasts forever, and this one won't either. Are we at the very bottom? We don't know. We do know we are a long way from the top.

No one can tell the future. But we can tell a bit about the past. Security has now shown itself to be a rare and beautiful thing. Very, very safe assets are how we get there economically. This has been a terrifying ride, and we can hope it's almost over -- but we can also hope we have learned something about the past and the future.

Friday, 15 May 2009

This is the situation ON THE GROUND from an American

>> And on the surface green shoots are being shot everywhere.

---quote---
I live near a small town with a now 1/3 occupied industrial park as several auto suppliers bellied up and as I write one more idles next week. Another 130 insignificant jobs lost I suppose as Wall St doesn't care.

You could take your pick of five pizza places and now you can pick from two. Three places to sit down and just drink coffee and now there is one. Four decent eateries and now there are two. Three places to rent and buy videos and games and now only one in a grocery store. You need your car fixed? Oil changed? You must drive 20 miles since both garages bit the dust.

We had six landscaping companies in and around here and now just a few souls with mowers that might sell mulch too. The others died and sold their equipment, auctioned their nursery stock last fall.

Our area of the Interstate highway at noon on a weekday now looks like Sunday morning at 7 am used to. Boat dealerships gone, RV's are like what's that? Both hit the skids in 2007. Truck traffic extremely low. No worries of getting caught at RR crossings either, less trains by 70%.

Empty buildings growing, foreclosures and bankruptcy ramping up, jobs scarce as hen's teeth, thefts on the rise, broken promises-broken dreams and folks are excited about stocks.... gimmie a break. The landscape in the real world is littered with corpses without let up.

This is sad, this is tragic and this is what America is becoming step by step and most of us see no end to it. The losses are beyond the official numbers you can be sure. I've lost nothing material myself yet it hurts me like bloody hell to see my country struggle so.
---unquote---

Thursday, 14 May 2009

Breaking News: Imminent Big Bank Failure on Overnight Bank L

By: Nadeem_Walayat


Jim Willie of the Hat trick Newsletter has just sent an urgent message of a potential imminent big bank failure that would be expected to hit the financial markets hard - message as follows -



just got word from a reliable source with an excellent track record
he calls me every several weeks when he has something very critical to share
he wants me to put the word out and to see what comes back to confirm or add to the story
an extremely large overnight bank transaction loan failed last night, gathering major attention
it started in US west coast, went to Hong Kong, then Singapore, then London
it failed in London, by that is meant no return was given on the overnight loan
he guessed the size was something like $10 to $30 billion
he suspected (without much direct evidence) that it was Citigroup
he believes the failing bank is a London subsidiary for a giant US-based bank
he likened it to a plumbing blockage with extreme backup consequences
he expects a ripple effect to cause shock waves, or a flood of sewage
we wondered if it could have Commercial Paper consequences, since often used in overnights
he has five expert friends watching for specific market reactions, like LIBOR

so be on the lookout
in February, this source said that in May June timeframe, foreign creditors
will put the screws to the US bankers, who are recognized as totally corrupt
foreigner big bankers want to remove some power levers from US control

QUOTE ME IF YOU WISH
my source remains anonymous
/ jim

By Nadeem Walayat

Enjoy the rally while it lasts

Our delicious spring rally is nearing the limits. The 40pc rise on global bourses since March assumes that central banks have conjured away the debt overhang by slashing rates to zero and printing money. Nothing of the sort has occurred. Two thirds of the world economy will be in deflation by July.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Bear market rallies can be explosive. Japan had four violent spikes during its Lost Decade (33pc, 55pc, 44pc, and 79pc). Wall Street had seven during the Great Depression, lasting 40 days on average. The spring of 1931 was a corker.

James Montier at Société Générale said that even hard-bitten bears are starting to throw in the towel, suspecting that we really are on the cusp of new boom. That is a tell-tale sign.

"Prolonged suckers' rallies tend to be especially vicious as they force everyone back into the market before cruelly dashing them on the rocks of despair yet again," he said. Genuine bottoms tend to be "quiet affairs", carved slowly in a fog of investor gloom.

Another sign of fakery – apart from the implausible 'V' shape – is the "dash for trash" in this rally. The mostly heavily shorted stocks are up 70pc: the least shorted are up 21pc. Stocks with bad fundamentals in SocGen's model (Anheuser-Busch, Cairn Energy, Ericsson) are up 60pc: the best are up 30pc.

Teun Draaisma, Morgan Stanley's stock guru, expects another shake-out. "We think the bear market rally will end sooner rather than later. None of our signposts of the next bull market has flashed green yet. We're not convinced the banking system has been fully fixed," he said

Mr Draaisma said US housing busts typically last nearly about 42 months. We are just 26 months into this one. The overhang of unsold properties on the US market is still near a record 11 months. He expects the new bull market to kick off later this year – perhaps in October – anticipating real recovery in 2010.

Keep an eye on the upward creep in yields on the 10-year US Treasury, the benchmark price of world credit. This alone threatens to short-circuit the rally. The yield reached 3.3pc last week, up over 1pc since January and above the level in March when the US Federal Reserve first launched its buying blitz to pull rates down. Bond vigilantes are taunting the Bank of England in much the same way, driving the 10-year gilt yield to 3.73pc.

The happy view is that this tightening of the bond markets is proof of recovery fever, but there is a dark side.

Governments need to raise $6 trillion (£4 trillion) this year to fund bail-outs and deficits, led by this abject isle with needs of 13.8pc of GDP (EU figures). China fired a warning shot last week, saying the West risks setting off "inflation for the whole world" by printing money. It hinted at a bond crisis.

Yes, the glass is half full. China's PMI optimism gauge has jumped back above the recession line. The global PMI has been rising for seven months. But this usually happens after a crash as companies rebuild battered inventories for a quarter or two.

Note that container volumes in Shanghai fell 17pc in January, 22pc in February, and 9pc in March. Rail freight volumes in the US were down 32pc in April on a year earlier.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) says the US recession will be over by summer, insisting that its leading indicators have never been wrong – except once, in the Great Depression. Quite.

SocGen's other bear, Albert Edwards, says the new element in this slump is that GDP is contracting in "nominal" terms, not just real terms. Money incomes are flat. It is a crucial difference.

"This is like drinking hemlock. The US is gradually slipping further towards outright deflation, just as Japan did," he said. As companies retrench en masse they risk tipping the whole economy into Irving Fisher's "debt deflation trap".

If we are spared – still a big if – we can thank a handful of central bank governors and policy-makers who tore up the rule book, defied tabloid opinion, and took revolutionary action in the nick of time.

We owe much to the Fed's Ben Bernanke (leaving aside past sins as Greenspan's cheerleader), to Britain's Mervyn King, and the Canadian, Japanese and Swiss governors. Hats off, too, to the Greek speakers at the European Central Bank who have just carried out a monetary putsch, outflanking German tank-traps on the Rhine. The hero is Athanasios Orphanides, the Cypriot governor who drafted the Fed's anti-deflation strategy during his 17-year stint in Washington.

The ECB's belated embrace of QE is a watershed moment, even if only a token purchase of €60bn of covered bonds. What poisoned the early 1930s was beggar-thy-neighbour monetary policies. Any country that tried to reflate alone was punished by currency flight (gold loss), yet the mediocrities in charge lacked the imagination to reflate together.

We can now test the Friedman-Bernanke hypothesis that the Fed could have halted the Depression by letting rip with bond purchases. Japan was not a proper test. It eked out a recovery of sorts earlier this decade by embracing QE, but only in the context of a global boom and a yen crash.

There is at least one more boil to lance before we put this debt debacle behind us. The IMF says eurozone banks have so far written down a fifth of likely losses ($750bn) compared to half for US banks. They must raise $375bn in fresh capital. Good luck.

Germany's BaFin regulator goes further, warning of $1.1 trillion of toxic assets on German bank books. Landesbanken are a calamity. If the IMF and BaFin are right, Europe has not yet had its crisis. When it does, we will see a second stress pulse through Eastern Europe and Club Med.

The echoes of 1931 are ominous. That year began with green shoots, until Austria's Credit-Anstalt buckled in the summer and took Central Europe with it. Continentals who still thought it was an American crisis learned otherwise. Plus ça change.

I Would Not Own Bank Stocks: Meredith Whitney

Banks are overvalued and the government enabled them to have better first quarter earnings than they should, well-known analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.
Meredith Whitney
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"At a core basis, I would not own these stocks," Whitney said in a live interview. "Their business models are not going to come back."

Whitney, a former analyst at Oppenheimer who has her own firm, is renowned for calling out the problems with banks' toxic assets before the issue became widespread.

"This is the great government momentum trade," Whitney said on why bank stocks had seen some improvement lately. "But the underlying core, earnings power of these banks is negligible."

Whitney also said that consumer spending is still going to remain slow. "There's a massive retraction in consumer liquidity," said Whitney. "Credit contraction is happening at an accelerated pace. Consumer spending is going to be less than people expect going forward."

She cited Bank of America [BAC 12.94 -1.23 (-8.68%) ] as an example of credit contraction. "They cut more than $200 billion in credit card lines in the first quarter of this year," said Whitney. "Consumers are not going to spend money."

Whitney also said that the rules of trading have changed because of the government's role. "For investors, you invest on what you know to be the rules of the game," said Whitney. "But with the government involved, no rules apply."

Whitney said the changing rules create a big problem for investors going forward. "The biggest danger here is having the retail investor shout out for a period of time because they don't know who to trust on market values."

© 2009 CNBC.com

U.S. banking crisis may last until 2013: S&P

By Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A day after saying big U.S. banks probably needed to raise only one-fourth the capital demanded by the government, Standard & Poor's said the nation's banking crisis has "merely entered a new phase" and might not end before 2013.

The credit rating agency said the industry is being propped up by hundreds of billions of dollars of government support, especially for lenders considered too important to the financial system to fail.

While efforts to spur lending, take bad assets off banks' balance sheets, and restart the market for packaging and selling securities may help the sector, S&P said banks will have a tough time surviving absent a bigger capital cushion than regulators require.

"There's nothing to say that this banking crisis can't go on for another three or four years," S&P Managing Director Tanya Azarchs said.

S&P did not immediately return a request for comment.

On Tuesday, S&P said major U.S. banks need to raise about $18 billion of capital to protect themselves from the economic downturn, though this amount could grow if conditions worsen.

The amount is well below the $74.6 billion that the government last week ordered 10 of the largest U.S. banks, led by Bank of America Corp and Wells Fargo & Co, to plug potential capital shortfalls.

These 10 banks were among 19 subjected to government "stress tests" to gauge their readiness to withstand a particularly severe recession in 2009 and 2010.

The other nine, including JPMorgan Chase & Co and Goldman Sachs Group Inc, got clean bills of health when stress test results were released on May 7.

S&P on May 4 said it may lower its ratings for 23 U.S. banks and thrifts, including 10 that underwent stress tests, citing concern about the industry's capitalization.

It said the 23 companies had at least a 50 percent chance of being downgraded within 90 days.

(Reporting by Jonathan Stempel; Editing by Richard Chang)

Three Keys to End the Recession

The "green shoots" theory was looking a little brown around the edges Wednesday as stocks fell sharply following weak April retail sales data and another spike in foreclosures.

Noted bear Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., says the recent improvement in economic activity was not a sign the worst has passed but a head fake that's typical in most recessions. There have been positive quarters of GDP growth in 8 of 11 recessions since WW2, and the stock market rallied in sync, Shilling notes.

As for the current cycle, he says three trends have to emerge before it'll be safe to declare the end of the downturn, despite the Fed's efforts to flood the system with money:

* Housing bottom: A reduction in the excess inventory of homes, which he estimates are approximately 2 million (down from 2.8 million a few months ago but still very high.)
* A real resolution of the financial crisis: Like John Hussman and others, Shilling isn't convinced the stress tests results proved anything, much less marked the end of the crisis. He's concerned about rising bad loans in sectors outside of residential mortgages, including commercial real estate, auto loans, student loans and credit cards.
* More stimulus: Shilling estimates Obama's $787 billion package only contained about $200 billion will actually stimulate the economy. With Americans in savings mode, including sitting on recent tax rebates, the government is going to need to do more to "break the cycle of a consumer who is cautious, which means less spending, less production more inventory problems, and more layoffs," he says.

If those three trends turn, then Shilling sees the recession ending in early 2010. That's the potential good news. The bad news is, just like Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian, he's forecasting a "slow recovery" and subpar growth after that for many years to come.

Signs A Stock Is Ready To Slide

Glenn Curtis

A company might be a poor candidate for investment if it generates subpar earnings, or has weak cash flow or perhaps a flimsy balance sheet. But there are also other characteristics that can be major turnoffs and harbingers of unpleasant things to come. Keep an eye out for these clues that the other shoe might be ready to drop.

Missing an Already Lowered Forecast
It is not uncommon for publicly traded companies to lower the earnings guidance that they provide from time to time. Companies may do so when the macroeconomic situation darkens or when a company-specific issue arises. That said, when a company sets the new, lowered, earnings bar, it is important that they clear it and do not miss the revised forecast.

Why? For one, if the company does not meet the new projection it can have a negative impact on the morale of retail and/or institutional shareholders and their ability to trust management. In other words, it can leave shareholders and those sitting on the fence wondering what the future may look like on the earnings front. Secondly, the analyst community could end up bashing the company or its stock as a result of this missed forecast. They may seriously scale back their estimates and perhaps lower their rating on the shares. This in turn could have a negative effect on the share price.

Selling Near the Lows
It is also not uncommon for insiders at publicly traded companies to sell shares of their company's stock. And to be clear, there are often some very legitimate reasons for executives to unload their shares. For example, they may have to make tuition payments for their children, or perhaps they are in the process of buying a home and need funds. Other times, an insider may sell shares simply to book some profits and/or to diversify their holdings.

But there are some times when certain insider selling activity or transactions should raise a few eyebrows, such as when a group of executives suddenly decides to sell off a portion of their holdings. Individuals who sell a very large portion or percentage of their total holdings may also raise some flags, as well as insiders that sell at or near 52-week lows.

Executives that do sell near or at the lows seem to be saying that they think their money might be better deployed elsewhere. Again, this may or may not be true and it's unlikely that an executive or insider would admit to that. However, unloading shares at rock-bottom prices does sometimes convey that signal to the investment community.

Mum's the Word
It isn't always easy to provide the investment community with quarterly or annual financial forecasts. After all, corporations are large entities and the business environment can change rapidly over time. Plus, there is the chance that expected revenues could be pushed back to future quarters or bumped up. However, that doesn't mean that companies should not try to provide guidance; many retail and institutional investors like this type of handholding.

That said, one signal that trouble may be brewing is when a company abruptly discontinues its guidance. Doing so may signal that the company has no idea or doesn't expect to have an idea of when earnings could come in. Along those same lines, such silence may signal that macroeconomic or company-specific forces may have a huge impact on forward earnings, making an accurate forecast impossible. Neither scenario is particularly encouraging. But even beyond earnings guidance, a company that isn't forthcoming and doesn't update the investment community about its progress (or lack thereof) may be trying to sweep bad news under the rug. That's not always the case, but it's something to think about.

Dividend Cuts
Companies that pay dividends can be a big lure, particularly for income-oriented investors. In addition, the fact that a company pays a dividend is also often viewed as a sign that a company is doing well. However, when a dividend-paying company suddenly suspends its dividend, it may signal that the company is experiencing some sort of financial trouble. Also, by stopping the dividend, the company may see a fair amount of selling of its stock and turnover in its shareholder base as income-oriented investors unload the shares. Finally, a dividend suspension may come in advance of serious job cuts, plant closures or asset sales.

Halting Repurchases
If a company has been repurchasing shares and suddenly stops, it may signal that the company is short on cash or that it thinks that the shares aren't a good investment at the time. Frankly, neither scenario would be attractive.

A One-Trick Pony or Lack of Diversification
In order to be successful and achieve growth over time, it's important that a company introduces new products and remains innovative. Companies that don't innovate run the risk of becoming irrelevant if a superior product or improved technology hits the market. It's also highly important for a company to diversify its product offerings. The reason for this is simple: if a company were to stick to one product line or a small number of lines that run out of steam, that company could more easily go out of business. Long story short, keep a lookout for, and be wary of, companies that are stuck in neutral. This means companies that aren't coming out with new products and keeping up with the competition or companies that bet all their chips on the success of one product line.

Industry Indicators
Companies that operate in the same industry (for example, the auto industry) may experience similar trends. If one company is struggling in a certain market, its competitor may be as well. Investors should be on the lookout for signals of how the company may be doing from other industry participants. As an example, suppose an investor was to note that a competitor was experiencing a decline in margins in its European business. In such a case, it might be assumed that other companies are seeing the same kind of decline. On the flipside, a company experiencing a huge influx of orders from a region may be a sign that other companies in that industry are experiencing similar trends. Keep an eye peeled for industry trends as this could signal what is around the corner.

The Bottom Line
There are several indicators in addition to traditional valuation metrics that may signal trouble to come for a company's stock. Investors with a sharp eye and a willingness to do research may be able to limit or prevent losses because they see a shoe about to drop.

10 Things Your Bank Won't Tell You

by Jim Rendon

1. “We’re in survival mode.”

Banks may still be a safe place to stash your cash, with the FDIC now insuring up to $250,000 per depositor. But after years of lending money to just about anyone with a pulse, the industry is paying a steep price. Losses on bad loans issued during the credit bubble could top $1.4 trillion, according to the International Monetary Fund. With their balance sheets in tatters and stock prices in the gutter, some of America’s biggest banks have been forced to merge to survive. And even with the U.S. government infusing money into the system to get banks lending again, “the days of easy credit are gone,” says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst with Bankrate.com.

Customer service also seems to be a casualty of the credit crunch. With less money coming in, many big banks are cutting jobs, closing branches, and scaling back their call-center operations, says Mike Moebs, a bank industry consultant in Chicago. Moreover, employees left on the job now have to handle more customers and may have less flexibility to ease up on fees for overdrafts or other services. “Customer service is waning at the big banks,” says Moebs. “It’s a downward spiral.”

2. “Our fees will only go up.”

Don’t look now but punitive fees—for overdrawing your account, say, or using a competitor’s ATM—are increasing. The average ATM service charge doubled between 1998 and 2007, and overdraft fees brought in $17.5 billion in revenue in 2006, up from $10.3 billion in 2004, according to the Center for Responsible Lending. Rubecca Hegarty, a married mother of three in Woodridge, Ill., says she often pays upwards of $100 a month in overdraft fees to Chase, since, like most banks, it changes the order of purchases so that large debts get paid first— increasing the likelihood of incurring fees on smaller purchases>. JPMorgan Chase says it does this because big payments like a mortgage are more important to consumers, so they get priority.

Revenue from penalties can be addictive for banks, says Harvard Business School Professor Gail McGovern, but “They’re going to face problems from angry customers, which leads to big callcenter bills, employee dissatisfaction, and turnover.”
3. “We change our interest rates all the time.”

Regardless of what your credit card agreement says, you can never be sure how much interest banks will charge you. For example, nearly all cards have a default rate—as high as 30 percent— which banks apply when you’ve done something wrong, usually after two late payments in 12 months. But some banks have cut that to one, says Curtis Arnold, founder of CardRatings.com.

Banks can also change the terms of your agreement, raising rates when they like (though you can opt out and pay off the balance at the old rate as long as you never use the card again). Bank of America did that recently, upping many cardholders’ rates from 10 or 12 percent to 27 percent or more, even though they’d done nothing wrong. “There’s no clarity on what criteria can lead a bank to raise interest rates,” says Robert Manning, director of the Center for Consumer Financial Services at the Rochester Institute of Technology. “It’s a black box.” A Bank of America spokesperson says the company periodically reviews the credit risk of its accounts and adjusts rates accordingly, adding that in the past year 94 percent have had no increase.

4. “College campuses are a gold mine for us.”

Students are the customers of the future, and banks are increasingly courting them, sometimes right on campus. More than 120 universities have cut deals with banks to issue student-ID cards that are also ATM and check cards. Schools can make millions from these deals, sometimes even taking a small cut of individual purchases.

Students are also a hot market for credit card issuers; banks will make private deals with alumni associations to get contact info for students, parents, and ticket buyers to university athletic events. Card companies cut deals to set up booths on campus, and Chase even inked a deal with Facebook to display ads and set up a Chase group on its website.

The problem? Mounting credit card debt among college kids, for one. “Universities don’t negotiate on behalf of students,” says Manning. “They’re negotiating the best deal for the university.” A spokesperson for the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities says don’t blame schools—banks would market to students anyway, and universities at least try to get the best rates they can for students.

5. “In debt? The courts won’t help.”

Since the late 1990s, banks have been including mandatory arbitration agreements in their contracts for many of their products, including auto loans, checking accounts, home-equity loans, and credit cards. Such agreements prohibit you from suing and instead require you to use an arbitrator— someone picked by the arbitration firm named in your credit card contract to hear the dispute and decide the outcome.

While these clauses were originally designed to thwart class-action suits, the banks have also been using them for debt collection, says Paul Bland, an attorney with consumer-advocacy group Public Justice. There are even times when consumers, often victims of identity theft and unaware of the debt, aren’t present when awards are handed down against them.

A recent suit against an arbitration firm brought by the San Francisco city attorney noted that arbitrators ruled in favor of banks in 100 percent of the 18,045 California cases brought against consumers from January 2003 through March 2007. “From the consumer perspective, it’s a nightmare,” says Bland. If a bank brings arbitration against you, hire a lawyer and request a hearing—in person.

6. “We’re excited about your trip to Europe, too!”

It’s not bad enough that the dollar is hovering near historic lows against most major currencies, but when you travel overseas, every transaction comes with big fees attached. Take out cash from an ATM in London, and you’ll get hit with a foreign-transaction fee, plus a fee for using a competitor’s ATM. All told, it can cost up to $7 just to withdraw $200. Credit card purchases aren’t much better. Visa and MasterCard each charge 1 percent of the purchase for converting currency. And the issuing banks may take another cut, which can bring the total to 3 percent of your purchase price, says CardRatings.com’s Arnold. “If people don’t travel overseas very often, they just don’t think about it,” he says.

The best thing to do is see which of your cards charges the lowest overseastransaction fee. If you travel a lot, Arnold recommends a Capital One credit card, which charges no overseas-transaction fees (even refusing to pass on Visa and MasterCard’s 1 percent fee to customers). Also, ask your bank about partnerships with foreign banks. Bank of America, for example, partners with Barclays Bank, saving its customers $5 per withdrawal from the latter’s ATMs in the U.K.

7. “For all the fine print, we don’t disclose very much.”

Bank documents come loaded with small type, detailing terms and conditions. But good luck finding out exactly what you’re signing up for when you open an account. In 2007 the Government Accountability Office (GAO) sent investigators to see how well banks explained their fees and other conditions to potential customers. Though banks are required by law to make this information available, the GAO found that one third of the branches it surveyed didn’t provide the required information. Worse, more than half didn’t have any fee information on their websites.

Nessa Feddis, senior counsel at the American Bankers Association (ABA), questions the report’s methodology— banks failed the test if investigators waited more than 10 minutes for the information—and defends the lack of data online. Banks are afraid of leaving old, inaccurate information on their site if terms change, she says. But without details on fees, consumers can’t make educated choices. “Banks are not complying with the law,” says Ed Mierzwinski, consumer program director with the U.S. Public Interest Research Group. “People need more information so they can shop around for the best deal.”

8. “Your money might be better off elsewhere.”

Banks offer lots of ways to earn interest on your money—among them, simple savings, CDs, money-market accounts, and IRAs. But they don’t always yield the best return. In early 2009, the average savings account, for example, was paying about 0.5 percent interest. But even in this low-interest-rate climate, you can do better—3 percent or more—if you shop around. “It pays to be a free agent,” says Bankrate.com’s McBride. “There is tremendous disparity in the returns available.”

Banks have been expanding into other financial services for a decade or more, including comprehensive wealth management and financial planning, brokerage services, even insurance. The well-off customers who use these are a bank’s most profitable; they keep the highest balances and are less sensitive to fees, says Maryann Johnson, senior vice president of wealth market management at the ABA. That’s something to remember when you talk to a bank’s investment advisers: Many are paid a commission on investment products, says Certified Financial Planner Craig DuVarney, meaning they often go for the easy sale. “They don’t have the harder discussion about estate planning, tax bracket, and liquidity,” says DuVarney. Johnson sees it differently; she says banks take a more holistic approach and that their wealth managers serve much the same purpose as financial advisers, with bonuses for not only sales but also dollars invested, new clients, and even customer retention.

9. “When it comes to banks, smaller is sometimes better.”

Banks have been consolidating like crazy over the past decade. In 1990 the top 10 banks controlled 25 percent of the market; by 2008 they controlled half. This gives customers of large banks vast networks of free ATMs and branches across the country. But it hasn’t been entirely good for consumers, says Arthur E. Wilmarth, Jr., a professor at George Washington University Law School. Though big banks offer many conveniences, they can come at a price: high fees. In 2006 the 10 largest banks generated 54 percent of revenue from fees and service charges; by contrast, the 10 smallest banks generated just 28 percent from those sources.

Not only do big banks bring in more fee income but they also pay out less interest. According to FDIC data, smaller banks generally pay higher interest on savings accounts and other products. For example, in 2006 the 10 largest banks paid an average 1.87 percent in interest for savings accounts, while the smallest banks paid 4.37 percent. “The largest banks are no longer worried about being undercut on price,” Wilmarth says.

10. “Your online account info isn’t necessarily accurate.”

Online banking has changed the way people handle their finances. They can pay bills online, transfer funds, track payments, and get a more detailed view of their bank account than ever before. Unfortunately, it may not always show the proper balance. With electronic transactions, ATMs, check cards, and direct deposits, banking has gotten more complicated.

ATMs and online bank statements will show deposits available before the money is actually in your account. Using your debit card at a gas station or to reserve a hotel room, for example, can put a hold on funds. Some merchants may be slow to send in charges. And banks can sit on deposits—an out-of-state check may take up to five days to clear.

Add to that the constant reordering of debits, and your account balance can quickly become a moving target—hard to track accurately day to day. “Banks use different algorithms to process payments than what you see online,” says Harvard’s McGovern. “It gives you a false sense of security.”

Copyrighted, SmartMoney.com. All Rights Reserved.

Timothy Geithner : 'Healing has started'

WASHINGTON - US TREASURY Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday that the financial system 'is starting to heal' as a result of massive efforts to rescue banks and steady the housing market.
In a speech to community bankers, Mr Geithner said the adjustment in the financial system has largely been accomplished as a result of government rescue efforts.

'The financial system is starting to heal,' he said.

'Concern about systemic risk has diminished. And overall lending conditions have started to improve.' Mr Geithner said this is reflected in easier borrowing conditions for corporate bonds and interbank lending as well as for mortgages, where interest rates dropped to a historic low.

'These are all welcome signs, but the process of financial recovery and repair is going to take time,' he said.

Mr Geithner said the system is responding to efforts by the Federal Reserve and Treasury to get more credit flowing and keep rates low, including moves to clean up so-called 'toxic assets' that are weighing on banks' ability to lend.

Also important were the 'stress tests' conducted on major banks, which he said would 'bring greater transparency and new capital into the financial system'.

'We have already seen a substantial amount of adjustment in our financial system. Leverage has declined. The more vulnerable parts of the non-bank financial system no longer exist,' he said.

'Banks are funding themselves more conservatively. These are necessary changes, and there is more restructuring ahead for the financial industry as a whole. But a substantial part of the adjustment process is now behind us.' -- AFP

Wednesday, 13 May 2009

Greenspan Sees ‘Seeds of a Bottoming’ in U.S. Housing

By Vivien Lou Chen and Dawn Kopecki

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that the decline in the U.S. housing market may be bottoming and it’s “very easy to see” financial markets continuing to improve.

“We are finally beginning to see the seeds of a bottoming” in the housing industry, Greenspan said today during a conference of the National Association of Realtors in Washington. The U.S. is “at the edge of a major liquidation” in the stock of unsold properties, which may help to stabilize prices, Greenspan said.

Home-sales figures in recent weeks have shown a slower pace of decline, and the slide in property prices has eased, according to gauges including the S&P/Case-Shiller index.

The former Fed chief, who was among the first prominent economists to warn about the risk of a recession in 2007, said housing prices could fall another 5 percent without putting too much strain on the economy.

“We run into trouble if it’s very significantly more than that,” Greenspan said. Housing prices remain “the critical Achilles’ heel” of the economy.

While the housing bottom may not be obvious in prices, it is becoming clear in “significant regional differences,” where some of the hardest-hit areas are starting to show signs of improvement, he said.

Greenspan said in congressional testimony in October that “a flaw” in his free-market ideology contributed to the “once-in-a-century” credit crisis.

Less Trouble

Today, Greenspan said companies are having less trouble raising money. U.S. firms have sold bonds at a record pace so far this year, including a $3.75 billion offering today from Microsoft Corp., the world’s largest software maker.

Wells Fargo & Co. and Morgan Stanley raised $16.6 billion in stock and bond sales on May 8, just a day after the government ordered them to raise capital, becoming the first banks to respond to the government’s mandate.

“Company after company has been raising capital and they are getting far more than they expected,” said Greenspan, 83, who left the Fed in January 2006 after almost two decades at the helm and has returned to his former role as a private economic forecaster.

With the expansion in market liquidity, “you begin to see, as we are seeing today, a very significant rise in the availability of money,” Greenspan said. As markets improve, “it’s very easy to see that it’s going to continue for an indefinite period,” he said.

Prices Fell

U.S. home prices fell the most on record during the first quarter from the prior year as banks sold seized homes and foreclosures persisted at a high rate in California and Florida. The median U.S. housing price fell 14 percent during the quarter to $169,000 year-over-year, the National Association of Realtors said earlier today.

U.S. banks held $26.6 billion of repossessed real estate at the end of 2008, more than doubling from a year earlier, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in Washington.

Greenspan’s decisions as a central banker have come under scrutiny in recent years after the fall in home prices triggered a collapse in mortgage financing and other credit.

Under Greenspan’s leadership, the Fed left the overnight lending rate between banks at 1 percent from June 2003 until June 2004. Regional Fed presidents such as Gary Stern of Minneapolis and Janet Yellen of San Francisco have publicly questioned the Fed’s hands-off approach toward asset bubbles like the one that emerged in house prices during Greenspan’s tenure.

Kept Rates Low

Former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder, Stanford University professor John Taylor and other economists say Greenspan’s approach of keeping rates low for an extended period helped to foster the housing bubble.

“I’ve always argued going back many decades that you do not capitalize a piece of real estate with overnight interest rates,” the former chairman said today in response to an audience question.

The housing market is instead fueled by a decline in long- term interest rates, which started a full year before the Fed began cutting the federal funds rate, Greenspan said.

“I think there is a recalibration of financial history that I find very puzzling,” he said.

Referring to his critics, he said, “I can say that I respectfully disagree. They’re wrong.”

JPMorgan Sees Potential for US, Asian Stock Rise

Buy Stocks While Valuations are Attractive: Strategist

Foreign investors, after a six-month drought, have been sending billions of dollars back to Asia, a trend some expect to continue on hopes China will lead the region out of the global recession.

"Our confidence in China's market is getting stronger and stronger. China's domestic consumption has been picking up since March," said Frank Gong, chief China strategist of the U.S. firm.

"Chinese consumers dared to buy properties and cars when people in other countries were tightening their spending amid the global economic slowdown," Gong said. "If China's GDP growth hits 10 percent in Q2 and in Q3, as investors are expecting, its stock market should be okay."

Taiwan stocks, among the world's top performing markets along with China so far this year, received an upgrade from JPMorgan, which predicted the main index will finish this year at 8,000 points, up from 6,000 previously forecast, partly due to improving ties between Taiwan and China.

On Wednesday, Taiwan shares ended up 0.82 percent at 6,485.14 points, hovering near eight-month highs, after the island announced new regulations for Chinese to invest in the island.

JPMorgan had overweight ratings on shares of Chinatrust Financial, Yuanta Financial and technology shares like Acer, TSMC, smartphone maker HTC and Mediatek.

Copyright 2009 Reuters.

Corporate woes rise as Asia reels from crisis: IMF

WASHINGTON (AFP) - - The global financial crisis is taking an increasing toll on Asia's corporate sector with the region's economies now among the world's hardest hit, a senior IMF official warned Tuesday.

"Corporate risks are rising and market indicators are flashing warning signs," IMF deputy managing director Takatoshi Kato said.

"There are signs that even the best Asian corporate 'names' are being rationed out of financial markets and are considering approaching their government for direct assistance," he told the annual meeting of the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, a regional think tank, in Washington.

Large Asian firms, like their US counterparts, entered the crisis with strong balance sheets and when the demand shock hit, they faced little immediate pressure to scale back their activities or cut costs, he said.

"However, liquidity positions have since dwindled."

Kato said the global economic downturn is hitting Asia more severely than other regions with fourth quarter data showing a decline in output of nearly 15 percent in Asia, excluding China and India.

Many small and medium-sized enterprises, he said, were also suffocating under the weight of the global crisis, which stemmed from a US home mortgage meltdown that triggered financial turmoil and slammed the brakes on growth.

The firms borrowed heavily during the previous decade to expand their activities as suppliers to larger manufacturing groups but with the onset of the crisis, banks immediately started to rein in lending to these firms, Kato said.

Bad corporate loans were also expected to taint bank balance sheets in Asia.

"The feedback loop between the financial and real sectors is expected to play out," Kato said.

"Given the likely prolonged nature of the downturn, non-performing loans are likely to rise. This will feed into bank balance sheets."

Kato said large Asian corporations would need to further cut production if the credit crunch combined with a sharp fall in demand put healthy companies into trouble and scuttled profits.

Predicting that the region could see a wave of consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, he said firms were only now beginning to adjust employment levels.

"In the near-term, the process may prove quite painful, particularly if large job losses are involved," he said.

"Already, unemployment has started to climb across the region and potentially high social costs from this downturn are a looming threat."

Kato said that as financial activity worldwide shrunk, Asia's financial centers "have also been broadsided."

Citing Hong Kong, the special administration region of China, he said its financial system was "contracting," particularly in areas such as asset management and brokerage services.

In Singapore, lending to non-bank customers has been contracting recently in the Asian Dollar Market, he said.

In Japan, stricter lending standards, wider risk spreads, and the significant stock market declines have tightened financial conditions, he said.

Kato also noted that private investment in most Asian countries had slowed significantly and warned about a slowdown in private consumption as well.

"Although private consumption so far has shown relative resilience, falling incomes and tighter financial conditions foreshadow a slowdown ahead."

On the whole, Kato said the current recession in the region promised to be "deeper and more prolonged" compared to previous cycles.

The Best Psychological Test of All

by Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D.

In a recent post, I suggested that we may lose discipline in trading for the right reasons, not wrong ones. We naturally gravitate toward the intersection of our values, our abilities, and our skills: those arenas in which we can do good and do well. If we find ourselves veering from what we tell ourselves we *should* be doing, the answer may not be to "discipline" ourselves to our original path. Rather, it makes sense to view the loss of discipline as information and identify what it might be that we're moving *toward*.

But how can we know if we're truly operating in our ideal niches, whether in trading, romance, or careers? It turns out that there is a very simple psychological test that can provide this information.

Keep a journal of your emotional experience: how you are feeling at the end of your mornings, afternoons, and evenings. Make particular note of the number of occasions in which you were totally absorbed in what you were doing--so much so that you lost your sense of time passing and lost your awareness of yourself. Also make note of occasions in which you felt frustrated for any reason.

The result of your psychological test is simply the ratio of occasions in which you are absorbed to occasions in which you are frustrated. It turns out that highly creative, productive, and successful individuals have an unusually high ratio.

The reason for this is that these successful people are operating at that nexus of interests, talents, and skills. Because they're doing what they love and have the resources to do it well, they become wholly absorbed in their experience. This is the "flow" state described by Mihalyi Csikszentmihalyi: a pleasurable, altered state of consciousness, in which we feel at one with our situation.

During frustration, on the other hand, we are either doing something that doesn't interest us or something for which our skills and talents are poorly matched for the demands of the task. If task demands are too easy, we become frustrated with boredom. If task demands are excessive, we become frustrated by our inadequacies. Frustration divides subject and object; in flow, those are joined. It's the difference between a highly satisfying sexual experience and a highly unsatisfying one.

If you're operating in your proper niche, you will be experiencing a state of flow on a regular basis. You will be doing what you do well, and you will love and value what you're doing. That is true for the job you're in, the marriage you're in, and the trades you're in. That psychological test applies to most of life's arenas.

Too often, we justify frustration today by the vague hope of fulfillment tomorrow. In my book, I mentioned the Kansas bar near my home where a neon sign promised "Free Beer Tomorrow". Of course, naive patrons who returned the next day were always told that the free beer was, indeed, tomorrow.

In the end, life is a succession of situations: careers you're in, people you know, relationships you enter, markets you trade. You are your situation: you always experience the fit--or lack of fit--between who you are and what you're doing. Successful people find good fits in life: their situations bring flow. Taking your emotional temperature at the end of trading days--assessing your periods of flow and frustration--will tell you a great deal as to whether or not you're in the right markets, with the right methods, in the right timeframes, with the right skills.

Ten Lessons I Have Learned in Working With Traders

by Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D.

When I sat down to write this article, I thought it would be challenging—but useful—to distill over 20 years of trading experience—and 25 years of specializing in brief therapy—into ten lessons that I have learned while working with traders (including myself!). In that time, I’ve written two books on trading and worked with dozens of professional traders at a proprietary trading firm. What has this taught me? Let’s break it down:

1. Trading affects psychology as much as psychology affects trading – This was really the motivating factor behind my writing the new book. Many traders experience stress and frustration because they are trading poorly and lack a true edge in the marketplace. Working on your emotions will be of limited help if you are putting your money at risk and don’t truly have an edge.

2. Emotional disruption is present even among the most successful traders – A trading method that produces 60% winners will experience four consecutive losses 2-3% of the time and as much time in flat performance as in an uptrending P/L curve. Strings of events (including losers) occur more often by chance than traders are prepared for.

3. Winning disrupts the trader’s emotions as much as losing – We are disrupted when we experience events outside our expectation. The method that is 60% accurate will experience four consecutive winners about 13% of the time. Traders are just as susceptible to overconfidence during profitable runs as underconfidence during strings of losers.

4. Size kills – The surest path toward emotional damage is to trade size that is too large for one’s portfolio. We experience P/L in relation to our portfolio value. When we trade too large, we create exaggerated swings of winning and losing, which in turn create exaggerated emotional swings.

5. Training is the path to expertise – Think of every performance field out there—sports, music, chess, acting—and you will find that practice builds skills. Trading, in some ways, is harder than other performance fields because there are no college teams or minor leagues for development. From day one, we’re up against the pros. Without training and practice, we will lack the skills to survive such competition.

6. Successful traders possess rich mental maps - All successful trading boils down to pattern recognition and the development of mental maps that help us translate our perceptions of patterns into concrete trading behaviors. Without such mental maps, traders become lost in complexity.

7. Markets change – Patterns of volatility and trending are always shifting, and they change across multiple time frames. Because of this, no single trading method will be successful across the board for a given market. The successful trader not only masters markets, but masters the changes in those markets.

8. Even the best traders have periods of drawdown – As markets change, the best traders go through a process of relearning. The ones who succeed are the ones who save their money during the good times so that they can financially survive the lean periods.

9. The market you’re in counts as much toward performance as your trading method – Some markets are more volatile and trendy than others; some have more distinct patterns than others. Finding the right fit between trader, trading method, and market is key.

10. Execution and trade management count – A surprising degree of long-term trading success comes from getting good prices on entry and exit. The single best predictor of trading failure is when the average P/L of losing trades exceeds the average P/L of winners.

Well, I’ve already hit ten and I have at least ten more I could jot down. Number 11 would be that successful performance mentors have content expertise in their particular domain. What I mean by that is that teachers of concert musicians themselves have experience as musicians; basketball coaches invariably have played the sport themselves. You learn trading by seeing your mentor trade and by having your mentor observe your trading. The right mentorship goes a long way toward shortening learning curves.

Figure it out: what proportion of baseball players, golfers, actresses, chess players, singers, or bicyclists can make a consistent living from their performance activities? Is trading really so much easier than those activities? The stark reality is that expertise in any performance field is the exception, not the rule, requiring dedicated practice and training. If you are emotionally prepared for the learning curve—and excited by the challenge—you are well ahead of the game. Start with finding the Three M’s: right methods, markets, and mentors. Those are the foundation of success, upon which you build skills and experience. Enjoy the journey!

Money Management

by Bennett McDowell

Money management in trading involves specialized techniques combined with your own personal judgment. Failure to adhere to a sound money management program can leave you subject to a deadly “Risk-Of-Ruin” exposure and most probable equity bust.

With this in mind, here are a few essential money management techniques that can make a big difference for your bottom line:

1.Always Use Stops
2.Use A Proven And Tested Methodology For Calculating Stops Rather Than An Arbitrary Figure
3.Use A Proven And Tested Trading System
4.Pay Close Attention To Your “Trade Size” For Each Trade And Be Sure That You Take Into Consideration The “2% Risk Rules”
5.Never Exceed A 2% Risk (Of Your Trading Account Size) On Any Given Trade
6.Never Trade More Than A 2% Risk (Of Your Trading Account Size) In Any Given Sector
7.Never Exceed A 6% Risk (Of Your Trading Account Size) Over-All At Any Given Time
8.Always Trade With “Risk Capital” (Money You Can Afford To Lose)
9.Never Trade With Borrowed Money
10. Use “Scaling” Out Of Positions To Boost Your Percentages
11. In Most Cases, Be Sure Your Trading Account Size Is Not Greater Than 10% Of Your Total Net Worth
12. Develop “The Trader’s Mindset”

When you hear of someone making a huge killing in the market on a relatively small or average trading account, you can bet the trader was not using sound money management.

They more than likely exposed their trading account to obscene risk due to an abnormally large “Trade Size.” The trader (or gambler) may have just gotten lucky and experienced a profit windfall. By trading in this manner, it’s just a matter of time before huge losses dwarf the wins, and the trader (or gambler) is devastated emotionally and financially.

Calculating Proper “Trade Size”

If you are trading the exact same number of shares or contracts on every trade, then you may not be calculating the proper “Trade Size” for your own personal risk tolerance. “Trade Size” can vary from trade to trade because your entries, stops, and account size are constantly changing variables.
In order to implement a money management program to help reduce your risk exposure, the first step is for you to fully believe that you need this sort of program. Usually this belief comes from a few large losses that have caused the kind of psychological pain that makes you want to change. This kind of experience can enable you to see how improper “Trade Size” and lack of discipline can sabotage your trading results.

Novice traders tend to focus on the trade outcome as only winning and therefore do not think about risk. Professional traders focus on the risk and take the trade based on their proven trading system indicating a favorable outcome. Thus, the psychology behind “Trade Size” begins when you believe and acknowledge that each trade’s outcome is unknown when entering the trade. Believing this makes you ask yourself, “…how much can I afford to lose on this trade?”

Once you’ve answered this question (based on your money management rules), you’ll either want to adjust your “Trade Size” or tighten your stop-loss before entering the trade. In most situations, the best method is to adjust your “Trade Size” and set your stop-loss based on market dynamics.

During “Draw-Down” periods, risk control becomes very important and since experienced traders test their trading systems, they have an idea of how many consecutive losses in a row can occur. Taking this information into account, allows you to further determine the appropriate risk percentage to allow for each trade.

Not Every Trade Will Be A Winner

Given enough time, even the best trading systems will only be right about 60% of the time. That means 40% of the time you will be wrong and have losing trades. For every 10 trades, you will lose an average of 4 times. Even trading systems or certain trading set ups with higher rates of return nearing 80% usually “fall-back” to a realistic 60% return when actually traded.

The reason for this “fall-back” is that human beings trade trading systems. And when humans get involved, the rates of return on most systems are lowered. Why? Because the very nature of being human is that we make mistakes, and are to emotional trading errors. That’s what the reality is and what research indicates.

So, if you’re losing 40% of the time then you need to control risk! This can be done through implementing stops and controlling “Trade Size”. We never really know which trades will be successful. As a result, we have to control risk on every trade regardless of how profitable we think the trade will be. If our winning trades are higher than our losing trades, we can do very well with a 60% trading system win to loss ratio. In fact with effective risk control, we can sustain multiple losses without devastation to our trading account and our emotions.

Some folks can start and end their trading careers in just one month! By not controlling risk and by using improper “Trade Size” a trader can go broke in no time. It usually happens like this; they begin trading, get five losses in a row, don’t use proper “Trade Size” and don’t cut their losses soon enough. After five substantial losses in a row, their trading capital is now too low to continue trading. It can happen that quickly!

“The Trader’s Mindset”

Equally important as controlling risk is having confidence in your trading system. You must understand that even with a tested and profitable system, it is possible to have a losing streak of five losses in a row. This is called “Draw-Down”. Knowing this eventuality can prepare and encourage you to control risk and not abandon your trading system when “Draw-Down” occurs.

This confidence is an important psychological ingredient in “The Trader’s Mindset”, which is the mindset you need to develop to be consistently profitable. You are striving for a balanced growth in your trading equity curve over time. When you see that steady balanced growth then you’ll know you’ve developed “The Trader’s Mindset”.

The “2% Per Trade Risk Rule”

The “2% Per Trade Risk Rule” will keep you out of trouble provided your trading system can produce 55% or above win to loss ratio with an average win of at least 1.6 to 1.0 meaning wins are 60% larger than losses. So, for every dollar you lose when you have a losing trade, your winning trades produce a dollar and sixty cents.

Assuming the above, we can then proceed to calculate risk. The “2% Per Trade Risk Rule” is calculated by knowing your trade entry price and your initial stop loss exit price. The difference between the two gives you a “Dollar & Cents” number that when multiplied by your “Trade Size” (shares or contracts) will give you the dollar loss if you are stopped out.

That “Dollar & Cents” loss must be no larger than two percent of the equity in your trading account. It has nothing to do with leverage. In fact, you can use leverage and still stay within a two percent risk of equity in your trading account. Remember the two percent risk must include commissions and if possible slippage, if you can determine that.

If you do not add-on to a current position, but your stop moves up along with your trade, then you are locking in profits. When you lock in profits with a new trailing stop, your risk on this profitable trade is no longer 2%. Thus, you may now place additional trades. So, multiple positions can be possible.

The “2% Per Sector Risk Rule”

Since the stock market is comprised of many different sectors, it is important that you use the “2% Per Sector Risk Rule”. This rule allows you to risk 2% per sector up to a total risk of 6% maintaining proper diversification in your trading account.

For example, the stock MSFT (which is Microsoft) is a technology company in the technology sector. If you want to take another trade while you are in a Microsoft trade, you will want to select a different sector of the market, such as the chemical sector or the banking sector. This same rule applies to Options and Futures. In Futures, trade a different commodity. Using this rule you will be automatically diversified and won’t be likely to take a huge hit if one sector of the market collapses.

Also note that if your risk on a given trade in one sector is only one percent, you may take additional trades in that sector until you reach a total of two percent.

The “6% Over All Risk Rule”

You should not exceed six percent over-all between all sectors. In other words, the most or total trading account portfolio risk you should have at any given time should not exceed six percent. Using this technique will keep your risk in proportion to your trading account size at all times.

“Risk Capital” – Funding Your Trading Account

It is alarming that many traders use either borrowed money or money they really cannot afford to lose. This will set you up for failure because you are subject to the market’s manipulation which exploits your emotional need for a positive outcome on every trade.

In simpler terms, you could be nervous about losing. Therefore each stop out would create more anxiety to a point where you may not emotionally be able to exit a trade and take a loss. Instead you are hoping the trade will come back. It takes both responsibility and discipline to accept a trading loss and get out when your stop tells you to.

If you do not currently have sufficient risk capital to trade, begin “Paper Trading” to improve your skills while you are saving enough risk capital to begin trading with real money. This way when you are ready to trade with real money you will have practiced your trading skills and will have a greater opportunity to be consistently profitable.

“Scaling” Out Of Trades

“Scaling” out of trades can be incorporated into your money management game plan since it is a component of risk control. The psychology behind “Scaling” out is to reduce stress by quickly locking in a profit, which should also help you stay in trends longer with any remaining positions.

This is a great technique that can convert some losing trades into profitable ones, reduce stress, and increase your bottom line! I’m a big advocate of reducing stress while you’re in a trade. Then you’ll be able to focus on the trade and not be subject to emotions such as fear and greed. Properly “Scaling” out of positions is a win-win technique by making you more profitable and by reducing the stress.

In order to “Scale” out of trades your initial “Trade Size” must be large enough so you can reap the benefits of “Scaling.” The technique is applicable for both long and short positions, and for all types of markets like Futures, Stocks, Indexes, Options, etc. The initial position must be large enough to enable you to cover your profitable trade in increments without incurring additional risk from a large opening position. Remember, we want less stress, not more!

Your initial “Trade Size” should follow the “2% Per Trade Risk Rule”. The key is to initiate a large enough “Trade Size” while not risking more than 2% on entering the trade.

There are two ways to do this. One way is to find a market that you can initiate a large enough “Trade Size” with your current trading account based on a 2% risk if this initial position is stopped out. The other way, is to add additional trading capital to your trading account that will allow for a larger position because 2% of a larger account allows for a larger “Trade Size.”

There is even another way, and that is to use the leverage of Options, but you must be familiar with Options, their “Time Value” decay, delta, etc. Using Options would be considered a specialty or advanced technique, and if you are not familiar with them, use caution since this method could lead to increasing your stress!

If you’re stopped out before having a chance to “Scale” out, your loss would only be 2% which is acceptable from a “Risk-Of-Ruin” stand point. If on the other hand your trade is profitable you can cover part of your position and liquidate enough contracts so that if you are still stopped out, you make a small profit! If the trade becomes even more profitable, then you may want to liquate additional contracts to lock in more profit.

By trading only one or two contracts you can’t “Scale” out of positions well. This clearly illustrates how larger trading accounts have an advantage over smaller ones! Also, some markets are more expensive than others, so the cost of a trade will determine “Trade Size.”

In choosing a market, liquidity is crucial. Make sure there is sufficient market liquidity to execute “Scaling” out of positions in a meaningful way. Poor fills due to poor liquidity can adversely affect this “Scaling” out technique.

Actual Money Management Examples

Example A: The “2% Risk Rule

Trading Account Size: $ 25,000
2% of $ 25,000 (Trading Account Size) = $ 500
(Assuming no slippage in this example)

Thus on any given trade you should risk no more than $500 which includes commission and slippage.

Example B: Using The “2% Per Trade Risk Rule” In The Market Place

Trading Account Size: $25,000
2% Risk Allowance: $500
MSFT Current Value: $60.00 Per Share
MSFT Initial Stop: $58.50 Per Share
Difference Between Entry & Stop: $1.50
Commission: $ 80.00 Round Trip
Proper “Trade Size”: 280 Shares

Your trading system says to go long now at $ 60.00 per share. Your initial stop loss is at $ 58.50 and the difference between your entry at $ 60.00 and your initial stop loss at $58.50 is $ 1.50 per share.

How many shares (“Trade Size”) can you buy when your risk is $ 1.50 per share and your two percent account risk is $ 500.00? The answer is: $ 500.00 minus $ 80.00 (commissions) = $ 420.00. Then, $ 420.00 divided by $ 1.50 (difference between entry and stop amount) = 280 shares.

Do not buy more than 280 shares of the stock MSFT to maintain proper risk control and obey the “2% Per Trade Risk Rule.” If you trade Futures contracts or Options contracts, calculate your “Trade Size” the same way. Note that your “Trade Size” may be capped by the margin allowances for Futures traders and for Stock traders.

This E-mini intraday 1 minute chart illustrates how you can “Scale” out of a position but still remain in the trend.

Money Management Conclusion

It is important to realize that you must be aware of the risks in trading the financial markets and live in full awareness. Let your positive beliefs lead you to take the action necessary to succeed.

For traders to blindly enter the markets and trade simply because they are thinking positive thoughts is to ignore the full spectrum of what is possible. On the other hand, to live in the fear of only losing will cause you to trade the financial markets with fear, anxiety, negativity and aggression which are equally destructive. Instead, acknowledge both sides of the coin, the good and the bad. React to market activity with full-awareness and pay close attention towards risk control then you will create a positive reality with a feeling of abundance and good will.

By acknowledging the good and the bad (the reality) and by fine tuning your money management system you are on your way to greater prosperity.

Ships Tread Water, Waiting for Cargo

The New York Times, 12 May 2009, KEITH BRADSHER

SINGAPORE — To go out in a small boat along Singapore’s coast now is to feel like a mouse tiptoeing through an endless herd of slumbering elephants.

One of the largest fleets of ships ever gathered idles here just outside one of the world’s busiest ports, marooned by the receding tide of global trade. There may be tentative signs of economic recovery in spots around the globe, but few here.

Hundreds of cargo ships — some up to 300,000 tons, with many weighing more than the entire 130-ship Spanish Armada — seem to perch on top of the water rather than in it, their red rudders and bulbous noses, submerged when the vessels are loaded, sticking a dozen feet out of the water.

So many ships have congregated here — 735, according to AIS Live tracking service of Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay Research, a ship tracking service based in London — that shipping lines are becoming concerned about near misses and collisions in one of the world’s most congested waterways, the Strait of Malacca, which separates Malaysia and Singapore from Indonesia.

The root of the problem lies in an unusually steep slump in global trade, confirmed by trade statistics announced on Tuesday.

China said that its exports nose-dived 22.6 percent in April from a year earlier, while the Philippines said that its exports in March were down 30.9 percent from a year earlier. The United States announced on Tuesday that its exports had declined 2.4 percent in March.

“The March 2009 trade data reiterates the current challenges in our global economy,” said Ron Kirk, the United States trade representative.

More worrisome, despite some positive signs like a Wall Street rally and slower job losses in the United States, is that the current level of trade does not suggest a recovery soon, many in the shipping business say.

“A lot of the orders for the retail season are being placed now, and compared to recent years, they are weak,” said Chris Woodward, the vice president for container services at Ryder System, the big logistics company.

Western consumers still adjusting to losses in value of their stocks and homes are in little mood to start spending again on nonessential imports, said Joshua Felman, the assistant director of the Asia and Pacific division of the International Monetary Fund. “For trade to pick up, demand has to pick up,” he said. “It’s very difficult to see that happening any time soon.”

So badly battered is the shipping industry that the daily rate to charter a large bulk freighter suitable for carrying, say, iron ore, plummeted from close to $300,000 last summer to a low of $10,000 early this year, according to H. Clarkson & Company, a London ship brokerage.

The rate has rebounded to nearly $25,000 in the last several weeks, and some bulk carriers have left Singapore. But ship owners say this recovery may be short-lived because it mostly reflects a rush by Chinese steel makers to import iron ore before a possible price increase next month.

Container shipping is also showing faint signs of revival, but remains deeply depressed. And more empty tankers are showing up here.

The cost of shipping a 40-foot steel container full of merchandise from southern China to northern Europe tumbled from $1,400 plus fuel charges a year ago to as little as $150 early this year, before rebounding to around $300, which is still below the cost of providing the service, said Neil Dekker, a container industry forecaster at Drewry Shipping Consultants in London.

Eight small companies in the industry have gone bankrupt in the last year and at least one of the major carriers is likely to fail this year, he said.

Vessels have flocked to Singapore because it has few storms, excellent ship repair teams, cheap fuel from its own refinery and, most important, proximity to Asian ports that might eventually have cargo to ship.

The gathering of so many freighters “is extraordinary,” said Christopher Pãlsson, a senior consultant at Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay Research, a ship tracking service based in London. “We have probably not witnessed anything like this since the early 1980s,” during the last big bust in the global shipping industry.

The world’s fleet has nearly doubled since the early 1980s, so the tonnage of vessels in and around Singapore’s waters this spring may be the highest ever, he said, cautioning that detailed worldwide ship tracking data has been available only for the last five years.

These vessels total more than 41 million tons, according to the AIS Live tracking service. That is nearly equal to the entire world’s merchant fleet at the end of World War I, and represents almost 4 percent of the world’s fleet today.

Investment trusts have poured billions of dollars over the last five years into buying ships and leasing them for a year at a time to shipping lines. As the leases expire and many of these vessels are returned, losses will be heavy at these trusts and the mainly European banks that lent to them, said Stephen Fletcher, the commercial director for AXS Marine, a consulting firm based in Paris.

In previous shipping downturns, vessels anchored for months at a time in Norwegian fjords and other cold-weather locations. But stringent environmental regulations in practically every cold-weather country are forcing idle ships to warmer anchorages.

But that raises security concerns. Plants grow much faster on the undersides of vessels in warm water. “You end up with the hanging gardens of Babylon on the bottom and that affects your speed,” said Tim Huxley, the chief executive of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport, a shipping line based in Hong Kong.

One of the company’s freighters became so overgrown that it was barely able to outrun pirates off Somalia recently, Mr. Huxley said. The freighter escaped with 91 bullet holes in it.

Another of the company’s freighters close to Singapore was hit last December by a chemical tanker that could not make a tight enough turn in a crowded anchorage; neither vessel was seriously damaged.

Capt. M. Segar, the group director for Singapore’s port, said in a written reply to questions that many vessels were staying just outside the port’s limits, where they do not have to pay port fees.

Singapore has complained to the countries of registry about 10 to 15 ships that have anchored in sea lanes in violation of international rules in the last two weeks, Captain Segar said.

Ships are anchoring at other ports around the world, too. There were 150 vessels in and around the Straits of Gibraltar on Monday, and 300 around Rotterdam, the Netherlands, according to the AIS Live tracking service.

But Singapore, close to Asian markets, has attracted far more.

“It is a sign of the times,” said AIS Martin Stopford, the managing director of Clarkson Research Service in London, “that Asia is the place you want to hang around this time in case things turn around.”

Prices creep up after property's long dive

Kalpana Rashiwala
Business Times Singapore

Developers test waters at some projects by cutting back on discounts

(SINGAPORE) Some developers have quietly started raising prices a notch as they test waters after strong sales volumes seen in the first quarter.

Price adjustments are often made by reducing discount levels. On a project average basis, the effective prices for some developments may have gone up between 2 and 5 per cent compared with levels earlier this year, according to developers and property consultants.

'Developers aren't raising prices overnight. Prices are being adjusted only after clear buying momentum has set in for a project. If you look at the first and last units sold in the project, the price difference could be, say, 10 per cent; but if you look on a project average basis, the price increase would be less than 5 per cent,' says Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng.

The recent stock market rally has generated its share of positive sentiment. Even so, property agents say that prices of only the better-selling units have been raised in some projects, while the others have seen more widespread rises. 'Developers are careful; if they push up prices too fast, potential buyers may start looking at other projects,' one agent said.

The recent price adjustments have to be viewed against the significant price declines before that, seasoned players point out. For instance, Q1 2009 prices of mass-market condos were about 10 per cent off the peak levels in late 2007/early 2008, while for luxury condos, the price decline was steeper, at around 30-40 per cent.

DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah says that developers started to inch up prices in April and May from Q1 levels. 'In the secondary market, sellers have been more aggressive; some are asking about 5 to 10 per cent more than in Q1,' she added.

Property giant Far East Organization's residential projects such as the Mi Casa condo in Choa Chu Kang, The Lakeshore in Jurong, Hillview Regency in Bukit Batok, Floridian at Bukit Timah Road (non-premium units), and Vida at Peck Hay Road are among those that have seen slight price gains lately.

Rival City Developments is also said to have incrementally raised prices for The Arte at Thomson as sales progressed briskly. The developer has sold more than 250 units since it previewed the mid-end project in March.

BT understands that prices of the remaining 80-plus units have been adjusted upwards slightly this week. The average price is now about $900 psf and the freehold project includes a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom units.

Bukit Sembawang is also said to have introduced a single-digit per cent price hike for later units (apartments) at The Verdure at Holland Road after the initial batch of units were sold.

UOL Group and Kheng Leong are also understood to have upped prices selectively - for better-selling units - at Double Bay Residences in Simei.

A major developer said: 'Demand is better now. People are prepared to come to the negotiating table and not baulk at prices, compared with last year when it was very difficult to even get buyers to sit down. I think there's a sense that the worst is over.'

He says that the quantum of price appreciation that a developer can achieve in the current market will hinge on a project's location, the nature of the development and the profile of its buyers. 'For instance, for a prime district project with a lot of small units costing $1-2 million each, you can adjust prices a bit more, especially if you have a fair number of foreign buyers,' according to the developer. 'Mainland Chinese buyers are more optimistic, and can accept price hikes better as they have seen an upturn in their own property market,' he added.

Mr Tan says that there's currently a 'sweet spot' in the Singapore market for projects priced below $1,000 psf and on a lump-sum basis costing $1 million to $1.2 million per unit (for three-bedroom units) and $800,000 and below (for two-bedroom units). Their prices can take a sub-10 per cent increase without affordability being seriously dented.

Mr Tan argues that a small price increase will not generally price buyers out of the market or send them to the sidelines again - 'especially if they think the worst is over and don't want to miss the boat'.

'Even if the view is that we're not at the bottom yet, there seems to be a greater sense of price stability now. The thinking now is that if prices drop a further 5 or 10 per cent, can I live with it? Three months ago, there seemed to be no bottom,' Mr Tan recalls.

Agreeing, CB Richard Ellis executive director (residential) Joseph Tan says: 'Once people are more confident, they can accept the fact that price may be higher, but in an improving situation. If I believe the market has bottomed, the closer I buy to the bottom, the better it is for me. That sort of thinking is also being fuelled by the stock market rally; traditionally the residential property market lags the stock market by three to six months.'

Goldman sees S'pore home prices rising in 2010

Kalpana Rashiwala
Business Times Singapore

It reverses earlier forecast of 10% slide next year, upgrades CDL to 'buy'

(SINGAPORE) Goldman Sachs is now projecting a 5 per cent gain in Singapore private home prices next year, reversing its previous forecast of a 10 per cent fall in 2010. It has also upgraded City Developments, which it terms 'the Singapore residential bellwether', to a 'buy' rating from 'sell' previously.

'The recent pick-up of transaction volumes in the primary residential market is a harbinger of price stabilisation being just around the corner, in our view,' the US bank said in a report dated May 12.

It expects the residential property sector to stabilise by end-2009, ahead of the office and retail sectors, which it sees stabilising around the end of next year.

Goldman Sachs sees the average luxury residential capital value sliding some 38 per cent for the whole of 2009, on top of last year's 36 per cent drop, and the average islandwide 99-year leasehold residential capital value easing 13 per cent in 2009, similar to the 12 per cent fall last year. Much of these price declines have already taken place year to date, and Goldman Sachs sees price stability setting in by year-end.

The 5 per cent residential price increase projection for 2010 will be supported by expected healthy, above-consensus take-up activity that will gradually draw down on supply.

'Firmness witnessed in the mass end of the segment is gradually filtering up to the mid-end segments, though investors are still harbouring concerns over sustainability of demand. What may not be so apparent is the relative wealth of HDB owners,' said the report.

'We expect the pick-up in transaction volumes witnessed over the past three months to continue, driven by HDB upgrader demand in the mass end of the market as affordability has improved,' it added.

'While we acknowledge that there are still overhangs (eg deferred payment scheme defaults) weighing down on the broader sector, we think the risk/reward trade-off in the Singapore residential market is currently favourable,' the report said.

With residential cycles tending to be shorter than commercial ones, Goldman Sachs expects commercial property to underperform when recovery takes place eventually. It also continues to be relatively more cautious about the retail and office segments given the challenges that are likely to affect businesses and consumers over the near term.

'Unlike in residential, where (sales) take-up has been healthy, leasing and transaction activity in the commercial space continues to be weak,' the report noted.

'On the basis that a residential property recovery is in the works, we turn more constructive on the Singapore developers as we see the residential sector leading the property sector recovery. We think property investors (Reits) mainly exposed to commercial real estate will see trends deteriorating into 2010 and are likely to underperform when the eventual recovery does take place.'

In addition to upgrading CDL to 'buy', Goldman Sachs has upgraded Wing Tai to 'neutral' from 'sell' and reiterated its 'conviction buy' for CapitaLand for their exposure to the Singapore residential sector. For CapitaLand, it said that maiden profits from The Seafront and Orchard Residences condos expected this year should help shelter the stock from potential writedowns.

Goldman downgraded CapitaCommercial Trust to 'neutral' from 'buy' and Suntec Reit to 'sell' from 'buy'. It kept its 'sell' rating for Keppel Land, which has substantial exposure to the Singapore office market.

Tuesday, 12 May 2009

Is history repeating itself? A H1N1 Depression-era nosedive

With stocks jumping 35 percent in less than two months, you can't help but ask the question: Is history repeating itself?


AP
Crowds panic in the Wall Street district of Manhattan due to the heavy trading on the stock market in New York City on Oct. 24, 1929.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Investors who want the stock market to go up had better hope not.

The market's moves after the 1929 market crash serve as a scary template that investors hope the current market won't follow.

At that time, stocks plunged about 48 percent in just two months following the Oct. 29 crash, only to surge 48 percent in the next six months.

But the next two years saw a crushing drop in the Dow Jones industrial average—which at that time was trading off a Sept. 3, 1929 high of 381.17—that saw the index lose 86 percent from the high of the rally.

So could the same thing happen again?

While most market pros believe some snapback from the current rally is probable and even desirable, a return to a Depression-era nosedive in stocks is not.

"I would say at this point it seems unlikely," says Richard Sparks, senior analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati. "It doesn't look like any of the really bad things out there that exist as potential worries could blow up in our face and cause us to have a very sharp downturn."

Monday, 11 May 2009

Slowdown ease in some places

PARIS - THE downturn in some recession-hit countries is easing despite ongoing signs of a strong slowdown, the OECD grouping of leading economies said in a report on Monday.

'Composite leading indicators continue to indicate a strong slowdown in the OECD area but the pace of the deterioration is easing,' the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said.

The indicators assessed by the OECD in major member countries 'continue to point to deterioration in the business cycle, but at a decreasing rate,' it said.

The OECD said its key CLI economic indicator decreased by 0.1 point in March and was down 9.5 points since the same month last year.

The body's indicators 'for March 2009 continue to point to a strong slowdown in the OECD,' which covers 30 big economies.

'However France, Italy and the United Kingdom are showing tentative signs of, at least, a pause in the economic slowdown,' it added, pointing to a 'possible trough' in these economies.

The indicator for the United States fell 0.6 points in March and 11.8 since March 2008. In the eurozone the index was down 7.9 points on the year, but rose 0.2 points in March on a monthly basis.

The indicator rose in recession-hit Britain and Italy and in France and China, which is not an OECD member.

'With the exception of China, where signs of a pause have also emerged, major non-OECD economies still face deteriorating conditions,' the report said. -- AFP

Ridiculous Ideas That Made People Millions

Katie Adams

Have you ever watched an infomercial or seen an item in a department store and thought "I could have thought of that!" Have you wished you had invested money early in a blockbuster invention? Learn the stories behind some (seemingly) ridiculous ideas that have made inventors and investors very wealthy, and find out what you, as a potential investor, should look for and consider before putting up capital for a potential funding opportunity.

The Koosh Ball
You've may have never heard of Scott Stillinger but somewhere in your home or office you probably have one of his inventions – the Koosh ball, which made millions of dollars. Stillinger came up with the idea for the Koosh ball when he tied rubber bands together to create a smaller, easier-to-catch ball for his young children in 1987. He founded OddzOn Products Inc. to distribute the small, simple toy, and within just 12 months it was flying off of store shelves as that year's hottest Christmas gift.

The company expanded, and in 1994 Stillinger sold OddzOn to toy manufacturer Russ Berrie and Company Inc., which in turn was bought by toy behemoth Hasbro (NYSE:HAS) in 1997 for more $100 million

. And it all happened a mere 10 years after the first ball was created.

Santa Mail
Every year, millions of children around the globe pen letters to Santa and hope for a response. Byron Reese realized the potential in this market. In 2002, he launched "Santa Mail," a service that allows kids to send letters to the North Pole. Parents enclose a small fee of just $9.95, and little Johnny or Jane receives a personalized letter back from the "big man" himself. By 2009, Santa Mail had responded to nearly 300,000 children. At close to $10 a letter, well, you can do the math - needless to say, it was a little idea that has earned Reese a big return.

Lucky Break Wishbones
Are you still a little bitter that, at last year's Thanksgiving dinner, you lost out to your cousin Ned in the annual fight over the lone turkey wishbone? Well, thanks to Ken Ahroni, those days are long over. In 1999, he had something of an epiphany at his family's Thanksgiving dinner table: a family with multiple people would like multiple wishbones. He shuttered his previous consulting business and launched Lucky Break Wishbone Corp. in 2004, in order to sell his one-of-a-kind breakable plastic wishbones. Within two years, the company was generating nearly $1 million in sales through distributors in more than 40 states nationwide.

Antenna Balls
You've seen them; maybe you even sport one on your car. Those ubiquitous, yellow smiley-faced balls perched atop antennas in parking lots nationwide have made Jason Wall a very wealthy man. Inspired in 1997 by a commercial for the fast food chain Jack in the Box, Wall created some antenna ball designs and began selling them locally through auto stores in California in 1998. Within a year, he had earned more than $1.15 million in sales and quickly won major accounts to sell his product through national chains, including Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT).In 2009, the multimillionaire is president and CEO of In-Concept Inc.

Investing in Far-Out Ideas and Inventions
If you can't come up with your own idea - or don't want to put in the time - you can always invest in another inventor's ingenuity. Inventions can come from anywhere and anyone - friends, family members or even coworkers. But before you start writing checks out to just anyone who promises they have "the next BIG idea," there are five key tips to consider:

1. Learn about the industry. If you don't personally know a potential investor in whom to invest, you can learn more about opportunities through industry trade magazines, like Investor's Digest or America's Inventor Magazine, or through organizations like the National Congress of Investor Organizations.

2. Stick to your strengths. Investing in an invention is a risky proposition. That's why it's a good idea to stick to investigating investment opportunities in a field or concept with which you are somewhat familiar. For example, if you are a mother of young children, you will have a keener sense of the needs of children and parents than someone without children. Use your background, interests and experience to your advantage when evaluating investment opportunities.

3. Find the right people to back. Sure, your uncle Frank may be utterly convinced that his remote-controlled backyard squirrel zapper is what every home needs, but that shouldn't be enough to get you to open your wallet. Instead, look for inventors who have demonstrated success - people who have multiple patents and success in selling their inventions, either directly to retailers or to larger companies. Successful inventors have the proven ability to secure patents and sell products.

4. Get to know the market and the team. All successful investors research the product and company they're going to help fund first. Do some homework to get to know not only the inventor you are considering backing, but also the market potential for the product and its profitability and evaluate the team the inventor has assembled to bring the product to market. Ask key questions such as:

· What need does the invention satisfy?
· Are there competitors?
· Have similar types of inventions failed in the recent past?
· What is the inventor's time line to get to market?
· What is his or her business and marketing plan to not only sell products but realize a healthy profit margin?
· Are there any other potential patents pending on a similar type of product?

It takes a team of skilled professionals with the right product working in the right market to make your investment realize its potential.
5. Do your financial and legal due diligence. As with any investment, make sure that you know exactly what you're investing in up front. Does the person or organization seeking funding have a sound business plan? What is the current financial status and are there any other debt obligations to which you, as an investor, could be exposed? Are there any other funders, and if so, who are they? Ask for all financial records, business plans and projections; carefully review any documents you're asked to sign; seek professional legal and financial counsel, and be sure you understand any potential risk that you're incurring, including the risk of losing of your investment altogether.

The Bottom Line
Realistically, the odds are stacked against most investors looking to make their fortune by backing an inventor. The U.S. Patent Office notes that, "approximately 2% of patents earn significant dollars for their investors." Still, there are future Koosh balls and Lucky Break Wishbones to be made and profited from. Perhaps with some hard work and careful investing, you too could find a ridiculous idea that gets you laughing all the way to the bank.

Sunday, 10 May 2009

买不起房的男人滚开,别毁了女人一生

叶如烟的博客

刚过去三个多月,我的同学中就有两对夫妻离婚了,而且四人都是我的大学同学。按说,离婚不关别人的事,可是他们都有了孩子,而且孩子还都判给了女方。两位女同学因无力抚养孩子,只好把孩子送给她们的父母抚养。
  
当初在大学校园也都是花前月下卿卿我我海枯石烂的,为何刚结婚几年就离婚了呢?还是那个千古不变的真理:贫贱夫妻百事哀。这两个男生别说高薪有房了,就是那份收入微薄的工作也是朝不保夕的。

这种贫贱夫妻百事哀的现象并不是个例,好多夫妻结婚后由于双方都没稳定的工作,只好把孩子扔给自己的父母。我就不明白:经济基础如此之差的男人们,你们怎么好意思娶妻生子?

你们凭借爹妈给的脸蛋或者自己苦练的花言巧语,骗得一个女生和你们同居也应该满足了吧。你们为何还非要得寸进尺,用婚姻和孩子毁了这个女生的一生?我觉得那些穷男人学别人娶妻生子是极其无耻极其不负责任的行为,理由如下:

1.你们连个房子都买不起,让你们的女人在出租房里为你们怀胎生子,你们是不是太没担当了?就连雄性动物都知道在生育前为雌性弄个窝,你们真的连动物都不如。

2.确实,世界上的傻女人也很多,还是有为了所谓“爱情”而不介意你们无房的,但是你总得有份稳定的收入来养家糊口吧?我就见过老婆怀孕在家,而男方竟然也同时失业的。最终只好借钱度日,还要让自己的女人抛头露脸的去借钱。

3.都说不能让自己的孩子输在起跑线上,岂不知父母才是孩子的真正起跑线。别人的孩子都是站在父母的肩膀上起步,穷男人的孩子却都是从地下室起步的。不光从小无法得到优质的教育,长大后更是丝毫得不到父母的助力。注定一辈子在社会底层痛苦的挣扎,你们又于心何忍?

总之:对于穷男人们,你们最好是能独身就独身,实在憋不住就同居,娶妻生子是你们所能负担得起的吗?不光毁了一个女人的一生,也祸害了你们自己的孩子!

OK to slap spendthrift wife

The Straits Times
May 10, 2009 | 4:28 PM
OK to slap spendthrift wife

RIYADH - A SAUDI judge has told a seminar on domestic violence that it is okay for a man to slap his wife for lavish spending, a local newspaper reported on Sunday.

Jeddah judge Hamad al-Razine gave the example of overspending to buy a high-end abaya, the head-to toe black shroud Saudi women have to wear in public, as justifying a smack for one's wife, Arab News said.

'If a person gives 1,200 riyals (S$476) to his wife and she spends 900 riyals to purchase an abaya from a brand shop, and if her husband slaps her on the face as a reaction to her action, she deserves that punishment,' he said.

The judge's remarks sparked an outcry at the seminar on the role of judicial and security officials in preventing domestic violence, the paper reported.

The seminar was attended by officials as well as activists on domestic violence, including representatives of the National Family Safety Programme.

Mr al-Razine acknowledged the depth of the problem of domestic violence, until recently not acknowledged as a serious issue in the ultra-conservative Muslim country, where family problems traditionally remained behind closed doors.

Saudi women have in the past few years become more vocal about the problem of husbands beating wives and fathers mistreating children.

But mr al-Razine said some of the blame must be shouldered by wives for their behaviour. 'Nobody puts even a fraction of the blame on them,' he said, according to the report. -- AFP

Even the rich now fear running out of money

by Chuck Jaffe

If you worry about making money on the way up, you worry about losing it on the way down. So it should come as no surprise that wealthy Americans -- according to several different studies -- are now concerned that they will run out of money as the "Great Recession" will put the pinch on their finances for the foreseeable future.

But psychologists say there are two forms of "worry," the one that involves anxiety and fear, and then "productive worry" where individuals use their concern as a motivational tool to solve their problems.

Current worries have produced lower expectations, increased savings and the unlikely emotional feel-good power of "smart shopping" and being thrifty, if only because those solutions are easier and more realistic than trying to play a fast game of catch-up.

The "Survey of Affluence and Wealth in America," released Wednesday by American Express Publishing and Harrison Group, showed that 53% of the nation's wealthy are now worried that they could run out of money, in large measure because many of the respondents fear the country is headed for an economic depression.

Meanwhile, the 10th annual Phoenix Wealth Survey released Monday showed that America's millionaires have been stripped of their confidence and sense of security. The survey, conducted by The Phoenix Cos., which sell insurance and annuities to high-net-worth consumers, showed that roughly one in four people felt their wealth was "extremely" or "very secure" for the long term; nearly half of the surveyed millionaires felt their wealth was safe as recently as two years ago.

"People who are focused on wealth -- who spend much of their time worrying about making it and how they can better their future financially -- have a greater chance of attaining wealth, but they also feel the pain of loss more acutely," said John Nofsinger, a Washington State University professor who studies behavioral finance and investor psychology. "They're better off after this loss of wealth than most people, but emotionally they are hurting more than people with less wealth but different priorities."

Added Meir Statman, a professor at Santa Clara (Calif.) University: "This economy is playing mind games with people's aspirations. If you benchmark yourself against the richest man in town -- and that is frequently what wealthy people do -- you are going to feel mighty poor in the best of conditions. ... Yes, the market is bad, but a lot of wealthy people are making themselves miserable when their finances have merely taken a blow, not some fatal beating."

In short, don't cry for millionaires.

Dreams Down the Drain

But rich or poor, there appears to be a phenomenon at work here that is as much psychological as it is about cash.

Clearly, investors personalize losses more than gains. But for investors who have reached their financial goals, setbacks represent the destruction of a dream.

For a person who believes that a certain amount of net worth -- whether it is $200,000 or $10 million -- makes them set for life, seeing their portfolio shrink is like watching their dreams die. The financial world is full of stories of ordinary folks who amassed enough money to be set for life -- even with a market downturn -- but who then lived as if they had nothing. If $1 million was the goal, for example, $850,000 suddenly feels like failure, even if it means little or no change in standard of living.

"Among wealthy families, 80% feel like they have had substantial hits to their financial security and 88% have become more resourceful in terms of making financial decisions," said Jim Taylor, vice chairman of Harrison Group, a Connecticut-based research-consulting firm. "The savings rate for these families has gone through the roof, up to 12%."

"The irony is that despite the worries and the cutbacks and having to be more resourceful or spend less to make their money go further, the percentage of families reporting themselves to be very happy is up," Taylor added. "Two-thirds of the families say they are very happy, which is up since 2007."

Taylor believes that represents a turn toward optimism. Tuesday's consumer confidence numbers generally showed a big step up in confidence, although the overall numbers remained in negative territory.

Will We Revert?

And if spending less, being a smart shopper and saving more are helping to raise the self-esteem of the wealthy, there's at least a chance that these changes will be permanent, that old spendthrift habits will not return even if the market continues to rebound.

This is where behavioral finance experts disagree. Most believe that current economic woes have been enough to make people take temporary measures, with the hope that happy days will return, allowing the investing public to go back to its old habits. Some, like Taylor, think the new habits feel good enough that they will live beyond this recession.

"The permanence of these lifestyle changes is up for grabs," said Donald MacGregor of MacGregor-Bates, an Oregon-based firm that studies consumer and investor behavior. "The easy thing is to change habits now but to assume this is an aberrant situation and things will get better in the near future, near being the next year. And if things get better, rich or poor will probably go back to what they were doing a few years ago."

"But we may also be looking at a different economic way of life," MacGregor added. "So people are right to be worried, but their anxiety isn't really doing anything other than making them lose sleep. ... If you can take your anxiety and turn it into productive worry and make your situation better -- if you can solve this problem in the best way for yourself, by changing spending or savings habits -- the one thing you can be sure of is that you will be better off no matter when the economy comes around."

WHO: up to 2 billion people might get swine flu

GENEVA (AP) — The World Health Organization says up to 2 billion people could be infected by swine flu, if the current outbreak turns into a pandemic.

WHO flu chief Keiji Fukuda says the number wasn't a prediction, but that past experience with flu pandemics indicated one-third of the world's population gets infected.

Fukuda says that with a world population of 6 billion people, it's "reasonable" to expect that kind of infection tally.

He said WHO is unable to know what the future holds, and it is impossible now to say whether the pandemic would be mild or severe.

WHO has said it believes a global swine flu outbreak is imminent, and last week it raised its alert to five, one step short of a pandemic.

Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

German Intelligence Service's Working Group: The crisis is developing into the biggest danger to worldwide security

By Ludwig Weller and Ulrich Rippert

Excerpt: The German Intelligence Service (BND) has set up its own special working group to investigate the social consequences of the international crisis. The director of the federal academy for security policy, Kersten Lahl, who has responsibility for the working group told the press recently, “The crisis is developing into the biggest danger to worldwide security.”


(WSWS) -- The parties participating in Germany’s grand coalition government—the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU)—are preparing for a series of elections in this “mega-election” year.

The public posture of all of these parties in the forthcoming European election in June and the federal election in September is characterized by deceit and efforts to divert the electorate. The SPD, CDU and CSU are all trying to downplay the true extent of the economic crisis.

The parties hope to appease voters prior to the elections with a handful of campaign promises. The SPD promises a so-called “wage tax bonus” of 300 euros for all those who have no source of income other than their wage and refrain from filing itemized income tax returns. The SPD also proposes a small increase in child allowances.

Following a warning a week ago by pension experts, who noted that the rapidly rising number of workers on short-time and the growth of unemployment were reducing contributions to the pension fund, making pension cutbacks inevitable, Social Minister Olaf Scholz (SPD) told the press that any talk of pension cuts was nonsense. Pensions are safe, he claimed, and even went on to announce a legislative initiative to prevent future pension reductions.

The 20 million pensioners in Germany are a vital source of votes for the governing parties, and the parties have struck a collective agreement that the electorate should be denied any knowledge of the true extent of the pension fund crisis.

At an art exhibition held last weekend to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the establishment of the Federal Republic, German Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) airily spoke about the principle of “hope.” Merkel declared that it was the older generation after the Second World War who had shown courage, confidence and hope in rebuilding a Germany which had been reduced to ruin. This, she declared, showed that Germans could once again summon the energy to lift themselves out of the economic crisis. Merkel opened the exhibition with the words, “Art is hope.”

The CDU has not yet published its election manifesto for the federal election, but leading representatives of the party have promised tax reductions that will benefit “a large majority of the population.”

Rarely has an election year begun with such a disingenuous propaganda campaign on the part of the governing parties. While leading political figures are seeking to spread confidence, official crisis committees are working on emergency programs to reorganize the social welfare system against a background of sinking tax revenues and rising expenditures. Drastic social cuts are being prepared in all of the relevant ministries.

The next government, irrespective of which party wins the most votes, will implement drastic cuts in all spheres of social life. The present government is merely seeking to hold out until Election Day. Afterwards, all their promises will be consigned to the rubbish bin.

In its latest edition, the magazine Der Spiegel comments: “In light of the biggest international economic crisis since the thirties, the pronouncements of the grand coalition last week resemble a thoughtless mixture of blindness to reality and horse trading.”

All of the major economic research institutes have estimated that the German economy will shrink by six per cent in the coming year. Only recently, government representatives, and in particular Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück (SPD), denounced such forecasts as fear-mongering.

For months, Steinbrück claimed that the German economy, with its comparatively large industrial base, was much better placed to weather the effects of the crisis than other economies. Now it is clear that just the opposite is the case.

The dependency of the German economy on exports, particularly in the spheres of engineering and the electrical and chemical industries, is proving to be its Achilles heel. As consumption slumps across the globe, the German economy is proving especially susceptible to the worldwide recession.

In many branches, the decline in orders is greater than the average figures accepted by the government. Just a few days ago, the German Machine and Construction Federation (VDMA) announced that it had registered a strong decline in orders in March, coming on the heels of a fifty percent decline in February.

The decline in production is reflected in a constant increase in short-time working. Last year, the average number of workers on short time was around 102,000. In the current year, a rise of approximately 2 million workers on short time is expected.

In March alone, an additional 700,000 workers were put on short-time working and at the beginning of April the total in Germany topped 1.4 million workers. On two occasions, the government has extended the period of short-time working—first from one year to 18 months, and then to 24 months. It is clear that this measure is only a temporary stopgap that will give way to a wave of mass redundancies.

In many factories, short-time working is already being replaced by job cuts. In April, unemployment rose by about 60,000, according to of the Federal Labor Agency (BA), and since the beginning of the year unemployment has risen by a quarter of a million. Economic research institutes reckon that the total number of unemployed will rise from the current level of 3.5 million to over 5 million in 2010.

Short-time working and rising unemployment have a direct effect on the federal budget in two ways. First, the state receives less income in the form of tax revenues, and second, expenditures for the unemployed and short-time workers increase. (The German state pays a percentage of the wage to those on short-time work).

At the same time, the crisis has led to a drop in per capita income, which is the base level for the calculation of pensions. In order to maintain the present level of pensions, the government would have to massively subsidize the state pension fund.

The economic breakdown and the rise in direct and hidden unemployment have led to gaping holes of billions of euros in all social insurance funds. For the end of this year, experts predict a €50 billion deficit in the unemployment and health insurance funds alone. Because private citizens are no longer able to afford their social insurance contributions, the state will be forced to intervene to cover the deficits.

At the start of this year, the Federal Labor Agency had a surplus of €17 billion. It is now estimated that the agency will require additional funds of €15 to €20 billion by the end of 2010. For 2009 alone, the agency can reckon with an operational deficit of approximately €14 billion, according to one official source. The country’s health insurance funds also predict ballooning deficits estimated at up to €13 billion by the end of 2010.

According to press reports, Treasury experts estimate that shortfalls in revenue for all regional administrative bodies (federal, state and local) will total over €300 billion in the coming three years.

The federal government alone is expected to rack up debts of €50 billion—more than any preceding government. A large portion of the government’s investment in its economic stimulus package and its bank rescue plans are not included in this total. Both have been hidden in subsidiary budgets. For next year, the government is already reckoning with new debt levels totaling up to €80 billion.

Reflecting on this state of affairs, the Süddeutsche Zeitung commented in an article entitled “The Third Phase of the Crisis” that there was a strange contradiction between the economic crisis and its perception by the public. Currently, the population has accepted the situation with remarkable calm. Everything has remained peaceful in Germany, but this peace will soon be over, the newspaper predicted.

It wrote: “The crisis will reach its third phase in the coming months. The social security systems will begin to stagger. That will hit people much harder than earlier in the financial and economic crisis.”

When the chairman of the German Trade Union Federation (DGB), Michael Sommer, warned at the end of April of the possibility of “social riots,” he was roundly attacked by the government. It was irresponsible to talk of social conflicts, the chancellor declared in her May Day message.

Despite the fact that the election campaigns have already opened, all of the parliamentary parties are conspiring to ensure that no mention is made of the social and political consequences of the crisis. That has not prevented the government from making preparations for increased social conflict.

The German Intelligence Service (BND) has set up its own special working group to investigate the social consequences of the international crisis. The director of the federal academy for security policy, Kersten Lahl, who has responsibility for the working group told the press recently, “The crisis is developing into the biggest danger to worldwide security.”

Saturday, 9 May 2009

Seven Ways to Simplify Your Investment Life

By Christine Benz

Most of us would do well to adopt a streamlined approach to running our own portfolios. After all, wouldn't you prefer to have a portfolio devoted to a short list of those investments in which you have the highest degree of confidence, one that you can hold through thick and thin, no matter what the market serves up?

True enough, building such a portfolio is easier said than done. Life is messy, and as our financial lives get more complicated, most of us end up managing multiple accounts--our own 401(k) plans and those of our spouses, IRAs, 529s, and various taxable accounts, for example. But by following a few guidelines, you can set up a minimalist portfolio that you can really count on.

Stick with the Basics
Top portfolio managers will tell you that there's a lot of day-to-day "noise" in the market, most of which has little to no bearing on the actual value of their holdings. Individual investors would do well to keep this in mind when building their own portfolios.

True, it's hard to open the paper without seeing an article about TARP, bank stress tests, or whether the housing market will bounce back. But should you run out to buy an investment that's specifically designed to focus on one of those trends, such as a sector or regional fund? Probably not. Any such offerings tend to be expensive and exceptionally volatile, and individual investors have a record of buying them high and selling them low.

A better strategy, particularly if you're aiming to build a high-quality, low-maintenance portfolio, is to avoid these niche offerings altogether and instead focus on finding great core mutual funds--broadly diversified offerings with reasonable costs, seasoned management teams, and solid long-term risk/reward profiles. If you've done that, you can pretty much tune out the day-to-day noise and let your manager decide whether the next big thing is worth investing in or not.

Investigate One-Stop Funds
Of course, finding solid core funds is only part of the battle. Establishing and maintaining an asset mix suited to your particular investment objectives is another big task. That's why one-stop funds, particularly target-date funds, which "mature," or grow more conservative, as your goal draws near, make sense for so many investors. Because these are funds of funds that provide in a single package exposure to stock offerings (both foreign and U.S.), bond funds, and cash, they're ideally suited to investors looking to build streamlined portfolios.

And for busy people who don't have a lot of time to babysit their investments, target-date funds are ideal. Not only do they arrive at a stock/bond/cash mix that's appropriate for your time horizon, but they also gradually make that asset allocation more conservative as the target date draws near. You simply buy a fund that matches your target date--say, your child's anticipated college enrollment date or your planned retirement date--and tune out.

These funds aren't created equally; they can be costly and draw upon lackluster fund lineups, and a few funds geared toward pre-retirees lost huge sums last year. However, we think those in target funds from Vanguard (less aggressive asset allocations) and T. Rowe Price (more aggressive asset allocations) are in good hands.

Index
If you'd like to simplify your investment life but aren't ready to cede as much control as you're required to with a target-maturity fund, index funds could be your answer. With an indexing approach, you accept the market's return (or rather, the market's return less any fund expenses) rather than try to beat it. That's not a panacea: Investors in S&P 500 Index funds lost more than a third of their assets in 2008. But as Vanguard founder Jack Bogle has said, indexing is a way to ensure that you get your "fair share" of the market's return rather than forking it over to middlemen.

With index funds, you don't have to worry about manager changes. Or strategy changes. You always know how the fund is investing, no matter who is in charge. Many investors find indexing boring, but even investment junkies admit that index funds are among the lowest-maintenance investments around. The real work with indexing comes at the beginning of the process, when you're determining how much you want to hold in stocks, bonds, and so forth.

Take the Best and Leave the Rest
Simplifying your investment life isn't terribly complicated to do if you're managing a single retirement portfolio for yourself. But life is messy, with most investors juggling multiple portfolios and multiple goals at once. In addition to your own 401(k) plan, for example, you might also be overseeing an IRA for yourself and your spouse, a child's college-savings plan, and your household's taxable assets.

If you're like many investors, you're running each of these various accounts as well-diversified portfolios unto themselves. That's not unreasonable. But to help counteract portfolio sprawl, you might consider managing all of your accounts that share the same time horizon as a single portfolio, a unified whole. In so doing, you'll be able cut down on the number of holdings that you have to monitor, and you'll also be able to ensure that each of your picks is truly best of breed.

For example, say your spouse's retirement plan lacks worthwhile bond holdings but has a few terrific core equity-fund choices; yours has several solid bond picks. If that's the case, you may want to stash all of your spouse's assets in the stock funds while allocating a large percentage of your own 401(k) plan to bond funds.

The key to making this strategy work is to use tools such as Morningstar.com's Portfolio Manager and Instant X-Ray, which let you look at all of your accounts together, as a single portfolio. That way, you can see if your overall portfolio's asset allocation is in line with your target, and you can also determine whether you're adequately diversified across investment styles and sectors.

Jot Down Why You Own Each Investment
Simplification gurus preach that writing down our goals helps us organize our lives to meet those goals. The same can be said for investing: By writing down why you made an investment in the first place, you're more likely to make sure that the investment meets its original goal. If it isn't doing what you expected by sticking with a specific investment style and producing competitive long-term returns, you'll be ready to cut it loose. Noting why you bought the fund--to get large-cap growth exposure and consistently above-average returns from a manager who has been in charge for several years, for example--will help to instill discipline and eliminate some of the emotion that so often gets in the way of smart investing.

Say you bought Fidelity Contrafund (NASDAQ:FCNTX - News) to cover the costs of your daughter's education in 15 years. You chose the fund because it earned a Morningstar Rating of 5 stars, reflecting a good combination of returns and risk; its expenses were lower than the category average; and it has a very long-tenured manager in Will Danoff. Those are all good reasons. So you ­shouldn't even consider selling the fund unless it falls short on these points, and so far it hasn't.

To take the opposite case, maybe you bought Putnam International Growth & Income (NASDAQ:PNGAX - News) 10 years ago because you wanted some international exposure and you were attracted by Putnam's strong performance on its international funds. But since then, the fund's performance has been erratic, and Putnam's international team has seen a lot of upheaval. Because the fund is no longer meeting your main reasons for buying it, selling would be a reasonable choice. Other legitimate reasons to sell would be that a fund has hiked its expense ratio or assets have gotten so bloated that performance starts to suffer.

Consolidate Your Investments with a Single Firm or Supermarket
By investing with only one fund supermarket or fund family, you eliminate excess complexity, cutting back on paperwork and filing. And the consolidated statements you'll receive can make tax time much easier, too. Instead of pulling together taxable distributions and gains from different statements, you'll have them all in one place.

If you want to stick with just one fund family, consider one of the big ones, such as Fidelity, Vanguard, or T. Rowe Price. These no-load families are all relatively low-cost, with Vanguard being the cheapskate champion, and each offers a diverse lineup of mutual funds. If you would rather pick and choose among fund families, then a mutual fund supermarket might be your best option. Fund supermarkets bring together funds from a variety of fund groups.

Put Your Investments on Autopilot
You may pay your electric and water bills automatically; why not invest the same way? You won't have to send a check out every month, every quarter, or every year. There's an added benefit to investing relatively small amounts on a regular basis (also called dollar-cost averaging): You may actually invest more than you would if you plunked down a lump sum, and at more opportune times. When you're dollar-cost averaging, you're putting dollars to work no matter what's going on in the market. You have effectively put on blinders against short-term market swings: Whether the market is going up or going down, $100 (or whatever amount you choose to invest) is going into your fund every month no matter what. That's discipline. Would you be able to write a check for $100 if your fund had lost 15% the previous month? Maybe not. But that would mean $100 less working for you when your investments rebounded.

For example, an investor who put in $600 up front in January would have gotten 60 shares at $10 per share. Those shares were worth $12 in June, so her investment was worth $720. If she had dollar-cost averaged her investment, putting in $100 per month, she would have purchased some of her shares on the cheap and wound up with 62.1 shares in June. At $12 per share, she would have had $745.20--$25 more than if she had invested a lump sum at the beginning.

Be careful about using a dollar-cost averaging program if you use a broker or advisor to buy and sell shares, however. If you're paying a front-end load, you'll pay that amount on each and every investment. Perhaps more important, by making smaller purchases you might not be eligible for sales-charge discounts that are frequently available to those who are investing larger sums.

This is a version of a chapter that appeared in the Morningstar Guide to Mutual Funds: 5-Star Strategies for Success.

Christine Benz does not own shares in any of the securities mentioned above.

Friday, 8 May 2009

Five things to worry about

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks were finally taking a bit of a breather Thursday.

And with GM reporting a $6 billion loss, the government finally set to announce exactly how much capital 19 big banks will have to raise as a result of the stress tests and most retailers posting same-store sales declines for April, can you blame investors for the pullback?

Sentiment has shifted at the drop of a dime, with people trying to find good news everywhere they look. And the fact that the market has gone from Chicken Little to Alfred E. Neuman (What, me worry?) in just two months has to be a concern.

I want to believe that this rally is for real and that the worst is over for the economy. I'm not one of those so-called perma-bears who will forever proclaim that the end is nigh. But there are still some potential pitfalls out there that could derail the recovery for the economy and stock market.

The banks aren't healthy yet. Yes, bank stocks have soared in the past two months. And the stress tests are likely to show that several big banks don't need to raise new capital. And those that will be required to do so are probably going to have to come up with far less than many investors feared a few months ago.

Still, that doesn't mean the banking system is completely fixed. The worst may in fact be behind them. But banks aren't showing the same confidence in themselves that Wall Street is. If they were, the credit crunch would be over.

"There is a sense that banks are not falling into a bottomless pit anymore," said Sean Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida in Orlando. "But that's a far cry from saying the banking system is back on two legs. Until banks actually start lending again, you can't say the patient has recovered,"
Talkback: What risks do you see to a possible recovery?

There are also concerns that banks may still have to reckon with existing loans outside of residential mortgages and credit cards that haven't gone bad yet. In particular, some are worried that commercial real estate could be the proverbial next shoe to drop.

"If the financial sector's balance sheets don't heal, we won't get a recovery. Commercial real estate is a significant risk that could be another blow to banks," said Benjamin Reitzes, an economist with BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

It's all about jobs. Even if the market continues to rally and housing prices stabilize, many consumers will continue to focus on the labor market as the main barometer of the economy's health.

It's hard to imagine how consumers will boost the economy through more spending if companies are still shedding hundreds of thousands of workers a month. Plus, there could be more job pain ahead, especially with Chrysler already filing for bankruptcy and GM (GM, Fortune 500) appearing to head down that route as well.

To be sure, the job market is a lagging indicator. So the unemployment rate probably won't start declining until well after the recession is over.

But Snaith said people won't necessarily take comfort in this fact, since the job losses in this recession are far worse than during the 2001 recession and so-called jobless recovery that lasted another two years. The unemployment rate peaked at 6.3% in 2003. It's already 8.5% and many economists think it could pass double digits before long.

"The job losses are more severe than the last recession. So the notion of a jobless recovery this time around is more troublesome," Snaith said.

Gas pains return. Don't look now, but oil prices are nearing $60 a barrel. And the average price of gas is now $2.14 a gallon. Sure, that's a far cry from last summer's record highs. But gas prices are up nearly a dime a gallon in just the past week.

The more that the broader markets rally on evidence of an economic recovery, the more likely it is that oil and gas prices will head higher as well, since investors in commodities may start speculating about a big increase in demand. And with summer just around the corner, the usual seasonal spike in gas prices should come into play.

Consumers do seem to be more confident, thanks to hopes that the housing market may be close to hitting bottom at long last. But this recovery is still tentative. If investors get ahead of themselves and gas prices skyrocket as a result, that could be a problem.

"Rising gas prices could weigh on consumer spending. It's not a big worry just yet. But consumers will take any help they can get and lower gas prices have helped," said BMO's Reitzes.

Trade wars on the horizon? Historians and economists have laid some of the blame for the Great Depression on President Herbert Hoover's protectionist trade policies.

Few expect history to repeat itself. But there are worries about the potential for trade wars to develop considering that there are some Buy American provisions in the stimulus bill that Congress passed earlier this year.

"One worry I have is protectionism. There are fears that some countries would look within in response to this crisis. Hopefully, that doesn't happen this time around," said Jeff Mortimer, chief investment officer of Charles Schwab Investment Management.

And considering that the global economy is far more interconnected now than it was 80 years ago, any steep barriers to trade could be disastrous.

Too far, too fast. Finally, the biggest risk to a comeback could very well be that investors are getting way ahead of themselves.

Again, I want to reiterate that I'm not predicting another depression. There are healthy signs that the economy is stabilizing.

But it's starting to look like investors are anticipating a rapid, stunning turnaround, the proverbial V-shaped recovery. Instead, the economy could bounce around on the bottom for a bit, something economists refer to a U-shaped recovery. So If hopes for a quick rebound are dashed, there could be trouble.

"The worst is probably behind us. But how good of a recovery will we get? It probably will be a weak recovery," Reitzes said. "People may be disappointed because they are overly optimistic and things aren't likely to improve at the rate they want to see."

Wednesday, 6 May 2009

Things will still get worse

By Michelle Tay

THINGS will still get worse before they get better, but the upside is that the stock markets appear to be bottoming, said the chief executive of Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC), Mr David Conner.

Mr Conner gave this assessment at a media briefing on the group's first quarter results on Wednesday, shortly after a Bloomberg report said that most Asian stocks rose on the better-than-expected earnings of United Overseas Bank (UOB) and OCBC, offsetting concerns that US banks will need more capital.

OCBC said its first-quarter profit fell 12 per cent due to writedowns on bad debts. Singapore's third largest lender earned a net profit of $545 million in the three months to Mar 31, down from $622 million in the same period a year ago.

Bad debts totalled $197 million, compared to a net allowance writeback of $8 million a year ago. The allowances include $94 million for the bank's corporate CDO (collateralised debt obligations) portfolio, as the bank's total CDO exposure of $305 million has been fully written down through the first quarter income statement.

Said Mr Conner: 'It's quite a surprise that portfolio declined as rapidly as it did given the fact that 18 months ago it was a single A-rated portfolio. But it was continuing to decline so we said enough is enough and let?s put it behind us once and for all.'

OCBC's revenue for the quarter grew 16 per cent year on year to $740 million, driven by loans growth and improved interest margins. Gross loans grew 7 per cent to $80.4 billion, which the bank attributed mainly to business loans in Singapore and overseas markets.

'If you add it all up it's quite a good quarter,' said Mr Conner, adding that the group has 'done well' despite the challenging operating environment.

But he cautioned: 'We don't see good times returning very quickly. Consumers have to rebuild their own balance sheet, and even if they wanted to be profligate with their spending, they can't get credit. So I think it's going to be a fairly long and slow climb out of this situation.'

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2008, however, the group's profit rose by 118 per cent from $250 million, due to a doubling in insurance income from subsidiary Great Eastern Holdings, a recovery in foreign exchange, securities and derivatives dealing income from losses in the previous quarter, and a reduction in expenses, said the group.

Revenue saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 134 per cent, also due to the higher insurance income. Net gains from foreign exchange, securities and derivatives dealing totalled $112 million, up from net losses of $64 million for these trading activities in the previous quarter.

Bernanke: Economy should grow again later in 2009

Bernanke says US economy should pull out of recession and start growing again later this year

* Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday the economy should start growing again later this year, his most optimistic assessment of the United States' financial health since the recession struck with force last year.

But Bernanke warned that even after a recovery gets under way, economic activity is likely to be subpar. That means businesses will stay cautious about hiring, driving up the U.S. unemployment rate and causing "further sizable job losses" in the coming months, he told the Joint Economic Committee.

The recession, which started in December 2007, already has snatched a net total of 5.1 million jobs. The unemployment rate "could remain high for a time, even after economic growth resumes," Bernanke said.

But while some economists believe unemployment could hit 10 percent by the end of this year, the Fed doesn't share that view. The unemployment rate will probably climb "somewhere" in the 9 percent range, Bernanke said.

"The loss of jobs is one of the most distressing aspects of this whole episode," he said.

Even with all the cautionary notes, the Fed chief offered a far less dour assessment of the economy.

"We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year," he told lawmakers. "We expect that the recovery will only gradually gain momentum."

Recent data suggest the recession may be loosening its grip on the country, Bernanke said.

"The pace of contraction may be slowing," he said. It was similar to an observation the Fed made last week in deciding not to take any additional steps to shore up the economy.

The housing market, which has been in a slump for three years, has shown some signs of bottoming, he said. Consumer spending, which collapsed in the second half of last year, came back to life in the first quarter.

In the months ahead, consumer spending should be lifted by tax cuts contained in President Barack Obama's larger $787 billion stimulus package. Still, rising unemployment, sinking home values and cracked nest eggs will still weigh on consumers willingness to spend freely, Bernanke said.

Bernanke took some heat for the Fed's decision not to hasten the implementation of new rules to protect Americans from abusive credit card practices, as some lawmakers had requested. The Fed's rules take effect in July 2010.

Rep. Elijah Cummings said many Americans burned by the recession have watched banks and other companies get bailed out and feel like: "Hey, we're on fire, too. What about us?"

Sen. Charles Schumer called the Fed's decision "unconscionable."

But in the latest sign the downturn could be easing, activity in the services sector contracted at a slower pace in April, the Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday. Its service sector index came in at 43.7 in April, up from 40.8 in March. Any reading below 50 indicates the service sector, where most Americans work, is contracting.

Meanwhile, business investment remains "extremely weak," and conditions in the commercial real estate market are "poor," the Fed chief said.

Still, Bernanke said he was hopeful that factory production would pick up later this year to replenish stockpiles of goods that have been slashed. And there's been tentative signs that the declines in other countries' economic activity may be moderating, which could help sales of U.S. exports. They have been falling sharply, a key factor behind the drag on U.S. manufacturing, he said.

Private analysts are predicting the economy won't shrink nearly as much as it had been -- anywhere from a pace of 1 to 3 percent -- in the current quarter. As Obama's economic stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending takes hold, analysts think the economy could start growing again in the third or forth quarter of this year.

The economy's rate of decline topped 6 percent in both the final three months of 2008 and in the first quarter of this year. It marked the worst six-month performance since the late 1950s.

Many economists expect the jobless rate will jump to 8.9 percent in April from a quarter-century high of 8.5 percent in March as employers slash hundreds of thousands more jobs. The government releases that report on Friday.

On the financial front, Bernanke said there have been signs of improvements in easing some credit stresses. However, financial markets remain under considerable strain.

As Bernanke has said in the past, the Fed's forecast for a recovery hinges on the government's ability to gradually repair the financial system.

"A relapse ... would be a significant drag on economic activity and could cause the incipient recovery to stall," he warned.

Bernanke didn't provide details about how 19 large banks fared on "stress tests." Results, to be released Thursday, should shed light on which banks may need government support if the recession were to worsen.

He did say that after the results are released, banks will be required to develop "comprehensive capital plans for establishing the required buffers" to protect against future losses. They will have six months to execute those plans or get help from the government.

Bernanke said there are "significant opportunities for capital raising outside government programs," and that many banks should be able to do so by selling assets or taking other steps.

The International Monetary Fund estimated that $275 billion more in capital would be needed to cushion against further losses at U.S. banks. While refusing to provide any numbers, Bernanke said he thought the IMF's figure overestimated any additional capital needs.

Responding to lawmakers' concerns about secrecy in its lending and bailout programs, Bernanke said the Fed will start providing information on the number of borrowers under each plan, details of credit extended and information on the collateral put up for the loans.

But Bernanke didn't say the Fed would release the identity of borrowers, something lawmakers have pushed for.

Monday, 4 May 2009

Scams You Can Bank On

by Gail Liberman and Alan Lavine

Frauds targeting bank accounts are on the upswing; here's what you can do

As if the negative repercussions of the global financial crisis weren't enough, now savers have something new to worry about: Scams targeting bank accounts are on the rise.

One of the newest frauds involves recruiting unsuspecting job-seekers to help launder money. Those hired become "mules" -- people who never know they're collaborating with fraudsters, says Uri Rivner, who heads new anti-fraud technology for RSA, a division of EMC Corp., in Hopkinton, Mass.

The job postings seem legitimate; often the company has a professional-looking corporate Web site. The jobs may involve wiring money out of the country through an international wire agent. Or reshipping computers and other merchandise -- perhaps purchased originally with a stolen credit card.

According to Rivner, when victims at one job Web site clicked on the "careers" tab, they were invited to apply for a job as a regional manager in the U.S. responsible for shipping merchandise. The offer by the company, promising a great salary for little work, involved repackaging and shipping merchandise, supposedly obtained from an e-commerce Web site overseas.

More than 1,900 job-hungry Americans applied. Of those, 33 were hired as actual "mules." After a few weeks, some became victims of identity theft because they had provided personal information, including social security numbers, on the fake job application. Those stolen identities were used to commit check fraud and other financial crimes.

Not So Friendly

Another hot scam, Rivner says: Fraudsters gain access to the names of your friends on social networking sites, like MySpace.com, and invite you to click on a hyperlink to view a funny video. Victims figure they know the sender, so they click to watch. Then their screen freezes, and they get a message telling them their video player needs upgrading.

Click to upgrade, however, and you have just accepted a Trojan horse, which follows your movements online. Through it, scammers can capture personal information, including credit card numbers, social security numbers and even online check photographs when you conduct business online.

"Malware and Trojans [are] distributed on a massive scale," Rivner says.

Other illegal banking activities also are increasing. Identity theft increased 22% to nearly 10 million victims in 2008, according to Javelin Strategy & Research, a Pleasanton, Calif.-based research firm. And the Federal Trade Commission clocked 313,982 identity-theft complaints, up from 215,000 in 2003.

Meanwhile, more than 5 million U.S. consumers lost money to "phishing" attacks in the year ending September 2008, a 40% increase over the number of victims a year earlier, according to Stamford, Conn.-based research firm Gartner Inc.

Even bank robberies, burglaries and thefts are rising, with 1,645 occurring in the last quarter of 2008, according to the FBI. The upward trend continued into 2009.

The most disturbing trend is that many financial frauds may be interconnected.

"Everything is linked," Rivner says. "It could be the same people. It could be the same resources, or the same mule accounts." Also linked, he says: Online and offline fraud.

On average, 44% of a community bank's check fraud losses could be attributed to organized crime rings, the American Bankers Association reported.

The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, a federal agency established to safeguard the financial system, reported in March that in some cases of mortgage fraud, the scammers are connected to other types of financial crimes, including check fraud, money laundering, stock manipulation, suspicious documents and forgery.

The FCEN says banks have become better at tracking suspected mortgage fraud through mandated recordkeeping. Plus, law enforcement agencies are cooperating more to catch these crooks. But how can the FCEN detect activities involving mules who never even realize they're laundering money? Key factors, according to Bill Grassano, an FCEN spokesman, include whether there is interaction with a financial institution, and what resources and leads a law enforcement investigator has.

What You Can Do

To protect yourself, consider the following tips:

* Be skeptical of messages urging you to upgrade programs or download anything, even if you think you know the person.

* Upgrade antivirus software, personal firewalls and browsers. Let your operating system accept automatic patches with updates.

* Don't respond to work-at-home ads or promises of money or returns that sound too good to be true.


* Be wary of providing personal information to people you don't know.

* Check credit reports annually for free, only at AnnualCreditReport.com. See the site.

* Before cashing checks and money orders from people you don't know, verify funds exist in the account at the issuing financial institution.

* Avoid paying upfront fees before an expected service is performed.

* Carefully monitor bank and investment statements for evidence of fraud, and immediately report anything suspicious.

* Don't click on email hyperlinks.

* Change passwords often.

* Avoid your bank branch between 9 a.m. and 11 a.m. and on Fridays, when the FBI says most bank robberies occur.

Spouses Gail Liberman and Alan Lavine are syndicated columnists. Their latest book is "Quick Steps to Financial Stability" (Que/Penguin). You can contact them at www.moneycouple.com.

Copyrighted, MarketWatch. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of MarketWatch content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of MarketWatch. MarketWatch shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Why the Cheap Will Never Get Rich

by Robert Kiyosaki

The other day a friend of mine approached me excitedly, saying, "I found the house of my dreams. It's in foreclosure and the bank will sell it to me for a great price."

"How good is the price?" I asked.

"Just before the real estate market crashed, the seller was asking $780,000 for the property. Today, I can buy it from the bank for $215,000. What do you think?" she asked.

"How would I know?" I replied. "All you've given me is the price."

"Yes!" she squealed. "Now my husband and I can afford it."

"Only cheap people buy on price," I replied. "Just because something is cheap doesn't mean it's worth the cost."

I then explained to her one of my most basic money principles: I buy value. I will pay more for value. If I don't like the price, I simply pass. If the seller wants to sell, he will come back with a better price. I let him tell me what he will accept. I know some people love to haggle; personally, I don't. If a person wants to sell, they will sell. If I feel what I am buying is of value, I'll pay the price. Value rather than price has made me rich.

Against my advice, my friend sought financing for her "dream" home.

Fortunately, the bank turned her down. The house was on a busy street in a deteriorating neighborhood. The high school four blocks away was one of the most dangerous schools in the city. Her son and daughter would either have to go to private school or take karate lessons. She is now looking for a cheaper house to buy and has asked her father, who is retired, for help with the down payment. If her past is a crystal ball to her future, she will likely always be cheap and poor, even though she is a good, kind, educated, hard-working person.

My Point of View

What follows are some thoughts on why my friend will probably never get ahead financially -- especially in this market.

1. She and her husband have college degrees but zero financial education. Even worse, neither plans to attend any investment classes. Choosing to remain financially uneducated has caused them to miss out on the greatest bull and bear markets in history. As my rich dad often said, "What you don't know keeps you poor."

2. She is too emotional. In the world of money and investing, you must learn to control your emotions. When you think about it, three of our biggest financial decisions in life are made at times of peak emotional excitement: deciding to get married, buying a home, and having kids.

My dad often said, "High emotions, low intelligence." To be rich, you need to see the good and the bad, the short- and long-term consequences of your decisions. Obviously, this is easier said than done, but it's key to building wealth.

3. She doesn't know the difference between advice from rich people and advice from sales people. Most people get their financial advice from the latter -- people who profit even if you lose. One reason why financial education is so important is because it helps you know the difference between good and bad advice.

As the current crisis demonstrates, our schools teach very little about money management. Millions of people are living in fear because they followed conventional wisdom: Go to school, get a job, work hard, save money, buy a house, get out of debt, and invest for the long term in a well-diversified portfolio of mutual funds. Many people who followed this financial prescription are not sleeping at night. They need a new plan. Had they sought out a little financial education, they might not be entangled in this mess.

A Thank You to Jon Stewart

Speaking of finance experts, I personally want to thank Jon Stewart of 'The Daily Show' for taking on Jim Cramer and CNBC. Jon Stewart did an incredible job of representing the millions of people all over the world who have lost their savings in the market. He was right in saying he thought it "disingenuous" to advise people to invest for the long term through their retirement plans while knowing full well that traders could steal Americans' retirement money by trading in and out of the market. Most traders like Cramer realize that investing in mutual funds for the long term is financial suicide. Cramer should have spoken up, but we all know why CNBC won't let him tell the truth. If he did, the station's advertisers would leave.

While I applaud Cramer for going on 'The Daily Show' and facing the music, I'm afraid he was marginalized by Stewart -- certainly outgunned -- and he has lost his credibility. He may pay an even bigger price if the SEC decides to dig deeper.

Jim Cramer is a very smart man. I watch his show. I just do not follow his advice.

In closing, I will say what I have said for years: We need financial education in our schools. Without it, we cannot tell the good advice from the bad.
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EU revises forecast; predicts deep, wide recession

EU revises forecasts down; predicts deep, wide recession as Germany takes global trade hit

* Aoife White, AP Business Writer

BRUSSELS (AP) -- Deepening the economic gloom in Europe, the European Union admitted Monday that its previous forecasts were way off the mark. It now predicts "a deep and widespread recession" across the continent and says unemployment among the 16 nations that use the euro will rise to a postwar record of 11.5 percent in 2010.

Driving the pessimism was the region's biggest economy, Germany, which has been hit hard by the "near collapse" in global trade -- a potentially difficult backdrop for Chancellor Angela Merkel as she strives to win elections later this year.

The EU now reckons that Germany will contract by a massive 5.4 percent this year as global demand dries up for high-value goods such as Germany's cars and machinery. In January, the EU thought Germany would only shrink 2.3 percent this year.

Partly because of the bigger than anticipated downturn in Germany, the EU's executive said both the 27-nation EU and euro-zone will shrink by 4 percent this year, more than double its January estimates, when it forecast a 1.8 percent contraction for the EU and a 1.9 percent decline for the euro-zone area.

The EU's top economy official, Joaquin Almunia, blamed the EU downgrades on an "exceptionally bad" first three months of this year as industrial output slumped at a record pace, exports stalled and business and consumer confidence hit new lows. EU growth figures for the first quarter are due on May 15.

Almunia told reporters that recent surveys for euro-zone and German confidence "appear to confirm that the economy is no longer in free fall." He said the EU now expected the economy to start bottoming out in the middle of this year as "the fiscal stimulus measures, the bank rescue plans and the monetary easing are expected to start bearing fruit in the next quarters."

He said a new stimulus package could not be ruled out and could be discussed by EU leaders at a June summit.

Quarterly growth is unlikely to emerge until 2010, Almunia said, but even then both the EU and the euro-zone will likely shrink 0.1 percent over the whole year provided stability emerges in the banking sector and world trade turns around.

Plunging exports and industrial output are causing the economy to shrink -- and will see some 8.5 million jobs shed from the EU in 2009 and 2010, more than wiping out the number of new jobs created in the last two years. In the 16 nations that use the euro, unemployment will hit a postwar record of 11.5 percent next year.

Euro-zone exports are "forecast to suffer one of the worst setbacks on record" with a 13-percent slump this year, partly because the strong euro makes euro goods more expensive for U.S. and British customers.

Germany will see exports shrink by a worse 16 percent, forcing companies to reduce investment in new equipment by a fifth and cut 1.5 million jobs this year and next year. An export pick-up next year is Germany's main hope for growth, the EU said, as household demand and business spending will remain weak next year.

The EU forecast that Britain and Italy will shrink by between 4 percent to 4.5 percent this year, while France, cushioned by heavy government spending that supports growth, will post a smaller 3-percent drop. Spain will also likely shrink by 3 percent.

Only one of the EU's 27 states -- Cyprus -- may see economic growth this year, while countries cooling from a housing bubble experience the biggest tumble in growth rates -- Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all expected to post double-digit declines.

Both Britain and France will see unemployment climb over 3 million next year -- with France reporting an 11 percent jobless rate, the EU said. Spain is forecast to fare worse with one in five workers unable to find a job -- an unemployment rate of 20 percent.

The EU warned that even worse may be ahead and banks' efforts to deleverage -- shore up their financial position by putting more money aside to cover bad debt -- "may unravel with greater intensity than currently expected."

It also said a bad debt spiral from falling house prices could trigger a wave of business bankruptcies that lift unemployment and lead to more debt defaults.

To avoid this, it called on European governments to shore up confidence in banks by moving swiftly to clean up banks' balance sheets by taking on hard-to-value assets that have racked up huge losses and launching new bank recapitalizations as needed.

EU banks have already written down euro290 billion in losses, it said, calling for close-monitoring of debt defaults, particularly in eastern Europe where many western banks may face bad loan books as housing prices collapse and unemployment rises.

It also warned of fluctuating exchange rates and protectionist measures that could further cut global trade and remove a major crutch to an economic recovery next year.

The EU said Europe faces a limited risk of deflation -- a corrosive spiral of falling prices -- but that several countries will see "disinflation" for several months this year as energy prices plunge from record highs last summer.

The EU now expects euro-zone inflation of 0.4 percent this year and said lower inflation and interest rates may help support the economy by giving people more money to spend and less to repay on housing loans.

How to be happy? -- Ashtavakra Gita and Advaita

London, UK - 20 August 2006 - When we have met friends on various world tours of The Great Spiritual Masters, the eternal question "How to be happy?" has often come up. The Ashtavakra Gita has been universally cited as a step in the right direction because it presents the traditional teachings of Advaita (Non-Dualism) Vedanta with a clarity and power very rarely matched.

The Ashtavakra Gita, or the Ashtavakra Samhita (Ashtavakra's Collection) as it is sometimes called, is a very ancient Sanskrit text. There is little doubt amongst scholars in the East and West that it dates back to the days of the classic Vedanta period. The Sanskrit style and the doctrine expressed warrant this assessment. The text sees duality as the root of evil, asserts the importance of belief in sharing one's world view as unlimited or unbounded, and confidently proclaims the radical unity of "Universal Consciousness" and Its Creative Connections including humankind.

The obscure Ashtavakra Gita "Ashtavakra's Song" -- as distinct from the famous Bhagavad Gita "Divine Song" of Lord Krishna's within the Mahabharata -- is a divine discourse between the Perfect Master Ashtavakra (Eight times Knotted or Gnarled Guru) and Raja Janak (King Janaka), who later in his life became a Perfect Master. Raja Janak was the only one to have been born a Royal and to remain one throughout his life whilst dispensing the duties of King and Perfect Saint simultaneously. The Great Perfect Masters have all stressed the importance of this inspirational and true piece of work in their talks by way of a treatise on the true path -- a manual towards continuous self-improvement.

Since many have found the synopsis of the Ashtavakra Gita useful over the years, John Richards translation of the Introductory Chapter I follows, post the salutations and signature. If there is appetite for further chapters they will be posted later.

With love in His Name


DK with family

DK Matai
The Philanthropia, ATCA, mi2g.net


Ashtavakra Gita

Chapter I - Introduction

Raja Janak said:

1. How is one to acquire knowledge? How is one to attain liberation? And how is one to reach dispassion? Tell me this, sir.

Master Ashtavakra replied:

2. If you are seeking liberation, my son, avoid the objects of the senses like poison and cultivate tolerance, sincerity, compassion, contentment, and truthfulness as the antidote.

3. You do not consist of any of the elements -- earth, water, fire, air, or even ether. To be liberated, know yourself as consisting of consciousness, the witness of these.

4. If only you will remain resting in consciousness, seeing yourself as distinct from the body, then even now you will become happy, peaceful and free from bonds.

5. You do not belong to the Brahmin or any other caste, you are not at any stage, nor are you anything that the eye can see. You are unattached and formless, the witness of everything -- so be happy.

6. Righteousness and unrighteousness, pleasure and pain are purely of the mind and are no concern of yours. You are neither the doer nor the reaper of the consequences, so you are always free.

7. You are the one witness of everything and are always completely free. The cause of your bondage is that you see the witness as something other than this.

8. Since you have been bitten by the black snake, the opinion about yourself that "I am the doer," drink the antidote of faith in the fact that "I am not the doer," and be happy.

9. Burn down the forest of ignorance with the fire of the understanding that "I am the one pure awareness," and be happy and free from distress.

10. That in which all this appears is imagined like the snake in a rope; that joy, supreme joy, and awareness is what you are, so be happy.

11. If one thinks of oneself as free, one is free, and if one thinks of oneself as bound, one is bound. Here this saying is true, "Thinking makes it so."

12. Your real nature is as the one perfect, free, and actionless consciousness, the all-pervading witness -- unattached to anything, desireless and at peace. It is from illusion that you seem to be involved in samsara (the world and its attachments).

13. Meditate on yourself as motionless awareness, free from any dualism, giving up the mistaken idea that you are just a derivative consciousness or anything external or internal.

14. You have long been trapped in the snare of identification with the body. Sever it with the knife of knowledge that "I am awareness," and be happy, my son.

15. You are really unbound and actionless, self-illuminating and spotless already. The cause of your bondage is that you are still resorting to stilling the mind.

16. All of this is really filled by you and strung out in you, for what you consist of is pure awareness -- so don't be small-minded.

17. You are unconditioned and changeless, formless and immovable, unfathomable awareness, unperturbable: so hold to nothing but consciousness.

18. Recognise that the apparent is unreal, while the unmanifest is abiding. Through this initiation into truth you will escape falling into unreality again.

19. Just as a mirror exists everywhere both within and apart from its reflected images, so the Supreme Lord exists everywhere within and apart from this body.

20. Just as one and the same all-pervading space exists within and without a jar, so the eternal, everlasting God exists in the totality of all things.

Saturday, 2 May 2009

Buy house, get free wife

GET a house and gain a wife.

That's the bizarre sales pitch of a Beijing- based property developer struggling to combat a severe market slump in China that has seen home sales and prices plunge.

According to a report posted on media and advertising website Danwei, property developer Jin Tai Cheng is luring potential buyers at its upmarket Ecological Bay villa project with an invitation to date its salesgirls.

Their photographs and vital statistics are put up on the company website.

The marketing pitch goes: 'Planning to buy a house? Can we tempt you with the offer of a young bride - and a dowry as well?'

The company encourages future homeowners to date its salesgirls and promises a wedding present of 60,000 yuan ($13,100) to any couple that ends up getting married.

The website said the company offers the salesgirls 8 per cent in sales commissions.

At the same time, the salesgirls stand a chance to secure a wealthy husband.

But should the couple divorce within a year, the package deal is void.

The desperate sales pitch is the latest manifestation of the grim outlook for China's real estate market.

According to China Daily, housing prices are expected to fall later this year following a drop in sales, citing data from the Blue Book of Real Estate 2009 released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (Cass) last Thursday.

'Last year was the most gloomy period for China's real estate market since housing reform in 1998, in the face of the global economic downturn,' said Mr Li Jingguo, director of the research centre for urban development and environment under the Cass.

Housing sales fell last year

The volume of housing sales fell by 19.7 per cent last year, the report said.

He said many buyers postponed plans to buy a house because of the uncertain economic outlook.

Last November, the Chinese government announced a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package.

Despite this, the real estate market has shown no sign of a recovery so far, notes Mr Ren Zhiqiang, president of the Huayuan group.

Friday, 1 May 2009

The Dark Side of Inheriting Money

By Dayana Yochim Dayana Yochim

There's an old saw that goes something like this: "Money suddenly gained often drains away, while money earned gradually stays with you."

Perhaps the keepers of old sayings should add: "And money that you inherit will make you feel more agitated than a load of wet T-shirts balled up and making a racket in the washing machine." Only "they" would find a more graceful way of putting it.

Who doesn't like getting money?
It's no surprise that dealing with an inheritance is one of the most popular topics handled by financial advisors. There are all those tax and legal issues of handling a windfall and investment decisions to be made.

Then there are the less tangible aspects of coming into money -- guilt and elation, isolation and confusion.

Such emotions play a huge role in how people manage an inherited windfall. What was once viewed simply as currency suddenly takes on an unattractive pallor. People treat this tainted money as if it somehow spends differently than the money our employer direct-deposits into our checking accounts. For some, it becomes fun money as they get caught up in a spending spree that would make Michael Jackson giggle with delight (until the money well quickly dries up). Others simply freeze.

Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes authors Gary Belsky and Thomas Gilovich found that the more choices a person has, the more likely he is to do nothing. It's called financial paralysis. And it's not too much of a leap to see why coming into a windfall would cause someone to freeze in his or her tracks.

Readying yourself for a windfall
With a little foresight you can be that smart heir who truly honors the person who left money to you.

The most important thing to consider is how to redeploy the money where it works best for you -- not your forebear. This means considering tax issues, stepped-up cost bases, and even the emotional attachment you may feel to your grandmother's investments in GE, for instance.

Here are some general tips to help you be a smart heir or heiress:

Do not put your life on hold, waiting for the windfall. We're living longer, and health-care costs are skyrocketing. Or, as a friend of mine likes to say when she jokes with her parents, "Don't break your hip. You'll wipe out my inheritance." (Her parents laugh at this joke. Really, they do!) In practical terms, live your life, save like nothing's coming to you, and be grateful if your loved ones are able to leave you a small gift of money. The operative word here is "small," particularly given the stock market's recent performance.

On the other hand, be as prepared as you can. It can feel weird to bring up the topic, but it's important to be open with your older relatives about their final financial wishes. At the same time, don't leave your kids in the dark. You don't want to leave this world and make them deal with a mess of paperwork and confusion at a highly emotional time. Start with this list of must-have documents.

Chill out, but don't freeze in your tracks. It might not be a bad idea to institute a waiting period after inheriting some money. It allows you to work through some of the emotional stages and approach a windfall with a cool head. Awhile back, one survey from a leading financial firm asked participants how they would spend a sizable windfall. Here's the shopping spree breakdown: home (31%), education (30%), vacation (10%), car (9%), help children/family members (3%), pay off debt (2%), invest it (1%). What would you do with a windfall? Consider your options now before you are faced with the array of possibilities.

Treat it like you would any other money. A dollar spends the same, no matter where it comes from. If you don't have an emergency fund, use some of your windfall to start one. Pay off your credit card debts or any other high-interest loans. Think about the future, too, and stash some of the gift away for the long term.

Don't invest like your parents. Just because you inherited a portfolio of utility companies from your parents doesn't mean that you need to keep the cash parked there. Chances are, you are in a different tax bracket than your parents and are in a different stage of life. Your investments should reflect your needs. If you don't know what to do with the money, seek the help of a trusted pro.

Carefully consider your options. For an overview of inheritor issues, check out the Inheritance Strategies discussion board, where Fools are discussing everything from how to split an inheritance to how to cash in a gold bar that pre-dates the Roosevelt administration.

With these steps, you can avoid the agitation that too often comes with an inheritance, and clear some shelf space in the guest room for your dad's prized Matchbox car collection.

Making A Winning Long-Term Stock Pick

Chris Seabury

Many investors are confused when it comes to the stock market; they have trouble figuring out which stocks are good long-term buys and which ones aren't. To invest for the long term, not only do you have to look at certain indicators, but you also have to remain focused on your long-term goals, be disciplined and understand your overall investment objectives. In this article, we tell you how to identify good long-term buys and what's needed to find them.

Focusing on the Fundamentals
There are many fundamental factors that analysts inspect to decide which stocks are good long-term buys and which are not. These factors tell you whether the company is financially healthy and whether the stock has been brought down to levels below its actual value, thus making it a good buy. The following are several strategies that you can use to determine a stock's value.

Consider Dividend Consistency
The consistency of a company's ability to pay and raise its dividend shows that it has predictability in its earnings and that it's financially stable enough to pay that dividend - the dividend comes from current or retained earnings. You'll find many different opinions on how many years you should go back to look for this consistency - some say five years, others say as many as 20 - but anywhere in this range will give you an overall idea of the dividend consistency.

Examine P/E Ratio
The price-earnings ratio (P/E) ratio is used to determine whether a stock is over- or undervalued. It's calculated by dividing the current price of the stock by the company's earnings per share (EPS). The higher the P/E ratio, the more willing some investors are to pay for those earnings. However, a higher P/E ratio is also seen as a sign that the stock is overpriced and could be due for a pullback - at the very least. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that the stock is an attractive value and that the markets have pushed shares below their actual value.

A practical way to determine whether a company is cheap relative to its industry or the markets is to compare its P/E ratio with the overall industry or market. For example, if the company has a P/E ratio of nine while the industry has a P/E ratio of 14, this would indicate that the stock is a great valuation compared with the overall industry.

Watch Fluctuating Earnings
The economy moves in cycles. Sometimes the economy is strong and earnings rise; other times, the economy is slowing and earnings fall. One way to determine whether a stock is a good long-term buy is to evaluate its past earnings and future earnings projections. If the company has a consistent history of rising earnings over a period of many years, it could be a good long-term buy.

Also, look at what the company's earnings projections are going forward. If they're projected to remain strong, this could be a sign that the company may be a good long-term buy. Alternatively, if the company is cutting future earnings guidance, this could be a sign of earnings weakness and you might want to stay away.

Avoid Valuation Traps
How do you know if a stock is a good long-term buy and not a valuation trap (the stock looks cheap but can head a lot lower)? To answer this question, you need to apply some common-sense principles, such as looking at the company's debt ratio and current ratio. Debt can work in two ways:

* During times of economic uncertainty or rising interest rates, companies with high levels of debt can experience financial problems.
* In good economic times, debt can increase a company's profitability by financing growth at a lower cost.

The debt ratio measures the amount of assets that have been financed with debt. It's calculated by dividing the company's total liabilities by its total assets. Generally,the higher the debt, the greater the possibility that the company could be a valuation trap.

But there is another tool you can use to determine the company's ability to meet these debt obligations: the current ratio. To calculate this number, you divide the company's current assets by its current liabilities. The higher the number, the more liquid is the company. For example, let's say a company has a current ratio of four. This means that the company is liquid enough to pay four times its liabilities.

By using these two ratios - the debt ratio and the current ratio - you can get a good idea as to whether the stock is a good value at its current price.

Economic Indicators
There are two ways that you can use economic indicators to understand what's happening with the markets.

Understanding Economic Conditions
The major stock market averages are considered to be forward-looking economic indicators. For example, consistent weakness in the Dow Jones Industrial Average could signify that the economy has started to top out and that earnings are starting to fall. The same thing applies if the major market averages start to rise consistently but the economic numbers are showing that the economy is still weak. As a general rule, stock prices tend to lead the actual economy in the range of six to 12 months. A good example of this is the U.S. stock market crash in 1929, which eventually led to the Great Depression.

Understand the Economic Big Picture
A good way to gauge how long-term buys relate to the economy is to use the news headlines as an economic indicator. Basically, you're using contrarian indicators from the news media to understand whether the markets are becoming overbought or oversold. A good example of this occurred in 1974, when Newsweek had a bear on the cover showing the pillars of Wall Street being knocked down. Looking back, this was clearly a sign that the markets had bottomed and stocks were relatively cheap.

In contrast, a Time magazine cover from September 27, 1999, included the phrase, "Get rich dot com" - a clear sign of troubles down the road for the markets and dotcom stocks. What this kind of thinking shows is that many people feel secure when they're in the mainstream. They reinforce these beliefs by what they hear and read in the mainstream press. This can be a sign of excessive optimism or pessimism. However, these kinds of indicators can take a year or more to become reality.

Conclusion
Investing for the long term requires patience and discipline. You may spot good long-term investments when the company or the markets haven't been performing so well. By using fundamental tools and economic indicators, you can find those hidden diamonds in the rough and avoid the potential valuation traps.

Stocks' big April could be sign of healing economy

Wall Street's big April advance could be another sign that the recession is starting to ease

Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer

NEW YORK (AP) -- April was Wall Street's best month in nine years -- offering some of the most powerful evidence yet that maybe, just maybe, the economy is about to begin a turnaround.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index, considered the most reliable measure of the broader market, climbed 9.4 percent in April, its best performance since March 2000, the peak of the dot-com bubble. The Dow Jones industrial average shot up 7.4 percent in April, on top of a 7.7 percent gain in March.

That's more than a relief for investors -- it's a potential economic indicator, because the stock market tends to get back on its feet before the economy does. In downturns over the past 60 years, the S&P hit bottom an average of four months before a recession ended and about nine months before unemployment hit its peak.

"The market is saying that the economy would hit its trough this summer," said Al Goldman, chief market strategist at Wachovia Securities in St. Louis who has spent 50 years monitoring Wall Street.

Even with the gains in March and April, the Dow is still down 42 percent from its peak in October 2007, and the S&P 500 index is off 44 percent.

Nevertheless, the mood is clearly more upbeat.

Stocks mostly held steady Thursday, the same day that Chrysler filed for bankruptcy reorganization. Only two months ago, a more jittery market would have plunged if one of the Big Three said it couldn't pay its bills.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 17.61, or 0.2 percent, to 8,168.12 Thursday. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 0.83, or 0.1 percent, to 872.81. The Nasdaq composite index rose 5.36, or 0.3 percent, to 1,717.30.

On paper at least, U.S. stocks gained nearly $1 trillion in value in April alone. And the S&P's March-April gain of 18.7 percent is its best two-month rise since 1975.

The fervent hope among many investors and policymakers is that Wall Street itself will help the larger economy along. The same psychology that led many people to cut their spending following last fall's frightening stock plunge could work in reverse, boosting confidence in the economy and making Americans feel more comfortable about spending.

The rally began in March when Citigroup surprised investors by announcing it had made money in the first two months of the year. Other banks followed suit, and last week many big banks posted results that weren't as bad as feared. In April, economic readings on home construction, retail sales and orders for manufactured goods improved or at least didn't slide as quickly as they did during the meltdown last fall.

"The market has been playing its role as an economic fortune teller," said Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist at Northern Trust in Chicago.

Of course, sometimes the market speaks too soon. For example, it jumped 20 percent from late November to the start of January only to slide to new lows by early March when more bad economic news arrived.

This time, bank stocks, which led Wall Street to its devastating losses last year, are leading the market higher. Financial stocks in the S&P 500 index are up 74 percent since early March.

Of course, percentages can be misleading. The 200 percent gain in Citigroup's stock in less than two months -- from $1 to $3 -- might not feel as rewarding for an investor who held the bank's shares a year ago when they were worth $27. And the recovery in stocks is never a straight line upward; stocks could very well fall back somewhat.

"I think the market rally that we're seeing is a little bit of false euphoria," said Stephanie Giroux, chief investment strategist at the brokerage TD Ameritrade. "When the market starts to digest that the less bad isn't going to be enough, you'll see it maybe take a breather for a while."

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